Jobs - The winning republican message of 2012

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Thursday August 04, 2011 · 6:29 AM PDT

2011/08/04 · 06:29

Unemployment is higher today than when President Obama won the election in 2008, than when President Obama took office in 2009 or the stimulus package was passed later that year. Yes the velocity of rising unemployment has been blunted, but saying conditions are getting worse at a slower rate is not a winning message as was learned in 2010.

The republican message will be simple, the SOS - the same old shit; cut taxes, cut regulation, cut spending and the "confidence faery" at the bottom of every republican's garden will wave her wand and create jobs. The stimulus will be blamed. While Newt Gingrich is an idiot the message below will be used by all republicans.

Only Krguman's name may not be mentioned.

Obama's own words will be used against him as this Romney ad takes advantage of.

One can easily predict that over the next year unless there is massive government spending unemployment will continue to rise. The only issue is how rapid will the rise be. The economies of European nations continue to weaken.

The problem with the world economy is simple - the world depends on sales to the USA to create prosperity for them. Other countries by keeping labor prices cheap and by keeping their currencies weak against the dollar they keep exporting products. The exception is Europe, but Europe is facing problems of its own. Large Banks in Europe Struggle With Weak Bonds, particularly in Italy and Spain. So do not look for demand to come from Europe.

As for stimulating the economy by dropping interest rates, well yes I would borrow with negative interest rates, but that just is not going to happen. So do not expect lots of jobs by November 2012. Expect the entire jobs situation to be worse and the cycle to repeat.

As poor as the republican message is, the message will resonate. Hell republican may even adopt the slogan change you can believe in or adopt Sarah Palin's question

"How's that hopey changey thing working out for ya?"

What can be done? Sadly little. President Obama is unlikely to ask for spending to create demand and the House is even less likely to approve spending to create demand. Since Obama has endorsed spending cuts the republican message will be simple, more deeper spending cuts are needed earlier; cut more and more regulations; and big cuts in taxes are needed. The unemployment problem is due to Obama not accepting this reality.

Sadly many will believe this mantra of idiocy. But the argument of smaller cuts in spending and smaller cuts in taxes is made by Obama will be a failing argument for two reasons. First, will be the republican argument that the stimulus failed and second will be the argument that if small cuts are good, then larger cuts are better.

Can Obama be dragged to reality? The answer here is no. Demonstrations are not going to work. Are people really going to show up for a "jobs walk" when they are standing in line for food? No way. Is anyone willing to run against Obama in a primary? As Harold Meyerson wrote in Why Obama won’t face a primary challenge there are two reasons. Fear that a primary would prevent a democrat from being elected president and that President Obama in African American.

So where does that leave us? There will be a bad choice, President Obama, and a catastrophic choice, a republican, for president. Even worse is the democratic message will be doomed to failure. This scares the shit out of me.

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