I took the Fordham study and reworked it with the new reality of Obama's margin in the popular vote. I also added the RAND experiment, which has a remarkably accurate result. Here is the updated list of "Most Accurate Pollster of 2012":
Current result: Obama 50.6% - Romney 47.9%
1. Angus-Reid - 3% (51% to 48%)
2. ABC/Washington Post - 3% (50% to 47%)
2. Pew Research - 3% (50% to 47%)
4. RAND - 3% (49.5% to 46.18%)
5. Hartford Courant/Uconn - 3% (48% to 45%)
6. PPP - 2% (50% to 48%)
6. Dailykos/PPP - 2% (50% to 48%)
8. YouGov - 2% (49% to 47%)
9. Ipsos/Reuters - 2% (48% to 46%)
10. Democracy Corps - 4% (49% to 45%)
11. IBD/TIPP - 1% (50% to 49%)
12. UPI/CVOTER - 1% (49% to 48%)
13. NBC/WSJ - 1% (48% to 47%)
13. YouGov/Economist - 1% (48% to 47%)
13. CBS/New York Times - 1% (48% to 47%)
16. Purple Strategies 1% (47% to 46%)
17. National Journal - 5% (50% to 45%)
18. ARG - 0% (49% to 49%)
18. Washington Times/JZ Analytics - 0% (49% to 49%)
18. CNN/ORC - 0% (49% to 49%)
21. Monmouth - 0% (48% to 48%)
21. Politico/Battleground - 0% (48% to 48%)
21. Gravis Marketing - 0% (48% to 48%)
24. Newsmax/Zogby - 0% (47% to 47%)
25. Fox - 0% (46% to 46%)
26. Gallup - -1% (48% to 49%)
26. Rasmussen - -1% (48% to 49%)
28. NPR - -1% (47% to 48%)
29. AP/GfK - -2% (45% to 47%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I don't expect this list to change much. Obama is likely to inch closer and closer to the full 3% margin from the current 2.7%. The only changes in this list would occur if Obama can go past 3% to 3.1% and beyond, as then the 4% Democracy Corps poll would jump to #5.
So, let's give it up for Angus-Reid, a little known Canadian pollster that hit the margin and also the percentages on the nose. Best pollster of 2012.
Of the major newsy polls ABC/WaPo was the best.
Pew Research was spot on once again.
PPP did excellently with both of their final polls.
Internet polls were validated, did fantastic, with Angus-Reid taking top honors, and YouGov, Reuters-Ipsos and IBD/TIPP doing remarkably well, all ranking in the Top 10. The future of polling?
AP/GfK had the worst result, but in their defense their final poll came out on Oct. 23. Who knows what the result would have been, had they repolled right before the election? The same is true for NPR, which published its last poll on Oct. 25.
Thus, the absolute worst pollsters of 2012 - as was predicted by Dailykos readers far and near, were Gallup and Rasmussen. Both published their final predictions the day before the election, and both were off by a mile.
Comments are closed on this story.