This is some really big polling news from Quinnipiac:
With strong support from white Democratic likely primary voters and voters critical
of the so-called stop-and-frisk police tactic, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio leads the Democratic race for New York City mayor with 30 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
With four weeks to go, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has 24 percent, with 22 percent for former Comptroller William Thompson, 10 percent for former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, 6 percent for Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 7 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac University
poll finds.
Stop-and-frisk is excessive and harasses innocent people, 60 percent of likely Democratic
primary voters say, while 31 percent say it is an acceptable way to make the city safer. Among those critical of stop-and-frisk, 34 percent back de Blasio, with 24 percent for Thompson and 22 percent for Quinn.
This poll was in the field from August 7-12, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%. Quinnipiac's last
poll, in the field from July 24-28, had Quinn leading the pack with 27, DeBlasio at 21, Thompson at 20, Weiner at 16, Liu at 6, and Albanese at 2. Looking at a Quinnipiac poll done just prior to that one, Weiner was at 26, with 22 for Quinn, 20 for Thompson, and DeBlasio at 15.
The takeaway is that over three weeks DeBlasio is up 15 points (up 20 points over the Quinnipiac poll done one month ago), with Weiner down 16. Quinn remains in the mid-twenties (down a bit from the previous poll), and Thompson remains in the low twenties (down a bit from the previous poll). The undecideds have dropped to 7%. Remember, these are apples to apples comparisons because we are looking only at Quinnipiac polls. You can see all the polls at Pollster here.
DeBlasio may well be making the kind of late move not seen since Ed Koch vaulted from the back of the pack in a similarly crowded Democratic field in 1977 to finish first (six candidates all received between 10 and 20 percent of the vote). Koch then defeated Mario Cuomo by 10 points in the Democratic runoff, and by 9 in the general election (Cuomo ran on the Liberal line, and the Republican, Roy Goodman, got only about 10%).
Looking ahead to the runoff, today's poll has DeBlasio trouncing Quinn 54-38, soundly beating Thompson 50-41, and crushing Weiner 72-22.
DeBlasio is generally seen as the most progressive member of the Democratic field, certainly of the major candidates polling in double digits. Much attention has been focused on his call to establish universal preschool, funded by a tax of 0.4% on income earned above $500,000 per year.
The demise of Anthony Weiner (do I really need a link?) appeared to have solidified Quinn's position as the front-runner. Appearances can be deceiving.
I live here, and have two kids in public school here. This race is personal to me. I'm still thinking about which way to go, but I am definitely thinking hard about DeBlasio. Bill Thompson has some important support from unions, in particular the teachers' union, and that matters to me as well. I may not decide until just before the election.
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