
Sure, sure, the Republican Party may have gone a long way toward picking their presidential nominee this week (especially since the Gingrich-Santorum kerfluffle looks to continue onward to the South unabated). But true election junkies might have been more consumed by the sudden exodus (in five days!) of three different Republican incumbents in California, where it also appears to be a near-certainty that they will be joined by a fourth Republican veteran congressman in short order.
This week saw some battles joined in competitive House and Senate primaries (including a late shocker in a high-profile Senate race), while a netroots favorite saw a potentially contentious primary disappear.
All this (and quite a bit more) in the "something to distract you from Brady versus Tebow" version of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: The traditional "first two" battles in the race to the White House are now in the rear view, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney going back-to-back, albeit in less than spectacular fashion. I'd compare it to a scenario where the Alabama Crimson Tide wins its first two games in the college football season, but both were over Division I-AA opposition (or FCS, in the new lingo), and both were only by a touchdown or two.
Polling suggests that, nationally, Romney's lead is starting to approach criminal mass—he is over 30 percent consistently for the first time in the election cycle. What's more, the field now lacks an unambiguous anti-Romney. As a result, the field shapes up like this: Romney in the low-to-mid 30s, Ron Paul in his rather intractable position in the teens (there is not much difference between his floor and his ceiling), and Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum within a few points of one another, but now well behind Romney.
The wild card in all of this, of course, is South Carolina. If the state can yield an upset for Newt Gingrich, a scenario that polling suggests is eminently possible, that could turn the national polls on their heads yet again. Of course, complicating matters is the fact that those who don't necessarily want Mitt Romney to be their nominee still cannot get off the dime and coalesce behind a single anti-Mitt. Just today, as polls showed that Gingrich has a semi-legit shot at stealing South Carolina and changing the game on the Republican side, a group of social cons led by Tony Perkins announced that they were backing ... Rick Santorum.
So it goes, which is why one still has to strongly consider Mitt Romney to be the betting favorite on the GOP side.
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney 19, Gingrich 15, Santorum 14, Paul 10, Perry 6, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Romney 34, Gingrich 18, Paul 15, Santorum 15, Perry 9, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Santorum 14, Gingrich 13, Paul 13, Perry 5, Huntsman 3
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Santorum 16, Paul 12, Perry 6, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Romney 30, Gingrich 20, Paul 16, Santorum 13, Perry 7, Huntsman 3
NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Romney 26, Santorum 19, Gingrich 15, Paul 15, Huntsman 6, Perry 6
ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center): Romney 41, Santorum 14, Gingrich 9, Perry 5, Paul 4, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (FL Chamber of Commerce): Romney 34, Gingrich 19, Santorum 14, Paul 7, Cain (?!) 5, Bachmann (?!) 4, Perry 4, Huntsman 1
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney 36, Gingrich 24, Santorum 16, Paul 10, Perry 5, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15, Paul 9, Huntsman 5, Perry 2
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Romney 36, Gingrich 25, Santorum 17, Paul 7, "Other" 5
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 25, Santorum 24, Romney 22, Paul 9, Huntsman 4, Perry 4, Roemer 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 29, Gingrich 25, Paul 20, Perry 9, Santorum 7, Huntsman 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): Romney 23, Gingrich 21, Santorum 14, Paul 13, Huntsman 7, Perry 5
SOUTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14, Perry 6, Huntsman 5, Roemer 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 28, Gingrich 21, Paul 16, Santorum 16, Perry 6, Huntsman 5
SOUTH CAROLINA (We Ask America): Romney 26, Gingrich 21, Santorum 13, Paul 8, Perry 5, Huntsman 4
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: After a sparse amount of general election polling in advance of Iowa and New Hampshire, several pollsters cranked back up the general election polling this week, with varying results. The consistent theme, as it has been throughout the cycle, has been that Mitt Romney markedly outperforms his fellow Republicans when paired against Barack Obama. But, as I explored on Tuesday, those numbers could be deceptive.
The bad news, for those looking for tea leaves 10 months out from Election Day, is that the polling could deceive us in either direction. Put another way, there are several good arguments to be made that Barack Obama's numbers are being underestimated by current polling. But there are also several good arguments that Mitt Romney's current poll performance fails to give us the full measure of his potential performance.
