More bad news
The poll, commissioned by the Center for American Progress Action Fund and America’s Voice, illustrates an increase in support for President Obama, and comes after a month of outreach to Latino voters, starting with the June 15 Dream announcement, appearances by the President and Vice President at NALEO and NCLR conferences, and comments opposing Arizona’s SB1070 immigration law.
Obama is winning 13 percent of Latino Republicans
, while losing just two percent of Latino Democrats. Latino independents are opting for Obama at a 60-25 clip. In the battleground states, it's even slightly better for Obama: 71-21.
There's a reason this matters, and it comes down to this:
This chart assumes the same rate of Latino turnout in 2012 as in 2008. The first column is the percentage of the state that is Latino, and the second is the percentage of the electorate that was Latino. As you can say, my community has had serious turnout problems. But even with their crappy turnout, if they end up opting for Obama 80-20 (which is very much possible at current trends), the damage it does to Romney's chances is obvious.
Expect these numbers to continue moving in Obama's direction as 1) he hits Latino media more aggressively, and 2) immigration ends up a topic in the debates. Given that the only response from Romney is "my son speaks Spanish!", he has zero room to grow.