Ben Bill Ben Nelson
(PDF). 9/30-10/2. Nebraska voters. MoE ±3.6% (
1/26-27 in parens):
Ben Nelson (D-inc): 42 (39)
Jon Bruning (R): 46 (50)
Undecided: 12 (11)
Ben Nelson (D-inc): 41 (41)
Don Stenberg (R): 44 (45)
Undecided: 15 (14)
Ben Nelson (D-inc): 41 (42)
Deb Fischer (R): 39 (35)
Undecided: 20 (22)
Ben Nelson (D-inc): 43 (42)
Pat Flynn (R): 36 (33)
Undecided: 21 (24)
Hark to the tale of the Nelsons (and the netroots who did not love either of them dear)! Two PPP Senate polls out today involve the oft-confused Nelsons (Ben of Nebraska, the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus and the most frequent monkeywrench in attempts to get progressive legislation out of the Senate last cycle ... and Bill of Florida, also on the right flank of Senate Democrats but more of a moderate and certainly more of a team player). Their futures look decidedly different, with Ben on track to be the likeliest Democratic incumbent casualty of 2012 and Bill still looking pretty safe.
Let's start with the bad news for Ben Nelson: His approvals are even worse than they were in PPP's last poll from January. They're down to 36/55 from 39/50, which ties him for the distinction of least popular sitting senator according to PPP. (At least that's good news for John McCain, who no longer has the bottom to himself.)
On the other hand, there's a bright spot here for Nelson, too: He's polling much closer to the Republican frontrunner, AG Jon Bruning, than he was in January. Thanks to a variety of moments over the last half a year where Bruning either was exposed as insufficiently pure or otherwise just stuck his foot in his mouth (as with his most recent defense of his lake house, co-owned with two officials of a student loan company that he has been strangely favorable to in the past), Bruning's favorables have dwindled even faster than Nelson's. They're underwater too, at 32/38, down from a strong 42/26 in January. As you can see, by the way, Nelson's numbers have barely budged against second-banana Don Stenberg (the state's treasurer and former AG) and gotten worse against the no-names, Nelson's semi-surge is entirely Bruning-specific.
This reminds PPP's Tom Jensen of another politician who won a tough race last year despite deeply negative approvals, thanks to an embarrassing, self-destructing opponent and a disciplined, relentlessly negative campaign against that opponent. That man, of course, was Harry Reid, and Reid's grind-it-out-example may give Nelson a path forward.
Jon Bruning (R): 37 (47)
Don Stenberg (R): 16 (19)
Deb Fischer (R): 14 (6)
Pat Flynn (R): 6 (7)
Undecided: 27 (20)
In the Republican primary field (January results), you can see some of the same erosion for Bruning ... although that support hasn't gone to Stenberg, his main rival. Instead, it seems to have migrated partly to state Sen. Deb Fischer, a late entrant who's aiming her pitch to the rural counties, and partly to undecided. In a straight-up Bruning/Stenberg contest, Bruning might have trouble (especially with various national-level teabag organizations offering varying levels of support for Stenberg), but with a split field he's still in command.
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/22-25. Florida voters. MoE ±4.5% (6/16-19 in parens):
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (--)
Mike McCalister (R): 34 (--)
Undecided: 19 (--)
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (46)
George LeMieux (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 15 (19)
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (47)
Adam Hasner (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 16 (19)
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (--)
Craig Miller (R): 32 (--)
Undecided: 19 (--)
It's a very different story in Florida, where Bill Nelson looks like he's on track to win reelection, sporting mid-teens leads against all Republican opponents. That's despite a 40/32 approval, which is in positive territory but kind of lackluster ... but it presents a similar profile as Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania, thanks to some disapproval among liberal Democrats but decent crossover from Republicans. Those disapproving Democrats mostly say they'll vote for Nelson, though, and that's what's propelling him to big leads. Well, that, and the unknownness of his opposition (his best-known opponent, former appointed Sen. George LeMieux, is only 31 percent known). Interestingly, the one who performs the best against Nelson isn't one of the career politicians in the field but rather tea-flavored retired colonel Mike McCalister (although the difference is small enough to be meaningless).
Mike McCalister (R): 17
George LeMieux (R): 13
Adam Hasner (R): 9
Craig Miller (R): 3
Undecided: 58
In the Republican primary, McCalister is the surprising leader over the three establishment candidates (LeMieux, former state House speaker Hasner, and restaurant industry executive Miller, who's running out-and-proud as the country-club Republican in the field). We don't have trendlines, but Quinnipiac, several weeks ago, found a similar 58 percent undecided, but with LeMieux at 17, McCalister at 11, and Hasner and Miller at 5. The short explanation: No one knows who the heck these guys (even their former senator) are, and McCalister seems to have carried over some goodwill from his third-wheel performance in last year's gubernatorial primary, where he was the least vomit-inducing option among Rick Scott and Bill McCollum.