We do get our first taste of state general election polling this week, but all it tells us is that a trio of potentially competitive 2012 states (Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina) are just that ... potentially competitive.
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Paul (46-45); Obama d. Santorum (47-43); Obama d. Huntsman (48-41); Obama d. Perry (49-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-41)
NATIONAL (Democracy Corps): Obama d. Romney (47-46); Obama d. Romney and Ron Paul (I) (43-34-18); And ... in a special 5-way tabulation: Obama 42, Romney 30, Paul 14, Trump 7, Bloomberg 4
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Obama d. Romney (48-43); Obama d. Paul (48-41); Obama d. Santorum (51-40); Obama d. Gingrich (53-38)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama tied with generic Republican (41-41)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (44-41); Obama d. Paul (43-37); Obama d. Santorum (46-39); Obama d. Gingrich (46-38)
NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Obama d. Romney (45-43); Obama d. Paul (44-41); Obama d. Santorum (48-41)
ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center): Romney d. Obama (43-37); Obama d. Paul (44-36); Obama d. Santorum (43-34); Obama d. Gingrich (45-35)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (45-43)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama tied with Santorum (46-46); Obama d. Romney (46-45); Obama d. Gingrich (49-43); Obama d. Paul (47-41); Obama d. Perry (49-41)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Once again, Quinnipiac ventures down to the Sunshine State of Florida. Though their primary interest, no doubt, was the GOP presidential primary at the end of the month, they also polled the U.S. Senate battle. In the Republican primary, they found Rep. Connie Mack consolidating support among state GOPers. He is now up to 39 percent support in a prospective Republican primary, with no other contender topping 6 percent. In the general election, the Q poll sees an absolute coin flip, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson up by a single point (41-40) over Mack.
Another Democratic incumbent was the subject of a poll this week, with markedly different results. Not that Robert Menendez is totally safe in New Jersey: in fact, I'd put him right on the edge of the "danger zone" for Senate incumbents. When paired either with tea party fave Anna Little or state legislator Joe Kyrillos, Menendez holds a twelve point advantage (43-31).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The most firmly set Senate showdown of the cycle, with the players in place for close to a year, got a tiny bit of a shakeup this week. In Virginia, uber-conservative state legislator "Sideshow" Bob Marshall has apparently decided to challenge George Allen for the Republican nomination. Marshall was a legitimate contender for the nomination in 2008, when the nomination still managed to fall into the hands of former Governor Jim Gilmore (who proceeded to get smooshed by Democrat Mark Warner). Marshall's chances in this go-round are much thinner, given Allen's head start.
- Speaking of primary challengers, prominent Congressional veteran Kevin McCarthy is talking about a pretty legitimate new contender for the Republican nod in California, although the actual desire of that individual to get into the race is very much in doubt. McCarthy is hyping a Senate bid for veteran Republican Rep. David Dreier, whose district was shot out from under him in redistricting. McCarthy is probably recognizing the obvious--that Republicans have a field of never-will-bes for the Senate (when Orly Taitz is your presumptive frontrunner ...), and Dreier has no place to run in the House. Dreier would start with a war chest in the high six figures, but has expressed no real desire to become a senator after three decades in the House.
- This guy was on the bubble for the air ball award, but what a great story: in West Virginia, 2010 GOP nominee John Raese decided to make yet another Senate bid this week. For those who don't remember, Raese was the Republican Senate hopeful who lost by double digits in a red state in the best environment for his party in six decades (losing to Democrat Joe Manchin by 11 percent). In part, Raese lost because his Democratic opponents painted him as an out-of-state millionaire. So, given that fact ... hmm ... maybe, just maybe you don't fly in on your company's private plane from Florida to file for the election! Alas, that is exactly what Mr. Raese did this week, kiting in from south Florida to file his papers. PPP had him losing to Sen. Joe Manchin by roughly 30 points earlier in the year. Starting his campaign on this note will probably not help close that gap.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Illinois (with its primaries in mid-March) is one of the earliest primary states on the calendar. Thus, it probably stands to reason that the only data point this week comes from the land of Lincoln. In the fight in IL-10 to challenge freshman Rep. Bob Dold (!), a new poll conducted for the PCCC by PPP shows a tight race at the top, and a lot of room for persuasion. The poll showed Ilya Sheyman (full disclosure: he is the endorsed candidate of the PCCC) leading with 23 percent, followed closely by Brad Schneider at 21 percent. Late entry John Tree was at 5 percent, and attorney Vivek Bavda was at 2 percent. Those who can do the math will note, of course, that this means that about half of the electorate in the suburban Chicago district is still undecided.
