Here's the full list of Democrats:
Dist. |
Rep. |
Margin
rating |
PVI
rating |
Total |
UT-04 |
Jim Matheson |
2 |
1 |
3 |
NC-07 |
Mike McIntyre |
1 |
3 |
4 |
AZ-02 |
Ron Barber |
4 |
7 |
11 |
FL-18 |
Patrick Murphy |
3 |
9 |
12 |
AZ-01 |
Ann Kirkpatrick |
11 |
6 |
17 |
TX-23 |
Pete Gallego |
15 |
8 |
23 |
CA-07 |
Ami Bera |
10 |
16 |
26 |
GA-12 |
John Barrow |
22 |
4 |
26 |
NH-01 |
Carol Shea-Porter |
12 |
14 |
26 |
NY-21 |
Bill Owens |
7 |
19 |
26 |
NY-01 |
Tim Bishop |
17 |
10 |
27 |
WV-03 |
Nick Rahall |
25 |
2 |
27 |
AZ-09 |
Kyrsten Sinema |
14 |
15 |
29 |
NY-18 |
Sean Maloney |
13 |
17 |
30 |
CA-36 |
Raul Ruiz |
20 |
12 |
32 |
CA-52 |
Scott Peters |
8 |
24 |
32 |
CT-05 |
Elizabeth Esty |
9 |
26 |
35 |
MA-06 |
John Tierney |
5.5 |
33 |
38.5 |
NH-02 |
Ann Kuster |
16 |
27 |
43 |
FL-26 |
Joe Garcia |
34 |
13 |
47 |
IA-01 |
Open |
0 |
49 |
49 |
IL-12 |
Bill Enyart |
29 |
21 |
50 |
MN-08 |
Rick Nolan |
28 |
22 |
50 |
CA-26 |
Julia Brownley |
18.5 |
32 |
50.5 |
MN-01 |
Tim Walz |
43 |
11 |
54 |
WA-01 |
Suzan DelBene |
23 |
31 |
54 |
OR-05 |
Kurt Schrader |
36 |
20 |
56 |
CA-03 |
John Garamendi |
27 |
30 |
57 |
FL-22 |
Lois Frankel |
30.5 |
28 |
58.5 |
NV-04 |
Steven Horsford |
25 |
34 |
59 |
NY-24 |
Dan Maffei |
18.5 |
42 |
60.5 |
NY-03 |
Steve Israel |
45.5 |
18 |
63.5 |
CA-24 |
Lois Capps |
33 |
37 |
70 |
ME-02 |
Mike Michaud |
45.5 |
25 |
70.5 |
MN-07 |
Collin Peterson |
66 |
5 |
71 |
OR-04 |
Peter DeFazio |
54 |
23 |
77 |
IA-02 |
David Loebsack |
39 |
39 |
78 |
IL-10 |
Brad Schneider |
5.5 |
76 |
81.5 |
IL-17 |
Cheri Bustos |
21 |
63 |
84 |
CO-07 |
Ed Perlmutter |
38 |
50 |
88 |
CA-09 |
Jerry McNerney |
35 |
54 |
89 |
MD-06 |
John Delaney |
57 |
35 |
92 |
PA-17 |
Bill Cartwright |
55 |
38 |
93 |
CT-04 |
Jim Himes |
53 |
43 |
96 |
WA-10 |
Denny Heck |
48.5 |
48 |
96.5 |
WA-06 |
Derek Kilmer |
50.5 |
47 |
97.5 |
IL-08 |
Tammy Duckworth |
32 |
67 |
99 |
CA-16 |
Jim Costa |
41.5 |
60 |
101.5 |
NY-25 |
Louise Slaughter |
41.5 |
62 |
103.5 |
TX-15 |
Ruben Hinojosa |
62 |
44 |
106 |
One quirk that you might be noticing is that the lone open seat on the list (IA-01, which is being vacated by Bruce Braley as he runs for Senate) has a "0" for margin. That's precisely because it's an open seat, meaning that whichever Democrat runs there won't have an incumbency advantage. As much as people claim to hate incumbents, incumbents tend to have a very high survival rate; in a wave election (or even a non-wave) open seats are the most vulnerable seats, and lopping off the previous election's margin rating is the best way of adjusting for the greater risk. There are several other Dem open seats looming, but none of them are in districts that are swingy (or even light-blue) enough that they'd make the top 50 list just based on the district's PVI: The closest contenders are PA-13 (being vacated by Allyson Schwartz for a PA-Gov run) with a score of 111, and HI-01 (being vacated by Colleen Hanabusa for a HI-Sen run) with a score of 138.
