Since both the House and Senate maps were rejected by the Colorado Supreme Court (bad call in my opinion), the Reapportionment Commission met yesterday and voted today on both a new Senate map and a new House map to submit back to the Court.
Overall I'm not a fan of the obsession with county lines. In any of the more populous counties city boundaries matter much more, the attention to county lines is actually proving to be detrimental to keeping communities of interest together as the urban areas grow.
The good thing that came out of this, however, is the commission voted in favor of the Democratic maps in both cases. Both cut the number of county splits down to a bare minimum and so they had the best argument for passage of their maps. Those maps (House Fv1 and Senate Ev1) can all be found here.
The maps were both approved by a 6-5 margin, with the unaffiliated chair siding with Democrats. Republicans are of course attacking the chair saying he planned to adopt a Democratic map the entire time. This is amusing since they passed a compromise map the first time that was thrown out by the court. So the Chair must have colluded with Democrats to pass a compromise map they knew would be thrown out so they could pass their own gerrymander... riiiigghhttt..
The details on the new House map can be found below:
Here's how the Democratic map (Fv1) breaks down by Bennet numbers as I did with previous versions, I put the current district percentages in parenthesis. Since almost everything got tweaked in the House I went ahead and did a run down of all districts again.
HD1 - Labuda (D) - 56%-38% (55%-39%) This district remains the south-west Denver district, but picks up Latino areas from HD2 to become Hispanic Majority.
HD2 - Ferrandino (D) - 73%-23% (76%-18%) This district loses all of it's west-side Latino areas and picks up the DU area from HD3, Capitol Hill from HD5 and Wash Park from HD6 to become a solidly white liberal (and pretty gay) district. This differed from the Democratic maps in taking out all of the west side instead of most.
HD4 - Pabon (D) - 76%-18% (76%-19%) Little change, grows to add population. Hispanic Majority.
HD5 - Duran (D) - 75%-20% (77%-18%) Loses much of Capitol Hill, while picking up all of the Hispanic territory that belonged to HD2, making it Hispanic Majority.
HD6 - Court (D) - 68%-29% (67%-29%) Losing turf to the south-west, this district becomes very East and Lowry centered.
HD7 - Williams (D) - 79%-18% (78%-19%) Shrinks for population growth in Stapleton, but 40% Hispanic and 30% Black, it remains a minority-dominated district.
HD8 - McCann (D) - 84%-13% (84%-13%) Takes in Cheesman Park and northern East Colfax, this district is majority white, but still most Democratic in the State.
HD9 - OPEN (D) - 61%-34% (61%-34%) This district remains Democratic and centered on south-east Denver.
HD33 - OPEN (R) - 51%-44% (50%-45%) A narrow victory for Republicans in 2010, this district moved to the right under the Republican maps, taking in all of Erie. Under this latest version, it takes in Superior and Erie in Boulder County for a slight leftward bump.
HD10 - Hullinghorst (D) - 79%-17% (75%-21%) After several incarnations during this process, this district now takes up most of Boulder and the ironically named town of Gunbarrel. Safe Democratic.
HD11 - OPEN (D) - 54%-40% (59%-36%) This district was also put through the ringer, this version gives HD11 almost all of Longmont plus more liberal rural towns around the county. Other versions made this a tossup, now this district leans Democratic.
HD12 - OPEN (D) - 62%-33% (64%-30%) The settled version of this district looks almost exactly like the old, but no longer takes in Erie in Boulder County.
HD13 - Levy (D) V. Baumgardner (R) - 67%-28% (70%-25%) One happy result from all this county-splits business, HD13 was forced to take in Republican-leaning Grand and Jackson Counties, including the home of Rep. Baumgardner, he has no chance in this district.
El Paso County:
HD14 - Joshi (R) - 26%-70% (30%-65%) El Paso County was fixed to make it less Colorado Springs-centric like the Court asked. This district is now the Northgate/Briargate district in northern Colorado Springs. Blood red is an understatement for this district.