Meanwhile, on the generic ballot front, we got a couple of nice data points this week that hint at a possible Democratic comeback in the 2012 election cycle. Democracy Corps staked the Democrats with a 47-44 lead. Why that lead is noteworthy, however, is that Democracy Corp uses a "named ballot", where the incumbent is identified by name in the district in question, while the challenger remains generic. In a more generic tabulation of the state of the House, Reuters/Ipsos found the Democrats up four percent on the GOP in their polling (48-44). Meanwhile, predictably, one of these ones is not like the others, and it (of course) is Rasmussen, who says it is the GOP out in front, and not by an insignificant margin (44-38).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- In the House this week, all eyes were on the Golden State, where a trio of California Republicans called it quits. The first retirement in the bunch (Ventura County veteran Elton Gallegly in the newly-created CA-26) decided to bolt after the state's independent redistricting commission altered his district to make it much more of a swing district. Then Wally Herger, who was set to represent the mostly rural northern reaches of the state in the newly-rechristened CA-01, decided to call it quits. This seemed to be less about the remap, as the district went solidly for John McCain in 2008. The next shoe dropped on Thursday, with the news that longtime I.E. (Inland Empire, for the non-Californians) Republican Jerry Lewis was electing to retire rather than pick a district in which to fight onward. Lewis' redistricting dilemma was that while much of the territory he had represented was in the newly-drawn CA-08, his home was drawn into the Democratic-leaning CA-31. This prompted a flurry of activity, the main component of which was the decision of ten-term Republican Gary Miller to avoid an incumbent vs. incumbent primary in Orange County by running instead in the 31st, a sliver of which he represented during the 1990s. Interestingly, that decision may have sealed the fate of a fourth Republican: David Dreier. With most of Dreier's district (and his home) drawn into the uber-Democratic 32nd district, the neighboring 31st district was one of the few districts Dreier could have reasonably tried to land. At this stage, I'd be shocked if he didn't join his colleagues in retirement, though (as mentioned earlier) some Republicans are trying to goad him into a longshot Senate bid.
- While the political world was spinning off its axis a bit in the Golden State, three states firmed up their November plans with the passing of their filing deadlines for the 2012 electoral cycle. Wednesday saw the passing of the filing deadline in Maryland. The high-profile battle in MD is in the newly competitive MD-06, where veteran Republican Roscoe Bartlett (who will be 86 years young this year) is being challenged not only by a host of legitimate Democrats (state Sen. Rob Garagiola is the presumptive frontrunner) but also a couple of potentially problematic Republicans. If Bartlett has a potential saving grace here, it is that a number (8!) of Republicans filed for the seat, allowing him the prospect of a win with far less than 50 percent. The other big news in Maryland came out of MD-04, where Democrat and Netroots fave Donna Edwards avoided a seriously contested primary when former state's attorney Glenn Ivey decided to drop his bid for Congress. Maryland's primaries will be held on April 3. On Friday, Maryland was joined by both Alabama and Mississippi, where primaries will be held on March 13. On the surface, it looks like neither state will yield a competitive contest, though Democrats could, in theory, try to contest MS-01 or MS-04.
