brooklynbadboy wrote a diary yesterday that praised the president for finally getting tough with Republicans. He cited this quote from Obama in an interview with CBS:
"I cannot guarantee that those checks go out on August 3 if we haven't resolved this issue, because there may simply not be the money in the coffers to do it," Obama said in an interview scheduled to air on the CBS Evening News Tuesday evening.
According to BBB, this was a sign that Obama was "finally using a shrewd political gambit" and "upping the ante."
By sending out word through two important elements of the body politic, seniors and veterans, the President is daring the Republicans to cut money off to both groups. That's how its done. That is called presidential leadership.
Because of his wide executive discretion in this area, the President could choose to pay Social Security and veterans benefits, and just cut off defense contractors and other federal contractors. Him threatening to do it this way is a move to rile up a broad swath of the electorate. Voters who vote in both parties. That is how you combine the power of the office with the megaphone. He can pick and choose who to piss off and where to point the finger. By picking these folks, he can capitalize of the GOP's bluffing and force them to fold or pay up. Either way, he benefits politically with gambits like this. 70 million missing checks = 70 million voters pissed off at Republicans.
There's just one problem with this analysis: Obama didn't say "I cannot guarantee that those checks go out on August 3 if Republicans don't agree to tax increases."
What he said is that those checks may not go out "if we haven't resolved this issue."
In fact, Obama has said repeatedly that both sides must make concessions:
And it is possible for us to construct a package that would be balanced, would share sacrifice, would involve both parties taking on their sacred cows, would involved some meaningful changes to Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid that would preserve the integrity of the programs and keep our sacred trust with our seniors
All along, Obama has been working not just Republicans, but Democrats as well who are strongly opposed to any cuts in Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.
To assume that the threat of not sending out Social Security checks, a shrewd move indeed, if you can call it that, is directed only at Republicans is a projection. Remember the timeline:
Jul. 6 - Washington Post publishesstory on Obama's plan to sell cuts to Social Security and Medicare to top Democrats in exchange for new tax "revenue".
Jul. 7 - The very next morning Nancy Pelosi drew a line in the sand:
After a contentious White House meeting with President Obama and other Congressional leaders, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) returned to the Capitol and drew an important red line: Members of her caucus won't vote for a grand bargain to raise the debt limit and reduce future deficits if the final deal includes cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits -- and that means it probably won't pass.
Pelosi Digs In
Even today, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, Pelosi claims she has dug in and will not budge on cuts to SS and Medicare. So Obama has a lot of persuading to do, on both sides of the aisle.
So while Obama's threat/warning about old people not getting their SS checks may have appeared to be framed within an "Obama vs. Republicans" narrative at that point in the interview, in the broader context of this dept ceiling battle, and even in the broader context of the CBS interview, Obama is clearly triangulated between both parties in Congress.
So who is Obama's gambit directed at? Are those 70 million recipients of government checks Obama spoke of Republican voters?
The thrust of the establishment class is for both sides to compromise. This was evident in the letters from the Business Roundtable and Chamber of Commerce:
Now is the time for our political leaders to put aside partisan differences and act in the nation's best interests. We believe that our nation's economic future is reliant upon their actions and urge them to reach an agreement. It is time to pull together rather than pull apart.
Do you honestly believe that if Obama can get Republicans to concede on a few tax increases, and House Democrats still won't budge on SS and Medicare cuts, that Nancy Pelosi won't be portrayed as a spoiler by the White House and the establishment press?
This is a shrewd gambit alright. And it's pointed directly at the Democratic wing of the Democratic party.