Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/30-7/2, 7/5, Pennsylvania voters, 4/7-10 in parens):
Barack Obama (D): 44 (42)
Mitt Romney (R): 44 (43)
Barack Obama (D): 53 (50)
Sarah Palin (R): 39 (39)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 50 (45)
Rick Santorum (R): 40 (43)
Barack Obama (D): 50
Michele Bachmann (R): 43
Barack Obama (D): 49
Herman Cain (R): 37
Barack Obama (D): 47
Tim Pawlenty (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Mitt Romney continues to do well in Pennsylvania against Barack Obama, though interestingly, the president's margin widened against Palin and Santorum despite otherwise lousy numbers for the POTUS. Here's my question, though: Can Obama lose Pennsylvania but still win states which were closer in 2008? (That's another way of asking, can he lose PA and still win?) Tom makes the following observation:
Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico, all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted Democratic.
Tom thinks that "Hillary Democrats" are causing problems for the president, and while I think the evidence he cites is a little thin (74% approval among Dems, 70% among white Dems), I could still believe it. (As a completely irrelevant aside, I'm still amazed that Hillary Clinton, of all people, somehow turned into a touchstone for conservative, white, working class/blue collar Democrats.) But whether you buy this theory or not, if you think the presidency is winnable for Obama even without PA, you've still gotta ask yourself the mah nishtanah: "Why is this state different from all other states?" (Or at least, the ones listed above.)
