Gallup: Obama Approval at 51%, Rasmussen IS the Outlier. Let's See the Media Report It.

Ian Reifowitz

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday June 24, 2012 · 10:21 AM PDT

2012/06/24 · 10:21

Gallup is now showing Barack Obama with an approval rating of 51% (disapproval at 45%).

On the other hand, Rasmussen shows Obama at 44% approve, 54% disapprove.

The question is: which is the outlier? When comparing them both to other recent polls, the answer is clear.

Rasmussen is the outlier. As I said above, Rasmussen shows an Approval Rating for Obama of -10.

The other six most recent polls, from most recent to oldest (going back to one done June 3-5), show Obama at: +6 (Gallup), +9, +1, +2, -3, and +4

Rasmussen is thus seven points away from the next closest poll. The average of those other six polls shows Obama at +3.167, so Rasmussen is 13 points away from the average.

How about the horse race: Obama v. Romney?

Rasmussen has Romney up by 5.

How about the others (from most recent to oldest): Obama ahead by: 1 (Gallup), 13, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, and the oldest one shows a tie.

So, Rasmussen is six points away from the next closest poll out of eight others (going back to one done June 3-5). The average of those eight non-Rasmussen polls shows Obama with a lead of 3.38, thus Rasmussen is 8.38 points away from the average of eight other polls.

I'm not a numbers guru, and I'd love to hear Nate Silver or DailyKos's own election experts weigh in here. I'd also like to see this trend over time. Here's the thing: to my untrained eye, this is a pretty serious deviation from the norm for Rasmussen. Pretty serious.

There were plenty of articles saying that the Bloomberg poll from last week, the one that showed Obama with a thirteen point lead, was an outlier.

OK. Fine. Now let's see some articles about how Rasmussen's recent polling makes it an outlier. The numbers I've given above make the case. Get on it media!

10:48 AM PT: Nate Silver found that in the 2010 midterms, Rasmussen was "biased and inaccurate." Silver found that Rasmussen "badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates."

This content was created by a Daily Kos Community member.

Make YOUR voice heard!

Gallup: Obama Approval at 51%, Rasmussen IS the Outlier. Let's See the Media Report It.

Comments are closed on this story.