HD15 - Waller (R) - 30%-63% (30%-63%) Surprisingly similar to it's current incarnation, HD15 takes in all of eastern Colorado Springs to keep the city out of HD19
HD16 - OPEN (R) - 34%-60% (37%-63%) Losing all its Democratic precincts, this district sits in north-central Colorado Springs and is solidly Republican.
HD17 - Barker (R) - 46%-46% (46%-45%) As swingy as it gets in El Paso County, this district is majority minority (55% total). Turnout varies widely here. Hopefully we can reclaim this one in 2012.
HD18 - Lee (D) - 52%-42% (55%-39%) The only Democratic district in El Paso County, this district had to grow and so took in more Democratic and more Republican areas, it still keeps its Democratic tilt, but Lee barely held this district in 2010 when it was open.
HD19 - Looper (R) v. Stephens (R) - 22%-73% (24%-72%) The first casualties to the resubmitted map. This district now takes in more than 1/2 of Majority Leader Amy Stephen's old HD20 to avoid taking in Colorado Springs. I don't know what chance Looper has here, she was one of the better Republicans and it will be a shame to lose her to Miss Focus on the Family.
HD20 - Gardner, B. (R) - 35%-61% (36%-59%) This district retains it's heart in the Broadmoor and Rockrimmon areas of Colorado Springs, but now it takes in the rest of the old HD20, including the Air Force Academy.
HD21 - OPEN (R) - 38%-54% (33%-59%) Almost like a new district, HD21 is centered around the southern El Paso cities that aren't Colorado Springs as well as Fort Carson. Solidly Republican.
HD22 - OPEN (R) - 42%-52% (42%-53%)This district changed a lot throughout the process, but at the end remains centered around Littleton in Jefferson County and is just out of reach for Democrats.
HD23 - Tyler (D) - 53%-42% (54%-40%) While the Republican map made him safer, this district makes the district more competitive. It loses Golden and adds the western parts of old HD26.
HD24 - Schafer (D) - 53%-41% (54%-39%) This Wheat Ridge-based district gains Golden, while losing all of it's Arvada portion, still Democratic leaning.
HD25 - Gerou (R) - 45%-50% (44%-51%) After a flirtation with adding the other foothills counties to this district, that idea was on the Supreme Court chopping block. It goes back similar to what it was minus a few red areas. Still a strong Republican lean.
HD27 - Szabo (R) - 46%-49% (46%-48%) This district loses more of eastern Arvada and is centered around the more conservative western Arvada. This Republican-leaning district is winnable, but I don't see Szabo getting the boot any time soon.
HD28 - Summers (R) v. Kerr (D) - 52%-43% (n/a) With Jefferson County losing a seat, this seat combines parts of HD26 and HD22 and was drawn to pit incumbents Andy Kerr (D) and Ken Summers (R) against each other. While Republican maps took in more of Summers' turf, making registration even, this Democatic map made it more 50/50 in territory than performance, so this district has a slight Democratic lean. With the Senate map that was passed today, however, Kerr may run for State Senate instead.
HD29 - Ramirez (R) - 51%-42% (50%-43%) This was the seat that flipped control of the House to Republicans. While the Republican map tried to shore him up, Carrera went with the Democrats on this district as well, making it slightly more Democratic and highly competitive.
HD30 - OPEN (R) - 50%-43% (47%-45%) Another district with many incarnations, in the end it's the old HD30 without Brighton and so a few points more Democratic and more importantly without it's Republican incumbent!
HD31 - OPEN (D) - 51%-42% (47%-47%) Almost all of Adams County's districts were turned into tossups, here's another centered in Northglenn that was actually made more Democratic than it currently is.
HD32 - OPEN (D) - 58%-33% (54%-48%) This seat moves from plurality-Hispanic to a Hispanic majority district and remains Democratic, the changes take in precintcts from the south and lose precincts to the north.
