Republican Lee Terry
Leading Off:
• NE-02: We've written extensively about how politicians who run ads trying to tie their opponents to heinous crimes often wind up bitten in the ass, but no one's gotten their buttocks chomped as hard as Lee Terry just did:
Convicted killer Nikko Jenkins offered his take on the race in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District at a hearing to determine his mental status Wednesday.
Jenkins, 28, shouted "Hey you guys, vote for Lee Terry! Best Republican ever!"
The NRCC, of course, aired an
infamous, Willie Horton-esque ad that accused Democrat Brad Ashford of wanting to release Jenkins from prison earlier. The ad received national criticism and Democrats demanded it be taken off the air, but both Terry and the NRCC
stood behind it. Talk about getting what you deserve. Best Republican ever!
Race Ratings: This time around we move 15 races. Four move toward the Democrats while 11 head toward the GOP. As always, you can check out all our races on the big board.
• MN-Sen (Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic): Plenty of Republicans believed that businessman Mike McFadden could give freshman Democrat Al Franken a real race, but it was not to be. Franken knew that after his extremely narrow 2008 victory he would have a target on his back, and he prepared accordingly. Franken raised plenty of money early on and has proven to be popular at home. Despite their early bluster, national Republicans never spent much to boost McFadden in this blue state. Franken has constantly held a clear lead in the polls, and it's clear that he's on track to win easily next week. Six years ago the idea that the former Saturday Night Live performer would quickly become entrenched seemed absurd, but Republicans aren't laughing at Franken anymore.
• MT-Sen: (Likely R to Safe R): After Democratic Sen. John Walsh's plagiarism scandal ended his campaign, Republican Rep. Steve Daines became the overwhelming favorite. The Democrats' replacement nominee Amanda Curtis did her best with what little time and few resources she had, but she faces very long odds against Daines in this red state in a tough year for Team Blue everywhere. Neither national party has spent any real money on the race since Walsh's implosion, with Democrats all but conceding this seat to the GOP.
• OR-Sen (Likely D to Safe D): Republican Monica Wehby needed everything to go right if she was going to best Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley in this blue state. The exact opposite has happened, and well-funded Republican groups gave up on her a long time ago in the face of terrible polling. The stalking allegations didn't help either.
• WV-Sen (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats hoped that Secretary of State Natalie Tennant could keep this seat blue, but she's faced some incredibly stiff headwinds. Obama is very unpopular in the state, and Republican Shelley Moore Capito is a tough candidate. Senate Majority PAC made a $200,000 ad buy here over the summer but they never returned, and no other major groups on either side have gotten involved since then. It's clear that both sides are treating this as an automatic Republican pickup, and it's hard to disagree with that assessment.
• PA-Gov (Likely D to Safe D): Republican Gov. Tom Corbett's brutal budget cuts and his handling of the Penn State scandal have made him horrifically unpopular in this blue state, and he hasn't been within 6 points of Democrat Tom Wolf in a single poll. Corbett at least will have the honor of being the first incumbent to ever be rated as safe to lose by SSP/DKE, a rare and not-at-all sought-after privilege.
• RI-Gov (Likely D to Lean D): Rhode Island is a solidly blue state but it hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1990, and it's looking possible the streak will continue. Democrat Gina Raimondo is still favored against Republican Allan Fung, but things are not going as smoothly as she'd like. Raimondo spent almost all of her money in the primary and the DGA has needed to jump in and help her. There hasn't been much polling here but most of it has shown a fairly small lead for Raimondo, and she can't afford to take this race for granted.
• CA-24: (Safe D to Likely D): It looked pretty unbelievable when unheralded Republican Chris Mitchum unveiled a poll giving himself a 1-point lead over Democratic Rep. Lois Capps, and it still does. Still, the DCCC recently diverted $99,000 to this seat. That's not a huge amount, but it's enough to indicate that Capps isn't quite a lock.
