Indiana and Kentucky both have elections this year. Kentucky is electing statewide officials and Indiana is electing mayors and city councils. Here is a preview of both states with ratings. The incumbent party in the race is listed first.
Kentucky
Governor: Gov. Steve Beshear (D), State Senate President David Williams (R), and Gatewood Galbraith (I)
David Williams has had this problem during the campaign: people don't like him. In fact, the more people get to know about him, the bigger Steve Beshear's lead gets. Williams had little money, so his father in law created a shadowy group called Restoring America to attack Beshear and dumped over $3 million to finance it. He tried to hide his identity, but relented when a judge in Frankfort pulled the ads for violation of Kentucky campaign finance laws. Williams claims there was no coordination. Judge for yourself. The "Bully from Burkesville" is going down hard. The only question is the margin. Some polls have suggested it could be by more than 30 points. Will his enormous defeat push someone in the Senate to oust him as President? Probably not likely since most GOP Senators are afraid of him. Here is the only question I have in the race: Fletcher lost by 18 points and carried 28 counties. How many will David Williams be left with? My guess is 15, all in Southern Kentucky, except Lewis County. SAFE DEMOCRAT
Attorney General: Jack Conway (D-Inc.) and Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool (R)
Republicans really had a lot of hope here after Conway's 10 point loss to Rand Paul last year. P'Pool has attracted national Republicans campaigning for him, and has tried to run against President Obama, but the latest polling shows he has not made a dent in Conway, who in one poll, gets a higher number than Gov. Beshear. This should be an easy one for the home team. SAFE DEMOCRAT
Secretary of State: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) and Bill Johnson (R)
The Democrat here beat appointed incumbent Elaine Walker in the primary and is the daughter of Jerry Lundergan, the former State Democratic Party Chairman. She is a young attractive candidate that has run some of the best ads of the season in this area. The Republican is on the extreme right. When he was running for the U.S. Senate in 2010 before he dropped out, he called President Obama "a threat to the nation" at Fancy Farm. His only claim to fame this year was complaining about homeless people voting, which even got a smackdown from Trey Grayson. Republicans clearly blew it here. Grimes led by about 10 in the latest poll with a great number undecided, but that was before her "grandmother" ad. She should win easily. SAFE DEMOCRAT
State Treasurer: Todd Hollenbach (D-Inc.) and Lexington Council Member K.C. Crosbie (R)
Republicans seemed to have had high hopes for Crosbie, but she has not impressed. Hollenbach, who has a famous name in Jefferson County has easily led in the race and there are few signs that will change. This will be a big margin for him. SAFE DEMOCRAT
State Auditor of Public Accounts: Former Beshear Chief of Staff Adam Edelen (D) and John Kemper (R)
If you are running for Auditor, having two bankruptcies are not an attractive trait, which was been driven home against Kemper. Edelen has taken advantage of his big finanicial edge and has expanded his lead. There are a number of undecided voters, but the Beshear landslide should easily put Edelen over the top. SAFE DEMOCRAT
State Commissioner of Agriculture: State Rep. James Comer (R) and Bob Farmer (D)
Bob Farmer is running some slick ads now and Comer is attacking Farmer for some remarks he made about Eastern Kentucky. Farmer benefits from his name, but is by far the weakest Democrat on the ticket, but it might not matter. This race tightened somewhat, but it is going to be hard for Comer to overcome the top of the ticket. Comer is touting being endorsed by the Courier-Journal, a paper that rarely endorses Republicans. This is the race to watch in Kentucky on election night. LEAN DEMOCRAT
Indiana
Let's face it, the Democratic Party in Indiana is pretty pathetic. No Senators, only three House seats, which may dwindle to 2 next time. Only 13 State Senate seats out of 50 and 40 State House seats out of 100, which may go down even more after redistricting. Plus, no statewide offices or control of Indianapolis. Add to that numerous local offices lost across the state in 2010, especially in Southern Indiana. Pretty sad. The only bright spot right now are some of the Democratic mayors. The big three this year are Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne, and Evansville. Either side could sweep all of them. If Republicans do this, the Democratic Party will be with less power than they have ever had in the state in a long time. The entire Democratic Party in Indiana had been under the thumb of Evan Bayh since 1988. Now they are on their own. You might think Evan Bayh might let loose of some of his $11 million he is still sitting on to help a few races here? You may notice a lot of Libertarian candidates. They have their own automatic line on the ballot.
