A few notes on the poll before we begin. The poll was released yesterday, and conducted for Secure America Now, a neo-conservative SuperPAC. The results were obtained on September 11-12, 2012. 600 likely voters (LV) were polled in both Ohio and Florida, and the MOE is +/- 4.0%.
The link to the poll is here (PDF):
http://www.secureamericanow.org/...
Now some of the more egregious questions in the poll. The second question states:
President Barack Obama is committed to a policy of outreach to the Muslim world. Knowing this, do you think this policy has increased or decreased the security of the United States?
The wording in this poll implies that a "policy of outreach" towards individuals or groups that might not be friendly to us is dangerous, or misguided. However, it is very important to recognize that diplomacy isn't just useful when talking to friends and allies. I believe the pollsters introduced this question to indoctrinate their respondents to their view.
The fourth question in the poll is very telling. It states:
“President Obama has underestimated the economic and security threat posed by China to America.”
Caddell and company are using the word "underestimated" to drive their point home. A more neutral wording of the poll would read something like this:
Do you believe President Obama's policies in regards to economic and security issues with China are effective, or do you believe they are ineffective?
Note that the pollsters did not give the alternative choice in his wording, and the skewed responses in each sample are directly a result of this intentionally worded question. In Florida, 65% agree, while in Ohio, 60% agree that Obama is underestimating economic and security matters with China. A more balanced wording of the question would yield different results.
On to Question 6, which is relatively wordy. It states:
Which statement better describes President Obama’s foreign policy?
President Obama has done a good job eliminating Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists including the killing of Osama Bin Laden and ending American involvement in Iraq.
OR
President Obama relies far too much on appeasing multinational coalitions, such as the United Nations and others, rather than asserting the United States’ strategic interests first and foremost on international issues. He’s not stopped Iran’s nuclear
weapons development, allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to takeover Egypt and in Libya his advisors claimed the U.S. was leading from behind.
This question is a total low blow. It basically asserts that the President's successful order to kill Osama bin Laden is meaningless, while asserting that he appeases the United Nations. Within the question, there is a flat-out assertion from the pollster that Obama does not care about Iran's ability to acquire or develop a nuclear weapon, and that he prefers the Muslim Brotherhood in power over Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Qaddafi. I'm flat out amazed that 40% of the respondents in Florida and an almost even number of respondents in Ohio cut through the entire question to state that Obama was doing a good job! (40% in FL, 45% in OH).
First of all, this question should be split up into two questions to acquire an effective response. The first question should read:
Do you believe that President Obama's foreign policy stances regarding terrorism are effective, or do you believe they are ineffective?
The second question should read:
Do you believe President Obama's response to the crisis in Libya and Egypt was effective, or do you believe it was ineffective?
I can even write a third and fourth question out of this:
Do you believe President Obama's policies regarding the Arab Spring are effective, or are they ineffective?
Do you believe the Obama administration's policies opposing Iran's nuclear program are effective, or are they ineffective?
Question 9:
Do you believe President Obama’s policy of talking to the Iranians ended up giving them more time to develop nuclear
weapons?
Instead of "talking to the Iranians", which sounds weak, the properly worded question would include diplomacy and UN sanctions.
At the risk of making this diary too long, I'll let the readers peruse the rest of the questions to form their own opinions. At last, the bottom line results, after a long litany of neo-conservative tripe:
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44%
Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 44%
Obama still has a 3 pt lead in Ohio after all that bombardment (from the mind of a respondent). In Florida, the Party ID/voter behavior was 36D, 39R, and 24I, which is a remarkable R+3. Normally Party ID is D+2 to D+4 in the Sunshine State. Party ID in Ohio was a more reasonable 41D, 37R, 15I (D+4).
Demographic Crosstabs for FL: 74% white, 12% Hispanic, 11% Black (Hispanics were underpolled).
Demographic Crosstabs for OH: 84.5% White, 10.3% Black, 2.5% Hispanic (more reasonable for that state).
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