There is but one burning question as we peruse today's data: is this Gingrich surge a legitimate phenomenon that can propel him to the nomination, or is this the high water mark for Newtie, an ephemeral bounce that will fade before Florida actually heads to the polls in eight days?
At this point, I'd declare these two alternatives to be equally possible.
The Case for Legitimate Newt-Mentum: There are two reasons to suspect that this is the beginning, rather than the high-water mark, for a Gingrich surge. For one thing, Rick Santorum is sliding back into irrelevance, and rather quickly. As I've said for weeks and weeks, the one path to denying Mitt Romney the nomination would be a consolidation of the anti-Mitt vote in one place. That looks like it might actually be happening. If it does, and the "Mitt ceiling" in the high 20s/low 30s is a legitimate phenomenon, Gingrich can win a lot of contests.
The second reason is that if the Newt surge has taught us one thing, it is that Mitt Romney looks like he has one hell of a glass jaw. He is purely awful at playing defense. When no one was even trying to lay a glove on him, Romney looked great: calm and in control. The last week, however, has been a very, very different story.
The Case for A Fleeting Newt Bounce: There are also two reasons to suspect this is a passing fad. One, and I admit this is a somewhat lame reason, is because they have all been passing fads thus far. It is hard to buy the notion that this time, it's for real. Maybe it is, but we have been teased before. Lots of times.
The second reason is rooted in a bit more evidence. Given his fundraising "prowess" thus far, to say nothing of his campaign organization, it is hard to envision Gingrich cobbling together the kind of a national campaign which he will likely need to win the nomination. It is one thing to hold your own when it is one contest per week (and, thus far, one contest in relatively small environs). Can he handle Super Tuesday? I'm still skeptical.
The race, however, is most clearly on. I, for one, would be absolutely shocked if today isn't the last day (for a while, at least) that Mitt Romney leads the national Gallup tracking polls. Newt has the momentum. What remains to be seen, however, is if he can continue to translate that into actual votes.
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