Today's data is like some odd play off of that old elementary school stand-by: "Opposite Day".
Used to seeing data showing Barack Obama with a modest lead over Mitt Romney? There are only two presidential polls out today, and both of them give Romney a slight edge.
Used to seeing longtime veteran GOP Sen. Dick Lugar struggling, but at least leading, his tea-infused challenger Richard Mourdock? A new poll out today has Lugar down five.
Worried after last week's PPP polls showed that the legislative recall elections in Wisconsin might face an uphill battle? A new set of polls out today put the Democrats in the lead in one race, and within striking range of two more.
Welcome to pollster Opposite Day! Here's the data:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-45)
NATIONAL (YouGov/The Economist): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-02 (Lake Research for Solomon): Jared Huffman (D) 18, Norman Solomon (D) 10, Susan Adams (D) 8, Stacey Lawson (D) 5 (++)
IN-SEN—R (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Richard Mourdock 44, Sen. Dick Lugar 39
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 39
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Anne Kuster (D) 40, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 39
NC-GOV—D (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Walter Dalton 32, Bob Etheridge 27, Bill Faison 4 (++)
WI-SD-21 (Myers Research for the DLCC): John Lehman (D) 51, Sen. Van Wangaard (R) 47
WI-SD-23 (Myers Research for the DLCC): Sen. Terry Moulton (R) 49, Kristin Dexter (D) 47
WI-SD-29 (Myers Research for the DLCC): Jerry Petrowski (R) 51, Donna Seidel (D) 45
(++)—Other candidates in the race were tested, but polled at or under 3 percent.
A few thoughts, as always, after the jump.
- For the first time in a long time, it was not only a quiet day on the presidential one, but a fruitful one for Mitt Romney. But that comes with a monster caveat: check out the survey construction of that YouGov/Economist poll. That is a survey that has typically shown Barack Obama staked to a lead. Suddenly, this week, he is down one. But that might be attributable, in large part, to survey design. Check out one of the many questions that preceded the horse-race question:
Do you think the Obama administration has had more scandals, fewer scandals, or about the same amount of scandals as previous presidential administrations?
It then proceeds to bring up some Obama "scandals", and then asks the following question, in regards to the GSA investigation:
How much do you think excessive government spending on things like conferences and meetings contributes to our national debt?
Holy bias of the sample, Batman! It actually gets worse, as it then follows up with questions about the Secret Service scandal. The inherent evil there is that after asking about whether there have been Obama scandals, they ask about Secret Service, and it is one Hell of a stretch to lay that at Obama's doorstep. After all that, maybe it is a bad sign for Romney that asking about the horse-race after all that only yielded a one-point lead for him!
- For the intellectual exercise, the polling memo from Myers Research, working on behalf of the DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee—essentially the DSCC/DCCC for state legislative campaigns) is worth a read. They were clearly mindful of the far less optimistic numbers released last week by us here at Daily Kos (we had PPP poll those races on our behalf). The polling memo essentially becomes a data-based attempt at counterpoint.
- It has always felt someone appropriate to offer a bit of a caveat on any polling from the University of New Hampshire. Their numbers in the past have been more than a bit unpredictable and bouncy. But if they are on point here, New Hampshire could get very interesting come November. They presently have both Republican incumbents, who just earned their seats in the 2010 landslide, going down to defeat. One cautionary detail: I would have bet all the world, based on 2010 performance and natural terrain, that Anne Kuster (NH-02) would be doing a bit better comparatively than Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01). Remember, Kuster came within an eyelash of winning in 2010, while Shea-Porter lost her bid for a third term in the House by a wide margin to Frank Guinta. Maybe Guinta has shit the bed a little bit more in the House than we realized. Either way, pretty optimistic news for the Democrats in the Granite State.