- Meanwhile, the redistricting train is still very much on the tracks. Two states edged very close to finalizing their plans this week. In Tennessee, the all-GOP process yielded a map designed to cement the 7-2 GOP delegation created by the 2010 elections. As our own Jeffmd pointed out this week, however, there could be grounds for some legal challenges to the map. Meanwhile, the special master in charge of drawing the map in Connecticut released his report on Friday. It looks like the special master, Nathan Persily, opted for a "least change" proposal, which has to be seen as a defeat for Republicans, who were hoping for alterations that would create a much more winnable 5th district. For those wanting to stay up to date on all things redistricting, we here at Daily Kos Elections cordially invite you to check out our Redistricting Tracker, which will be continually updated.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Well, we were supposed to get new gubernatorial data this week, courtesy of the monthly look at the race in North Carolina from our polling pals at PPP. Alas, the prospect of polling Steven Colbert in South Carolina led to a media crush that delayed the release until next week. For those waiting, paralyzed by anticipation, Tom Jensen did note that the results were "same old, same old". Translation: Republican challenger Pat McCrory up on Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue, and probably by somewhere between 7-12 points.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- As we have been talking since last summer, in 2012 the epicenter of non-federal electoral excitement will be the state of Wisconsin. Tuesday will mark the day when the petitions for recalls of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch, and enough state senators to flip control of the chamber will be delivered. Interestingly, after the assumption for months has been that three Republican state senators were on the recall chopping block, it looks like a fourth Republican may be subject to a recall: state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald.
- Meanwhile, in more conventional electoral news, it looks like first-term Gov. Jack Markell is getting something of a free ride in Delaware. The state GOP this week announced that they are going to promote "real people candidates" for the offices of Governor and Senator. As our own David Nir chided this week, "Guys, the correct phrase is 'Some Dudes.'" In the case of the gubernatorial race, the "some dude" is a former county GOP chairman by the name of Jeff Cragg.
- Meanwhile, in one of the reddest states in the Union, there is a whale of a RINO hunt underway. In Utah, tea party activist David Kirkham became the third major Republican to announce a primary challenge to incumbent Gov. Gary Herbert, who is viewed as something of a moderate. With Utah's atypical method of candidate selection, a clown-car field doesn't help him. Remember, a party convention picks the nominee, and if someone doesn't reach critical mass, the convention designates two candidates to run off in a statewide primary. Incumbents are less safe in this format: as former Sen. Bob Bennett, who ran third in a three-way battle for the Senate nod in 2010, and watched Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater head on to the primary (Lee won, and was elected easily in November of 2010).
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
After a couple of presidential-heavy editions of the Air Ball award, we get a nice variety in the mid-January edition of the AB. Two contenders for the White House are joined by a former Congressman who needs to learn from Phil Gramm (more on that later), and a gubernatorial contender from the heartland with a most intriguing biography.
Former Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL): About the only thing Phil Gramm ever said or did that I admired was when he conceded a losing bid for president in 1996 by making the following quip: "I always listen to the voters. Especially when they are shouting someone else's name." Consider that sage advice, Congressman. Griffith, for the uninitiated, famously abandoned the Democratic Party during his freshman term in 2009. He then was unceremoniously dumped by his new party in the Republican Primary in 2010, falling to Mo Brooks by 18 percent. Griffith, for reasons passing understanding, is back to challenge Brooks in the GOP primary this year. Anyone want to lay odds? Don't call it a comeback!
GOP presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney (R-MA): Oh, Mittens. G'ahead. Run for president with your primary rationale being that you are the business icon that embraces free markets. That'll just give the president's re-election team ample opportunities to point out how many millions of dollars in taxpayer money your businesses needed to stay afloat. To say nothing of the incredible shrinking job creator: Greg Sargent and Steve Benen both noted this week that Romney's tote board on the whole job creation thing has been getting a little light. After once boasting of creating "a hundred thousand jobs" at Bain, it dropped to "tens of thousands", and then down to "thousands." At this rate, it will be in the "tens" of jobs by next Friday.
GOP presidential also-ran Rick Santorum (R-PA): Wow. I didn't think Santorum's homophobia could get any stupider than his "gay marriage is the same thing as polygamy" rant last week in New Hampshire. Until this week when he made the case that having dad in prison was still preferable to having same-sex parents. I'll say this about Santorum: he's good for one "you gotta freaking be kidding me" comment a week, it seems.
Gubernatorial challenger Dave Spence (R-MO): In these tough economic times, a lot of candidates are talking up their bona fides on the subject of the economy. Spence, who took the baton for Missouri Republicans when Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's campaign spectacularly imploded, is no exception. On his campaign website, Spence noted that he earned "a degree in economics" from the University of Missouri. Well ... kinda. His degree was actually in HOME economics, which any young middle school or high school student could tell you is a tad different from economics, as a course of study. After being busted for this bit of curricular sleight-of-hand, Spence has since corrected his biography on his website.