Intrade online prediction market, 12/20/2011
When we looked less than two weeks ago about Iowa indecision (despite Newt's surge to the top) and the ascent of Ron Paul, the establishment conservatives were keeping their powder dry. That's certainly changed.
Newt's been in the crossfires, and the huge amount of dollars spent by Romney and Perry to take him down are having an effect, and not just on Newt's poll position. Public displays ranging from anxiety to flat-out panic on the GOP side by Republicans and movement conservatives are becoming more and more common. Here are a few examples:
National Journal:
Several Insiders predicted a Gingrich meltdown that would leave Romney the ultimate victor.
"The national media will have a feeding frenzy once Newt wins Iowa," said a Democratic Insider. "It will throw the entire nominating process into turmoil. Romney will be the last man standing."
Some Republicans shared that view, but paired it with concerns about Romney's general election prospects.
"Newt will ultimately blow himself up," said one, "and Romney will become the Bob Dole of 2012." Lamented another, "Sadly, out of a pathetic field, Romney will be voted least pathetic. Unfortunately, he's also least likely to beat Obama."
And while most political insiders think it's Romney's to lose, this is
not Clinton-Obama 2008:
Prolonged 2012 Primary Risky for GOP
“Having a robust primary that concludes in early spring is a healthy thing for our eventual nominee,” Gentry Collins, former political director for the RNC, told Roll Call. “But I think having a long, drawn-out primary that lasts until late spring or early summer leaves us financially flat-footed. That’s clearly going to be problematic for our nominee if it goes that long.”
Yet that situation appears increasingly likely as new polling shows that early state Republicans remain undecided about their nominee.
If you wanted something more pointed, you can read Mark Steyn's
Tweedlemitt and Tweedlenewt:
It’s a tragedy that the Republican nomination has dwindled down to a choice not worth making. Yet not a single real vote has yet been cast. Iowa and New Hampshire will do us all a favor if they look beyond the frontrunners and keep genuinely conservative candidates in the game.
And are they worried about Ron Paul? Yes (they are) and no (they say they're not). This, from
Ramesh Ponnuru, writing for Bloomberg:
It is possible that Paul will come in first in a fractured field in the Iowa caucuses: Those caucuses reward intensity of support, which he certainly has. The notion that he will be the Republican nominee is too absurd to spend a moment contemplating.
How about
George Will?
At a minimum, a Paul [third party] candidacy would force the Republican nominee to spend time and money in places he otherwise might be able to economize both. And a Paul candidacy would make 2012 much easier for Obama than 2008 was. Now, reread Paul’s words quoted above, particularly these: “right now” and “in a month or two.”
You know Ron Paul's hit their radar when articles like this from the
NY Times start appearing:
New Focus on Incendiary Words in Paul’s Newsletters
And from
Politico:
The alarms are sounding in Iowa.
Conservatives and Republican elites in the state are divided over who to support for the GOP nomination, but they almost uniformly express concern over the prospect that Ron Paul and his army of activist supporters may capture the state’s 2012 nominating contest — an outcome many fear would do irreparable harm to the future role of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.
Of course, if you listen to
the talking heads, there is no Republican establishment:
But what, exactly, is this “establishment” they speak of?
“Well, you’ll also hear talk about the Loch Ness Monster, but I don’t believe in it and I don’t believe in a Republican establishment, which once was real, exists in any meaningful sense as a coherent and effective political force,” conservative commentator George Will told The Daily Caller, dismissing the entire notion that there even is an establishment.
Heh. From the same article:
Asked to name names, Codevilla said to find the establishment, all you have to do is use Google.
“Just Google attacks on Newt Gingrich over the last week,” he said.
Indeed. Call them what you will (and "elite" sounds just fine), they are not happy about Newt and Paul spoiling their party. But they have only themselves to blame, as
EJ Dionne points out:
It is one of the true delights of a bizarrely entertaining Republican presidential contest to watch the apoplectic fear and loathing of so many GOP establishmentarians toward Newt Gingrich. They treat him as an alien body whose approach to politics they have always rejected.
In fact, Gingrich’s rise is the revenge of a Republican base that takes seriously the intense hostility to President Obama, the incendiary accusations against liberals and the Manichaean division of the world between an “us” and a “them” that his party has been peddling in the interest of electoral success.
It couldn't happen to a nicer group of people.
