While more attention will undoubtedly get paid to the presidential numbers today (including nearly a half-dozen new state polls that broke over the weekend), there are two sets of numbers downballot that ought to command quite a bit of attention, both with real implications for the battle for the balance of power in the United States Senate.
If it is true that Claire McCaskill has dug herself out of a hole in Missouri, and it is true that little-known state legislator Deb Fischer is about to teabag her way to the GOP Senate nomination in Nebraska, those would potentially be two additional blows for the GOP in their quest for a Senate majority. And, as anyone who reads this Wrap and the other offerings at Daily Kos Elections already knows, the GOP has taken plenty of blows on that front in the past few weeks.
First, the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney d. Obama (46-43)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)
GEORGIA (Landmark/Rosetta Stone): Romney d. Obama (51-40)
MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group): Obama d. Romney (45-40)
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (52-38)
NEW YORK (Siena): Obama d. Romney (57-37)
AR-04--D (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Q. Byrum Hurst 23, Gene Jeffress 22, D.C. Morrison 11
AR-04--R (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Tom Cotton 51, Beth Anne Rankin 33, John Cowart 6
IN-SEN (Global Strategy Group for Donnelly): Joe Donnelly (D) 40, Richard Mourdock (R) 40
MO-SEN (Mellman Group for Majority PAC): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 44, Todd Akin (R) 39; McCaskill 46, John Brunner (R) 38; McCaskill 45, Sarah Steelman (R) 36
NE-SEN--R (We Ask America): Deb Fischer 39, Jon Bruning 34, Don Stenberg 18, Sharyn Elander 4, Pat Flynn 3, Spencer Zimmerman 2
NY-SEN (Siena): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 59, Bob Turner (R) 25; Gillibrand 60, Wendy Long (R) 26; Gillibrand 60, George Maragos (R) 25
NY-SEN--R (Siena): Bob Turner 15, Wendy Long 12, George Maragos 6
WI-GOV (We Ask America): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Tom Barrett (D) 43
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
5:08 PM PT: The Polling Wrap was updated shortly after it published to Daily Kos Elections to reflect the new CBS national poll. Please note that this is a "panel-back" poll. Simply put, this is a re-interview of folks who were already surveyed in April by CBS. It also has one hugely curious underlying stat: a one-point gender gap. According to this sample, women favor Romney, albeit by just two points. That should invite, one would think, some pretty hefty skepticism.
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