• IA-01 (Lean D to Tossup): Iowa is not shaping up to be a friendly state for Democrats this cycle, and Team Blue is unexpectedly on the defensive in this 56-43 Obama district. At the beginning of October Republican Ron Blum released a poll finding him leading Democrat Pat Murphy by 1-point, and a Loras College poll recently found Blum up by 2. Both parties have diverted resources to this seat in the last few weeks, which says even more than either of these polls do about the state of the race.
• IA-02 (Likely D to Lean D): Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack represents another 56-43 Obama seat and while his incumbency should carry him to victory, it's no sure thing. Loebsack faces his third match with Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks: In 2008 he easily beat her, but Miller-Meeks came within 5 points of unseating him in 2010. Both parties have converged on this district in the last week of the race, which is not a good sign for the congressman. A recent poll gave Loebsack a clear 51-38 lead but with both sides spending here late in the game it's hard to conclude that Loebsack is in a comfortable position.
• NM-02, VA-02 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats had some hope that they could put these districts into play this year. It's been a long time since either party has shown any interest in either seat though, and these look like a bridge too far in a year where Democrats are largely on the defensive in the House.
• NV-03 (Likely R to Safe R): Republican Rep. Joe Heck has looked secure against Democrat Erin Bilbray for a while, and neither party is focusing here. With early voting going horribly for Democrats, Team Blue is concentrating on saving the much more friendly 4th District, and this seat is being left by the wayside.
• NY-23 (Lean R to Likely R): Republican Rep. Tom Reed came unexpectedly close to losing in 2012, and Democrats hoped that Martha Robertson could finish the job. Reed took no chances this time, and quickly portrayed Robertson as too liberal for this light red seat. The DCCC pulled out of this district at the beginning of October and no one has taken over for them, a good sign that Robertson has been triaged.
• NY-24: (Lean D to Tossup) Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei was one of the surprise losers of 2010. This time around Maffei and his allies have taken his race much more seriously but so has the GOP. Republican John Katko has been a good fundraiser and is running on his history as a prosecutor, and he's getting plenty of air support from his party. While Obama won this seat 57-41, this part of Upstate New York is more than willing to vote for local Republicans. A recent Siena Poll found Katko up by 10 points. While that may be overly optimistic for the GOP, the small 5-point lead Maffei posted in his own survey indicates that he's in for another tough contest.
• UT-04: (Safe R to Likely R): When Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson announced his retirement last year, it looked like Republican Mia Love had earned herself a free trip to the House. However, a number of polls have found Democrat Doug Owens doing surprisingly well here, with a Thursday Dan Jones poll giving Love only a 48-43 lead (see our separate UT-04 item). Love was criticized for running a weak race against Matheson in 2012 and it's possible she's done the same thing and given Owens an opening. Owens is also the son of the late former Rep. Wayne Owens, and he may be benefiting from some residual name recognition. It's still tough to see any Democrat not named Jim Matheson winning this 67-30 Romney seat, but we can't count it out any longer.
Early voting: Below, Taniel gives us a rundown of Florida and Maine's early voting numbers.
• Florida: As the share of in-person voting rises, Democrats continue eating away at the GOP's early voting advantage. As of Thursday morning, about 2.4 million Floridians had cast their ballot and registered Republicans' had an edge of 5.9 percentage points among those voters, down from 9.8 on Friday morning and 7.6 on Monday morning.
While there are many caveats to keep in mind when comparing this year's Florida statistics to those of past cycles, this number compares favorably to 2010, when the GOP led by nearly 13 percentage points at the end of the early voting period. This is still a drop, however, from the 4 point lead Democrats enjoyed in 2012. Charlie Crist is not expected to recreate the electorate that gave Barack Obama a victory two years ago, but the more Democrats can narrow their early voting deficit over the next few days the better they'll be positioned.