Indianapolis Mayor: Mayor Greg Ballard (R) and Melina Kennedy (D) and Chris Bowen (L)
Greg Ballard is somewhat of an accidental mayor, having surprised Bart Peterson in 2007 after the property tax revolt in Marion County. Indianapolis covers nearly all of the county except Lawrence, Speedway, Beech Grove and Southport. This county in 2008 voted 64% for Obama but 57% for Daniels. It is amazing that in just 1996, Bob Dole won here, so the county moves more Democratic everyday as Republicans move to the suburbs. Democrats nominated Melina Kennedy, the deputy mayor under Peterson and the losing 2006 Democratic candidate for Prosecutor. This race may come down to turnout. The Carsons have a strong turnout operation in the black community, and there will be early voting on Sunday, a traditional day for black turnout after church. Kennedy also has won the endorsement of the Republican Indianapolis Star. There has been only one public poll, showing Ballard ahead 44-33. Early voting is twice what it was four years ago, which is a great sign for Kennedy, since early voting in Indiana favors Democrats. TOSSUP
Indianapolis City-County Council Control- R-15, D-13, L-1
Democrats need to gain two seats to regain the Council control. Members are still running in the old districts. The main place Democrats can gain is the four at-large seats which are current 3-1 Republican. Those seats almost always go 4-0 to the party that wins the mayor's race, but that was not the case in 2007. Ballard could win with no coattails. Democrats have a few other district seats they are actively pursuing as well. LEAN DEMOCRAT CONTROL (PICKUP)
Fort Wayne: Mayor Tom Henry (D) and Allen County Commissioner Liz Hughes (R)
Henry got elected four years before due in large part to Matt Kelty getting the GOP nomination and then getting indicted. When former Mayor Graham Richard annexed Aboite Township, the city of Ft. Wayne got a lot more Republican. The GOP thinks they can win here and Hughes is getting a lot of money. It comes down to the GOP lean of the city versus people generally approving of Henry. TOSSUP
Evansville: Vanderburgh County Treasurer Rick Davis (D) and Vanderburgh County Commissioner Lloyd Winnecke (R)
I am worried here. Evansville has done annexing as well and this has added more Republicans. Democrats here are divided, with two Democratic city councilmen endorsing Winnecke. Mayor Weinzapfel is also fairly silent here, but many think he is for Winnecke. Davis has serious problems and this is slipping away from him quickly. TOSSUP
Muncie: Mayor Sharon McShurley (R) and Rep. Dennis Tyler (D)
This is a race Democrats should win. McShurley won only after the GOP controlled county election board disqualified some Democratic ballots on technicalities. She has had to impose massive budget cuts and can't get along with the City Council. She is not popular. However, Delaware County Democrats are notoriously divided, so that could give her an opening. LEAN DEMOCRAT (PICKUP)
Anderson- Mayor Kris Ockoman (D) vs. former Mayor Kevin Smith (R) and Rob Jozwiak (L)
This is a rematch of the bitter 2007 election. Ockoman has had problems over his term, but will voters want to put Smith back in office? TOSSUP
New Castle- John Nipp (R) vs. Greg York (D) and Debra Baker (I)
GOP Mayor Jim Small is not running for reelection, and Democrats hope to regain the mayor's where they held it for most of the last 60 years. TOSSUP
Terre Haute- Mayor Duke Bennett (R) vs. Fred Nation (D)
Bennett won a surprise victory in 2007, defeating Democrat Kevin Burke. Then he had to fight off potential Hatch Act violations. He now faces former Evan Bayh aide Fred Nation. This is a strongly Democratic city, but will voters throw out Bennett? TOSSUP
West Lafayette- Mayor John Dennis (R) vs. John Polles (D)
Those of you in Indiana should recognize Polles, who blew the HD-26 open seat in 2008 in a district where President Obama won nearly 60%. But this is Tippecanoe County, where the local Democratic Party's ability to win elections is pathetic, losing every office in 2008. However, West Lafayette is competitive, so this will be too. TOSSUP
South Bend- Pete Buttigeig (D) vs. Wayne Curry (R) vs. Patrick Farrell (L)
This is an easy one for Buttigeig, who ran for State Treasurer last year. He is very young and is a potential rising star for Democrats. SAFE DEMOCRAT
Mishawaka- Mayor Dave Wood (R) vs. Rep. Craig Fry (D)
Rep. Fry is running here and it is not going so well for him. If he does lose, he will have to run in a more GOP friendly state House district. Mishawaka is not nearly as Democratic as next door South Bend. LEAN REPUBLICAN
Columbus- Priscilla Scalf (D) vs. Kristen Brown (R)
Longtime Democratic Mayor Fred Armstrong is retiring in Republican leaning Columbus. Scalf has his backing as well as several Republicans. But will it be enough? But either way, Columbus will have its first female mayor. TOSSUP
Jasper- Former County Commissioner John Burger (D) vs. Terry Seitz (R) vs. Jeff Steffen (I)
This is a relatively small city, but I picked it since it is an open seat. Will Democrats hold it or are Republicans continuing to rise in Southern Indiana. This race and Jeffersonville will help to answer that question this year. TOSSUP
New Albany: City Councilman Jeff Gahan (D), D.M. Bagshaw (R), Jack Messer (I), Thomas Keister (L)
These races in New Albany and Jeffersonville may have one problem with turnout: the Sherman Minton Bridge is closed and commuting to Louisville has moved from a short drive to a one to two hour nightmare to get across the Kennedy Bridge or 2nd Street Bridge. While Floyd County is moved to the Republicans, New Albany has continued to shrink. Doug England managed to defeat popular former Sheriff Randy Hubbard four years ago. England switched to running for the city council this year, but his hand-picked successor lost the primary to City Councilman Jeff Gahan. The England people quickly got behind Gahan. There is a four way race here, with a Republican, a Libertarian, and a Democratic City Councilman Jeff Messer, who was suspended from the New Albany Police Department for racist remarks. Republicans only appointed their candidate after no GOP candidate filed in the primary. The only Republican hope is a divided vote, but it isn't likely to happen. SAFE DEMOCRAT
Jeffersonville: Mayor Tom Galligan (D), County Commissioner Mike Moore (R), and former Surveyor Bob Isgrigg (L)
Galligan easily won a four way primary and now faces Moore, who switched parties to run as a Republican when he saw he couldn't win the Democratic primary. Galligan supports a canal in Jeffersonville. There was a big annexation which added more Republicans to the city, but this is still fairly Democratic. After the drubbing Clark County Democrats took in 2010, they will look to city and town elections to make a comeback. Isgrigg is courting the Tea Party, so the right vote may split. LIKELY DEMOCRAT
