I love me some PPP, they were very good in their state polls. They were also recently anointed as the gold standard when it comes to national polling. The Fordham study gave PPP the top slot not once, but twice, for coming up with the most accurate margin for the general election.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
....................................
Except, after further review, PPP does no longer occupy the two top spots in the race "Best pollster of 2012." As more and more votes are being counted Obama's winning margin has grown. As of today, the race is now at Obama 50.6%, Romney 47.9%. That means as of now Obama is ahead of Romney by 2.7%, almost 3% now. That margin is likely to grow a little more, since most of the yet-to-be-counted votes come from California, Washington and Oregon, Obama states.
Anyway, follow me after the squiggle for the new, updated list of "Most Accurate Pollster in 2012."
I took the Fordham study and reworked it with the new reality of Obama's margin in the popular vote. I also added the RAND experiment, which has a remarkably accurate result. Here is the updated list of "Most Accurate Pollster of 2012":
Current result: Obama 50.6% - Romney 47.9%
1. Angus-Reid - 3% (51% to 48%)
2. ABC/Washington Post - 3% (50% to 47%)
2. Pew Research - 3% (50% to 47%)
4. RAND - 3% (49.5% to 46.18%)
5. Hartford Courant/Uconn - 3% (48% to 45%)
6. PPP - 2% (50% to 48%)
6. Dailykos/PPP - 2% (50% to 48%)
8. YouGov - 2% (49% to 47%)
9. Ipsos/Reuters - 2% (48% to 46%)
10. Democracy Corps - 4% (49% to 45%)
11. IBD/TIPP - 1% (50% to 49%)
12. UPI/CVOTER - 1% (49% to 48%)
13. NBC/WSJ - 1% (48% to 47%)
13. YouGov/Economist - 1% (48% to 47%)
13. CBS/New York Times - 1% (48% to 47%)
16. Purple Strategies 1% (47% to 46%)
17. National Journal - 5% (50% to 45%)
18. ARG - 0% (49% to 49%)
18. Washington Times/JZ Analytics - 0% (49% to 49%)
18. CNN/ORC - 0% (49% to 49%)
21. Monmouth - 0% (48% to 48%)
21. Politico/Battleground - 0% (48% to 48%)
21. Gravis Marketing - 0% (48% to 48%)
24. Newsmax/Zogby - 0% (47% to 47%)
25. Fox - 0% (46% to 46%)
26. Gallup - -1% (48% to 49%)
26. Rasmussen - -1% (48% to 49%)
28. NPR - -1% (47% to 48%)
29. AP/GfK - -2% (45% to 47%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I don't expect this list to change much. Obama is likely to inch closer and closer to the full 3% margin from the current 2.7%. The only changes in this list would occur if Obama can go past 3% to 3.1% and beyond, as then the 4% Democracy Corps poll would jump to #5.
So, let's give it up for Angus-Reid, a little known Canadian pollster that hit the margin and also the percentages on the nose. Best pollster of 2012.
Of the major newsy polls ABC/WaPo was the best.
Pew Research was spot on once again.
PPP did excellently with both of their final polls.
Internet polls were validated, did fantastic, with Angus-Reid taking top honors, and YouGov, Reuters-Ipsos and IBD/TIPP doing remarkably well, all ranking in the Top 10. The future of polling?
AP/GfK had the worst result, but in their defense their final poll came out on Oct. 23. Who knows what the result would have been, had they repolled right before the election? The same is true for NPR, which published its last poll on Oct. 25.
Thus, the absolute worst pollsters of 2012 - as was predicted by Dailykos readers far and near, were Gallup and Rasmussen. Both published their final predictions the day before the election, and both were off by a mile.