So, taking a look at the Dem chart, you can see a definite symmetry between the members' margin of victory and the presidential margin of victory in most districts, consistent with the increasing nationalization of the parties' brand and the decline in ticket-splitting. There are still a few exceptions for a few entrenched Blue Dogs who run well ahead of their districts' leans where retirement would be our main worry (Nick Rahall, Collin Peterson), and also some exceptions for freshmen who ran close races in 2012 because they had to take out an incumbent, but whose district leans will offer them better protection in future years (Brad Schneider, Dan Maffei).
It's also worth considering if the model undersells the vulnerability for a few Dems. Joe Garcia in FL-26 may be the one who comes to mind first; his relative lack of vulnerability is because of his convincing victory margin over a GOP incumbent, but that's largely because he was running against a mortally wounded opponent, David Rivera, who spent his entire one term in Congress running one step ahead of the law. Despite the benefit of incumbency, Garcia might face a tougher foe against Generic Cuban-American Republican, especially when combined with the likely Dem falloff in a non-presidential year after huge Dem gains in Miami-Dade County in 2012.
Now let's turn to the Republicans:
Dist. |
Rep. |
Margin
rating |
PVI
rating |
Total |
CA-31 |
Gary Miller |
0 |
1 |
1 |
IL-13 |
Rodney Davis |
1 |
6 |
7 |
CO-06 |
Mike Coffman |
7 |
5 |
12 |
NY-19 |
Chris Gibson |
16 |
4 |
20 |
CA-10 |
Jeff Denham |
13.5 |
13 |
26.5 |
NV-03 |
Joe Heck |
21 |
8 |
29 |
IA-03 |
Tom Latham |
27 |
7 |
34 |
NJ-03 |
Jon Runyan |
28 |
9 |
37 |
NY-23 |
Tom Reed |
10 |
30 |
40 |
NY-11 |
Michael Grimm |
13.5 |
27 |
40.5 |
VA-02 |
Scott Rigell |
22 |
22 |
44 |
MN-02 |
John Kline |
25 |
23 |
48 |
NE-02 |
Lee Terry |
5.5 |
45 |
50.5 |
MI-01 |
Dan Benishek |
2 |
49 |
51 |
MI-06 |
Fred Upton |
41 |
12 |
53 |
MI-11 |
Kerry Bentivolio |
18 |
36 |
54 |
WI-08 |
Reid Ribble |
40 |
17 |
57 |
PA-08 |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
47.5 |
11 |
58.5 |
WI-07 |
Sean Duffy |
43 |
18 |
61 |
MI-07 |
Tim Walberg |
32.5 |
29 |
61.5 |
CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
31 |
32 |
63 |
CA-21 |
David Valadao |
64.5 |
2 |
66.5 |
MI-03 |
Justin Amash |
26 |
44 |
70 |
WI-01 |
Paul Ryan |
38 |
33 |
71 |
IN-02 |
Jackie Walorski |
4 |
69 |
73 |
PA-06 |
Jim Gerlach |
54 |
19 |
73 |
PA-15 |
Charlie Dent |
49.5 |
24 |
73.5 |
FL-02 |
Steve Southerland |
15 |
59 |
74 |
FL-10 |
Dan Webster |
8.5 |
66 |
74.5 |
OH-16 |
Jim Renacci |
12 |
64 |
76 |
FL-13 |
Bill Young |
62 |
15 |
77 |
IA-04 |
Steve King |
24 |
56 |
80 |
NJ-02 |
Frank LoBiondo |
78.5 |
3 |
81.5 |
NJ-05 |
Scott Garrett |
43 |
39 |
82 |
FL-16 |
Vern Buchanan |
20 |
63 |
83 |
NY-02 |
Peter King |
75.5 |
10 |
85.5 |
VA-04 |
Randy Forbes |
52.5 |
35 |
87.5 |
MN-03 |
Erik Paulsen |
68 |
20 |
88 |
CO-03 |
Scott Tipton |
43 |
52 |
95 |
NY-27 |
Chris Collins |
5.5 |
90 |
95.5 |
GA-01 |
Open |
0 |
97 |
97 |
OH-14 |
David Joyce |
63 |
37 |
100 |
VA-05 |
Robert Hurt |
45 |
55 |
100 |
KY-06 |
Andy Barr |
11 |
93 |
104 |
OH-06 |
Bill Johnson |
19 |
86 |
105 |
WA-08 |
Dave Reichert |
91 |
14 |
105 |
PA-16 |
Joe Pitts |
67 |
40 |
107 |
MN-06 |
Michele Bachmann |
3 |
105 |
108 |
NC-09 |
Robert Pittenger |
17 |
91 |
108 |
PA-07 |
Pat Meehan |
87.5 |
21 |
108.5 |
As with the Dems, there's only one open seat in the Top 50 so far, and it's not even a very promising one: the Savannah-area GA-01, being opened up by Jack Kingston for his Senate run. (It's a little early in the cycle to be talking about open seats, as nobody has flat-out retired yet; all of the open seats belong to either Senate or gubernatorial cnadidates so far. We'll revisit the Vulnerability Index early next year, after the open seat picture is clearer.) An open seat that's a bit likelier to fall, given the area's greater willingness to consider Democrats downballot, is WV-02, which Shelley Moore Capito is vacating; it misses the cut for being included in the chart, at 125 points, though (given how red that district is at the presidential level).