HD34 - OPEN (D) - 51%-41% (52%-40%) In the submitted map, this district had been made majority hispanic and safe, in this version it's 34% hispanic and a tossup.
HD35 - Peniston (D) - 51%-43% (56%-36%) This Westminster in Adams County district was made swingy in every version, this was the least so. Still a tossup.
HD56 - Priola (R) - 38%-56% (n/a) In one of the more obviously partisan moves, this district stretches from Brighton around outer and rural Adams to rural Arapahoe County, making it incredibly Republican and safe for Priola, getting him out of the way of Democrats.
HD3 - Kagan (D) - 50%-45% (61%-34%) This district changes dramatically. With slower growth in Denver, a seat loss was necessary, so this district drops the DU areas of Denver and picks up Sheridan, Greenwood village, and some of northern Littleton and Centennial. Denver County was what kept this district so blue, it is now very swingy, though not as much as in other versions.
HD36 - Ryden (D) - 52%-42% (56%-38%) Another district destined to be a swing district with all the changes, this eastern Aurora district cedes a lot of turf to the other 3 Aurora districts to become a Democratic-leaning district instead of a safe one.
HD37 - Swalm (R) - 45%-51% (46%-50%) This district grabs all of contiguous Centennial that isn't in HD38, leans Republican and probably out of reach for now.
HD38 - Conti (R) - 45%-50% (46%-49%) One of the more compact districts, this one is Littleton and Centennial and leans Republican, only a Joe Rice type of Democrat could take it.
HD40 - Acree (R) - 51%-42% (38%-55%) A dramatic change, this was the best possible version, moving this district from a solid Republican one Democrats do very well in. Look for a tough fight here.
HD41 - OPEN (D) - 57%-38% (58%-37%) After everything, this district ends up looking as similar to it's old self as possible, south-west Aurora, very Democratic.
HD42 - Fields (D) - 62%-32% (61%-32%) Rhonda Fields has to be thrilled that her district ended up nearly the same after all the initial changes. 43% Hispanic and 21% Black, this district is a strong minority and Democratic district.
HD39 - NEW - 33%-63% (n/a) This is the new seat for Douglas County, which has had massive growth since the last census. This is basically the parts of HD45 not in Castle Rock. Safe Republican.
HD43 - McNulty (R) - 40%-57% (39%-57%) Remains Highlands Ranch-based and solidly Republican.
HD44 - Holbert (R) - 36%-60% (35%-60%) Shrinks to be Parker and Lone Tree-based, still solid Republican.
HD45 - Murray (R) - 32%-63% (32%-64%) Shrinks to be centered on Castle Rock, like the rest of Douglas County, solid Republican.
HD46 - OPEN (D) - 54%-41% (62%-33%) Giving up turf to HD47 and moving into Pueblo West and the rural county, this district drops in Democratic performance, but still leans towards Democrats.
HD47 - Swerdfeger? (R) - 45%-49% (44%-51%) I'm actually not sure at first glance if Swerdfeger lives here or in HD46, either way this district didn't get as competitive as Democrats initially tried for, just as well, this region is drifting away from Democrats.
HD48 - OPEN (R) - 34%-61% (36%-58%) Also taking on many forms, this not-east-Greeley district now centers around HD50 and is solidly Republican.
HD50 - Young (D) - 46%-48% (46%-47%) This district needed to expand some for population, but remains incredibly swingy and exactly the way Democrats wanted it to be. It is barely plurality white (48-47%) over Hispanic, freshman Dave Young will have a tough time, but not nearly as tough as Republicans tried for.
HD63 - OPEN (R) - 36%-57% (n/a) The next casualty of this map was the incumbent for this district, since he lives in Morgan County, all other maps placed that county in this district, but the attention to county-splits doomed that.
HD49 - OPEN (R) - 40%-54% (41%-54%) This rural Larimer and Windsor-based district is now incumbent-less, but still safe Republican.
