One of the reasons the chances for that are zero is that most of Obamacare funding isn't controlled on annual basis, so "defunding Obamacare" wouldn't really defund it unless additional legislation were passed repealing the tax credits that will help people maintain insurance if they can't afford it otherwise.
But even if that weren't the case, Cruz knows he doesn't have the 41 votes he needs in the Senate to filibuster legislation, and even if he did, it would only do him any good if Democrats weren't willing to go nuclear on the filibuster to prevent a government shutdown.
Given that Cruz doesn't have the votes in the Senate, the only way for his scheme to work is if virtually every House Republican signed up to support a defund Obamacare bill. That would be political suicide for Republicans, and even if a majority of the GOP conference wanted to pursue the idea, it would only take 17 defectors—about 7 percent of House Republicans—to scuttle the idea. The only remotely plausible scenario of this happening is one in which Republicans simply refuse to pass anything in the House, but even that is extremely hard to imagine.
So if Cruz was right when he said there was "zero chance" of his plan actually working, then why is he pushing it? The most obvious answer is that he thinks it will help position him for 2016, and Republicans like Marco Rubio are playing along because they don't want to be outflanked. And why are outside GOP groups like Club for Growth and Heritage Action joining Cruz? Because there's a big portion of the GOP base that has no idea how absurd the defund Obamacare scheme is—and they are ready, eager, and willing to keep on sending money to people who are willing to mislead them.
So, yes, this is sort of a civil war. But at its core, what's really going on is hilarious mix of 2016 ambition and grift. Keep the popcorn out.
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