Union protests last year in Michigan, an electoral hot spot for 2014.
In the middle of the 2012 electoral cycle, using a very sophisticated formula (actually, it was terribly simple, but still ... it
was a formula), we looked at the states that would
be the ones to watch in November of 2012.
By and large, the top-tier states were as pivotal as we thought they would be six months before the election. The top state (Florida) was the closest of them all in the presidential election. While the Senate race wound up being pretty uncompetitive (thanks, Connie Mack IV!), Florida had a bunch of House races that set an early tone that the night would be good, though not great, for the Democrats.
Now, it is way, way too darned early for super-fancy formulaic projections of Election Night 2014. But that's not going to stop us from having a little preliminary fun with the journey to the ballot box that awaits us in a mere 14 months.
So, below the fold, behold the quintet of states that we can already tell are going to be pretty damned interesting when the dust settles next fall. Some will be pretty predictable. Others? Let's just say that they will be a tad more surprising, seeing how they were on no one's radar screen last year.
State #5: Alaska
That's not snark, people. That's legit. We're looking for quality in this one, not quantity, and one could make a pretty compelling argument that Alaska has the most important race on Election Night.
Part of this, admittedly, is a function of geography. Alaska, as the westernmost state in the Union, has the latest poll closing time of all 50 states (midnight ET/9 PM PT, and because some precincts are even further to the west, results typically don't come in for an hour after that).
Which means, even if Democrats don't want to stomach the thought, control of the United States Senate may not be decided until very early in the morning on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014. In a red state, the final Senate race of the night will feature a Democratic incumbent, Mark Begich, who knocked off incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Stevens by the narrowest of margins in 2008.
This time around, he gets a respectable, if somewhat generic, GOP challenger in state Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. But, in a state where both John McCain and Mitt Romney won handily, "generic Republican" might be enough.
State #4: Pennsylvania
One of the more artistic Republican gerrymanders in the nation has robbed us of the usual 3-6 competitive House races in the Keystone State. However, that does not mean that all is well for the GOP next year in Pennsylvania.
For one thing, Pennsylvania may well be home to the least popular Republican governor in the nation. Gov. Tom Corbett, at best, is in a tossup to earn a second term as the state's governor. More likely, he is a narrow underdog, who has to hope for a complete and total circular firing squad in the Democratic primary in order to gain a damaged opponent.
For another, Pennsylvania's GOP is in control of the state legislature (hence, the butt-ugly gerrymander). But that control is tenuous, and this seems to be a real target at the downballot level.
The state isn't completely devoid of interesting U.S. House races, either. While the seat will stay blue, the Democratic primary in PA-13 (where veteran Rep. Allyson Schwartz is among a host of Democrats challenging Corbett) will be highly entertaining. And, in PA-08, Democrat and former CIA analyst Kevin Strouse is showing some early strength, though Mike Fitzpatrick fairly easily dispatched a well-financed Democrat in 2012.
State #3: Colorado
If this were the states to watch in 2013, Colorado may well be #1. Yep, even ahead of New Jersey and Virginia. Those two state Senate recall elections looming this coming week are simply huge, and could have immense ramifications for state legislatures around the nation.
More practically, however, it could have huge implications in Colorado, which is somewhat of a mirror image of Pennsylvania in one key sense. Here, it is the Democrats that control the legislature, and that control is reasonably tenuous. If the Democrats can beat back the recalls of Democrat senators Morse and Giron, they will have a little extra cushion when 2014 rolls around.
That's not all that is on deck in the Rockies. Voters could be getting a serious case of deja vu, as both 2010 GOP contenders (gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo and Senate candidate Ken Buck) are back for another round. Lest anyone take either of them lightly because of ... well ... their batshit craziness, bear two stats in mind: Tancredo has been polling even with Hickenlooper (whose approval ratings have been bruised badly this year), and Buck nearly knocked off Michael Bennet in 2010.
Democrats have a real opportunity in 2014 here, as well. Indeed, one of their biggest targets in the U.S. House is suburban Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, who has drawn one of the highest profile Democratic challengers in the country in well-respected former state legislator Andrew Romanoff, the one-time speaker of the House.