You'll notice that I also assigned a zero to Gary Miller in CA-31, despite that he's a veteran member. That's because his 2012 election wasn't a good test of his strength in that Dem-leaning district; because of a fluky outcome in the Top 2 primary in this district, he wound up facing off against another Republican in the general election. He wound up defeating Bob Dutton by about a 55-45 margin (with around half of the Dems in the district simply abstaining, based on the more than 50,000 undervotes in that race compared with presidential votes).
Even if you treated Dutton, who didn't explicitly try to run to Miller's left, as a Democrat and gave Miller a margin rating based on his 10.4-point victory, he'd clock in at #34, giving him a combined score of 35, which is still enough to put him at seventh place. I don't think any observer would say that Miller is about as vulnerable as Tom Latham and Jon Runyan, though; he's almost universally considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent by virtue of his D+5, Hispanic-plurality district, so I feel confident about tweaking his number.
You'll notice that, compared with the Democratic table, there aren't a lot of vulnerable freshmen near the top of the list. (With 2012 winds blowing in a fairly Dem-friendly direction, Democrats won most of the close races in swing districts). In fact, once you get outside the top 10 or so, there really isn't that much to see on the list in terms of inviting targets; you start getting into the territory of guys like Scott Rigell and John Kline, who are largely unremarkable and who just perform largely in line with their district's leans ... but who are in districts that are Republican-leaning enough to protect them, absent a wave.
As you make your way down the list, a few names do pop out as outliers, and these are races that will no doubt be competitive. That includes Dem-leaning CA-21, where David Valadao's large victory margin was aided Democrats getting saddled with a poor candidate; with a better Dem candidate, he'll face a tougher race, although in this mostly-Hispanic district, he'll also be helped by extra-large falloff in a non-presidential year. That also includes MN-06, where Michele Bachmann just gives you so much material to work with, so much so that even an R+10 district might not be enough to get her over the top.
At this point, you're probably asking, "So how many seats are the Democrats going to pick up next year?!?" Well, unfortunately, this model doesn't purport to show that; it can tell you in what order candidates will fall, but we'll need more information about how much of a wave is building, in order to determine how far up the table the waves will splash and how many people get taken down.
We won't have a sense of that until a year from now, and probably not until even closer to the 2014 election than that. For now, we're seeing House generic ballots that are narrowly favoring the Dems; bear in mind, though, that Dems need a mildly-favorable generic ballot score just to break even, given that the average district is narrowly Republican-leaning, thanks to gerrymandering and the simple fact that Democratic votes aren't effectively concentrated, being more heavily clustered in urban districts. The Democrats also need to overcome the way that gravity in midterms usually tends to work against the party occupying the White House (though, as Sean Trende points out, usually there's only one midterm blowout during an eight-year presidency). As it stands right now, it looks like a rather status quo election, and I'd be surprised to see more than five or ten seats changing hands in either direction.
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