Not yet.
Since Monday, with the assistance of numerous Kossacks, I've been assessing the probable count of a vote in Congress for or against a resolution giving the president authority to make a limited military strike on Syria. Tonight, as was the case Tuesday, I'm presenting the count that has been tallied by various websites.
I've added two more sites that are keeping track to the three I'd previously been following. Each of the websites includes details about what senators and representatives have said regarding their vote or which way they are leaning. Large numbers have yet to make up their minds or at least have not said publicly how they will vote.
Each site is using different methods of assessing what each senator's or representative's stance is and using different wording to describe that stance. This means each site has come up with different results.
But regardless of who is doing the counting, there is a big difference between now and 2002, when the Senate and House of Representatives passed the authorization to use military force against Iraq.
Back then, most of the opposition came from Democrats. For Syria, most opposition is coming from Republicans.
In 2002, in the House, the majority of Democrats—126 of them—voted against the resolution, with 82 in favor and one not voting. That compares with 215 Republicans who voted yes, and six who voted no, with two not voting. One independent voted no (Rep. Bernie Sanders of Vermont). In the Senate, 21 Democrats voted against the resolution and 29 voted for it. Among Republicans the vote was 48 for, 1 against. One independent also voted no (Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont). All told, 147 Democrats in both bodies opposed the resolution and 111 voted for it.
Below the fold, I've placed the detailed breakdowns of the Syria whip counts by political affiliation. But here is a summary tally of what the five sites say about how the total vote is likely to pan out on the resolution. Note that not all sites tallied the views of all members:
The Hill's whip count:
Senate
Favor: 23
Oppose: 12
Undecided: 17
House of Representatives
Favor: 22
Oppose: 71
Undecided: 42
CNN's Whip Count
Senate
Favor: 24
Oppose: 16
Undecided: 60
House of Representatives
Favor: 27
Oppose: 91
Undecided: 254
Unknown: 61
Washington Post Whip Count:
Senate
Favor: 22
Oppose: 21
Undecided: 57
House of Representatives (Tallying 288 of 435 members)
Favor: 17
Oppose: 169
Undecided: 102
ThinkProgress Whip Count:
House of Representatives only
Favor: 46
Oppose: 170
Undecided or Unknown: 218
FiredogLake Whip Count:
House of Representatives only (Tallying 189 of 435 members)
Favor: 54
Oppose: 135
Details and partisan breakdowns can be read below the fold.
The Hill's whip count as of late Wednesday afternoon:
Senate
• 14 Democrats are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 9 Republicans are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 2 Democrats are No or Leaning No.
• 10 Republicans are No or Leaning No.
• 7 Democrats are Undecided/Not Clear
• 9 Republicans are Undecided/Not Clear
• 1 Independent is Undecided/Not Clear
House of Representatives
• 13 Democrats Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 9 Republicans Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 15 Democrats No or Leaning No.
• 56 Republicans No or Leaning No.
CNN's whip count:
Senate
• 17 Democrats are Yes.
• 7 Republicans are Yes.
• 3 Democrats are No.
• 13 Republicans are No.
• 32 Democrats are Undecided.
• 26 Republicans are Undecided.
• 2 Independents are Undecided.
House of Representatives
• 18 Democrats say Yes.
• 9 Republicans say Yes.
• 23 Democrats say No.
• 68 Republicans say No.
• 136 Democrats are Undecided.
• 118 Republicans are Undecided.
• 23 Democrats' views are Unknown
• 38 Republicans' views are Unknown
ThinkProgress Whip Count:
House of Representatives only
• 35 Democrats will or are likely to vote Yes.
• 11 Republicans will or are likely to vote Yes.
• 45 Democrats will or are likely to vote No.
• 125 Republicans will or are likely to vote No.
• 120 Democrats are Undecided or their stance is Unknown
• 98 Republicans are Undecided or their stance is Unknown
Here's the Washington Post Whip Count:
Senate
• 14 Democrats are For military action.
• 8 Republicans are For military action.
• 4 Democrats are Against or Leaning Against military action.
•16 Republicans are Against or Leaning against military action.
• 1 independent is Leaning Against military action.
• 34 Democrats are Undecided
• 23 Republican are Undecided
House of Representatives
(The Post has included information on 288 of the 435 representatives.)
• 10 Democrats are For military action.
• 7 Republicans are For military action.
• 43 Democrats are Against or Leaning Against military action.
• 125 Republicans are Against or Leaning Against military action.
Firedoglake Whip Count:
House of Representatives only
(FDL includes 189 of 435 members.)
• 41 Democrats are Firm or Leaning Yeas.
• 13 Republicans are Firm or Leaning Yeas.
• 43 Democrats are Firm or Leaning Nays.
• 92 Republicans are Firm or Leaning Nays.
