Expressed as a percentage of each group's total registered voters, African-Americans are actually outpacing whites so far this year, after a lackluster showing in 2010. Credit the Moral Mondays movement and NC NAACP's herculean GOTV effort, led by Rev. Dr. William J. Barber.
This is Part 1 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27), 2 (10/28), 3 (10/29), 4 (10/30), 5 (11/1)
North Carolina's Board of Elections provides a wealth of early-voting data in near-real time, affording a unique view into voter sentiment well in advance of election day. Those data are reproduced by many publications (for this report I have used Carolina Transparency as my raw data source), but often in a poorly rendered form that can do more to obscure than it can to provide insight.
From now through November 3rd I will be presenting daily my own re-analysis of these data, in the graph-rich format you see below. Please consider following me to make sure you receive these daily updates
Monday, 10/27: With NC's early voting period (which began on 10/23) now half-way complete, the early news is great: despite long lines at the polls, voting is heavy, and compared to the 2010 mid-term (in which Republicans stole our state), Democrats and their traditional affinity groups (minorities and women) are strongly outpacing the voting performance of Republicans and unaffiliated voters - the latter of which can often tilt Republican.
Without further commentary, here are the data (through Monday, 10/27):
Expressed as a percentage of each group's total registered voters, African-Americans are actually outpacing whites so far this year, after a lackluster showing in 2010. Credit the Moral Mondays movement and NC NAACP's herculean GOTV effort, led by Rev. Dr. William J. Barber.
Democrats (expressed as the percentage of their total registered voters who have cast early ballots so far) are outpacing Republicans in 2014 early voting, unlike their poor showing in 2010. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in NC by 2.8 million to 2.0 million.
In terms of numbers of additional ballots cast compared with 2010 (top graph), Republicans and Unaffiliated Voters are at the bottom of the pile, with Women and Democrats piling on big numbers. In terms of percentage increase in ballots cast over 2010 (bottom graph), minority (Non-White) voters are running away with the prize this year, primarily due to black voter turnout (again, credit the NC NAACP's Moral Mondays and GOTV efforts).
Like these daily updates regarding one of the most exciting and encouraging races in the country? Follow me to see 'em every day.
This is Part 1 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27), 2 (10/28), 3 (10/29), 4 (10/30), 5 (11/1)
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