State #2: Florida
Florida is still a little bit undefined, but its status as a key 2014 battleground is pretty much beyond doubt. Start at the top: Republican Gov. Rick Scott has long been one of the less-loved incumbents in the nation. Even a generic Democrat would appear to be a real contender, and one of the newest Democrats in the state (former Gov. Charlie Crist) could turn this race into a clash of the Sunshine State titans should he elect to seek a return to elective politics.
Meanwhile, downballot, there are a lot of variables, but come next Fall there could be as many as six races worth watching in Florida. One race has already pretty well defined itself, as it is already certain that sophomore GOP Rep. Steve Southerland will have a top-flight Democrat challenging him in 2014. Democrats are very high on Leon County Schools official Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Florida pol (and institution) Bob Graham. Al Lawson, who took 47 percent off of Southerland last year, may still throw his hat in the ring for round 2. Meanwhile, Bill Young is facing a rematch in the Tampa metro area, after being held to 58 percent last year. He'll be 84 on Election Day 2014, and his retirement has only been rumored for a decade or two.
Democrats, alas, will have a couple of incumbents to defend, as well. While the challengers are still undefined, you can pretty much count on freshmen Patrick Murphy (FL-18) and Joe Garcia (FL-26) to have tight races next year.
State #1: Michigan
Things could change, of course. But right now, it is hard to conceive of another state that will draw more eyeballs on Election Night 2014 than Michigan. Two hugely critical (and high-profile) statewide races, coupled with what may well be several interesting House races, plus what promises to be a huge skirmish over control of the state legislature, highlight what ought to be a fascinating Election Night in the upper Midwest.
Start with the gubernatorial race. Put first-term GOP Gov. Rick Snyder in the same mix as the aforementioned Msrs. Scott and Corbett. Rookie Republican governor, governing like he is the governor of Wyoming, instead of a state carried twice by President Obama. He has already drawn a first-tier challenger in former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer. Polls have been a little inconsistent here, but even the best polls for Snyder spot him a very modest lead, and well under 50 percent of the vote, to boot.
Meanwhile, there is also an open seat U.S. Senate race that will command a lot of attention. This one is already somewhat defined, as well, though it is certainly off to a funky start. Democrats have coalesced around third-term Rep. Gary Peters. Republicans also got a commitment from a respectable statewide candidate in former Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land. The funky part is that the Republican party seems to be less than enthused about Land, and seem open (if not eager) to see someone else get into the race.
Downballot, a couple of House Republicans deserve some focus. In the northern tier of the state, sophomore Republican Rep. Dan Benishek has already drawn a formidable Democratic challenger in former Kalkaska County Sheriff Jerry Cannon. Benishek won in 2012 by less than one percent. Meanwhile, downstate in MI-11, two questions need to be answered between now and next November: (1) Will freshman Republican Kerry Bentivolio be the Republican nominee (he is being challenged by attorney Dave Trott)?; (2) Will the Democrats have a top-flight candidate in place on the off chance that the ... ahem ... very interesting Bentivolio survives his primary? Finally, the Democrats landed a legit opponent in MI-07 for Rep. Tim Walberg, who usually underperforms in this purply-red district. Democrat Pam Byrnes is looking for a political second act, after a six year stint in the state legislature that ran from 2004-2010.
Last, but certainly not least: Watch the state legislative battles here. Democrats halved the GOP majority in the 2012 elections, and they'll be eager to finish the job in 2014. Plus, they get their first crack at the GOP majority in the state Senate, though at a 26-12 GOP majority, a switch in that chamber would require a pretty herculean effort by the Democrats.
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There were some other states that were in the mix. One could make a decent case for Maine (who doesn't want to see GOP Gov. Paul LePage become unemployed?), or North Carolina (has the GOP lege been so extreme that they can neutralize their own gerrymander?). Others, too. If you feel strongly about a state that didn't crack the top five this time around, by all means: Make your case in the comments.