HD51 - Nikkel (R) v. DelGrosso (R) (R) - 40%-53% (40%-53%) This one is my favorite, not for it's lean, but because it pairs 2 of the civil unions-killers together in one district, not sure if it was entirely on purpose, but a happy byproduct anyway in this Loveland-based district.
HD52 - OPEN (D) - 54%-41% (56%-38%) Only recently a Democratic seat, this eastern Fort Collins district should be a hold for Democrats, though not as solid as before with the loss of it's northwestern portion.
HD53 - Fischer (D) - 58%-36% (57%-38%) Western Fort Collins (CSU), solid Democratic. No change.
HD26 - NEW - 54%-41% (n/a) A district created entirely to preserve counties, it leans Democratic and should elect one.
HD54 - Scott (R) v. Bradford (R) - 28%-64% (30%-62%) When crazies collide! Now both Mesa County Representatives have been put in the same district that excludes Grand Junction to reduce city-splits.
HD55 - OPEN (R) - 36%-58% (33%-60%) No incumbent and more Democratic than before, not that it matter when we're in the 30s. This Grand Junction-based district is safe Republican.
HD57 - Wilson (D) - 39%-54% (39%-54%) The one Democratic casualty to this map, Rep. Wilson of Glenwood Springs finds his home placed with the rest of Garfield County and the 2 uber-Republican northwest corner counties. Counties suck, hope he moves!
HD58 - Coram (R) - 35%-58% (36%-56%) This district just smooths out its edges, leaving only one county-split in Delta. Safe Republican.
HD59 - Brown (R) - 48%-47% (46%-49%) Democrats found another way to make this district more competitive, it leaves out Montezuma County and divides Gunnison with HD61. A definite tossup now.
HD60 - OPEN (R) - 38%-55% (39%-53%) Very similar to it's current form, this central Colorado district is definitely safe Republican.
HD61 - Hamner (D) - 53%-41% (57%-36%) Millie Hamner was faced with a tougher race anyway, but now 3 new counties to deal with, but odds are definitely in her favor or any other Democrat running here.
HD62 - Vigil (D) - 56%-39% (57%-36%) This district was agreed upon in every version of the House map, majority Hispanic, it's make up is sacrosanct and it is solidly Democratic.
HD64 - OPEN (D) - 32%-62% (42%-51%) This district looks ugly, but it doesn't divide a single county, be careful what you wish for. Safe Republian.
HD65 - Sonnenberg (R) v. Becker (R) - 31%-63% (29%-65%) The final casualty of this map. Rep. Becker's home in Morgan County is now in the same district as Rep. Sonnenberg, who lives in Logan County. Not sure who will win that one, but the victor in the primary gets the prize in this safe Republican district.
Current House Map:
Solid D: 23 (Bennet 55%+)
Lean D: 6 (Bennet 54%-52%)
Tossups: 5 (Bennet 51%-47%)
Lean R: 9 (Bennet 46%-44%)
Solid R: 22 (Bennet 43%-)
First Submitted House Map:
Solid D: 19
Lean D: 9
Lean R: 8
Solid R: 22
Resubmitted House Map:
Solid D: 16
Lean D: 10
Lean R: 7
Solid R: 22
I like this map a lot, though I'm not a huge fan of obedience to county lines. Looking at where all the seats lean it's even better because at our peak in the House we held all solid and leaning Democratic seats, as well as 4 of 5 tossups, 4 of 9 leaning Republican seats and 2 solid Republican seats. So this map expands the playing field quite a bit for us. I don't see how Republicans hold the house in 2012 unless it's a miserable year all around.
12:42 PM PT: Another Republican casualty of this map, Rep. Summers actually lives in HD23 where Rep. Max Tyler lives. Andy Kerr was also moved into HD23, so the pressure for him to run for State Senate probably increases even more! That leaves the Democratic-leaning HD28 totally open!