• Maine: When news broke on Wednesday that independent gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler was inviting his supporters to back another candidate and that Sen. Angus King was switching his endorsement from Cutler to Democratic nominee Mike Michaud, I immediately wondered how many Maine voters had already locked in their vote before hearing of these developments and shifting their vote away from Cutler.
Here's the answer: As of Thursday morning, 84,617 Maine voters had cast their ballots, 24.4 percent of which are independent voters. That may sound like a lot, and in a close race it may well make a difference, but that number corresponds to just 14.6 percent of the total number of votes cast during the 2010 elections.
A little math: Supposing that Cutler got 15 percent of those votes, and that two-thirds of those Cutler voters would have been shifted from him to Michaud or LePage in the proportion suggested in the most recent PPP survey (55 percent Michaud and 35 percent LePage), we're talking about a potential loss of about 0.3 percent for Michaud in the final margin.
Senate:
• KS-Sen: After initially declaring that he wouldn't be endorsing anyone in the general election (and possibly even flirting with supporting independent Greg Orman) tea partier Milton Wolf is finally falling into line. On Thursday, he announced that he would be backing Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, who defeated Wolf in the August primary. Wolf used Facebook to make his statement and no, the irony is not lost on us.
• MT-Sen, GA-Sen: In an unusual display of candor, particularly right before Election Day, NRSC executive director Rob Collins openly acknowledged that his committee's opposition researchers discovered that Montana Sen. John Walsh had plagiarized his War College thesis and leaked the story to the New York Times. (The paper's subsequent front-page story quickly terminated Walsh's candidacy.)
Collins also took credit for unearthing a private strategy document that George Democrat Michelle Nunn's campaign sloppily made available on a public website, sitting on it for seven months before circulating it right after the GOP primary. That disclosure took Nunn off her game and allowed Republican nominee David Perdue to catch his breath. Of course, the NRSC didn't exactly do a bang-up job on "self oppo," given that Perdue's proud history of outsourcing American jobs only came to light late in the campaign and has given Nunn new life. The oppo giveth, and the oppo taketh away.
• Polling: I have a bad feeling about this...
• AR-Sen: Univ. of Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) 49, Mark Pryor (D-inc) 36 (Oct. 2013: 34-32 Pryor)
• AR-Sen: Rasmussen: Cotton (R) 51, Pryor (D-inc) 44 (Oct. 16: 47-44 Cotton)
• CO-Sen: PPP (D): Mark Udall (D-inc) 48, Cory Gardner (R) 48 (Oct. 21: 46-43 Gardner) (conducted for LCV)
• CO-Sen: Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) 46, Udall (D-inc) 39 (Oct. 24: 46-41 Gardner)
• CO-Sen: SurveyUSA: Gardner (R) 46, Udall (D-inc) 44 (Oct. 14: 45-43 Gardner)
• CO-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Gardner (R) 46, Udall (D-inc) 43
• KY-Sen: POS (R): Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 50, Alison Grimes (D) 43 (July: 48-43 McConnell) (conducted for Crossroads GPS)
• LA-Sen: Univ. of New Orleans: Bill Cassidy (R) 51, Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 43
• MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA: Gary Peters (D) 50, Terri Lynn Land (R) 35 (Oct. 22: 45-34 Peters)
• NC-Sen: Elon Univ.: Kay Hagan (D-inc) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41 (Sept.: 45-41 Hagan)
• NC-Sen: PPP (D) Hagan (D-inc) 47, Tillis (R) 46 (Oct. 20: 46-43 Hagan) (Conducted for LCV)
• NC-Sen: Rasmussen: Hagan (D-inc) 47, Tillis (R) 46 (Oct. 8: 48-46 Hagan)
• NC-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Tillis (R) 40, Hagan (D-inc) 35
• NH-Sen: ARG: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49, Scott Brown (R) 49 (Oct. 23: 49-48 Shaheen)
In what passes for good news these days, three of the four Colorado polls show Udall tied or only narrowly losing. The fourth is Quinnipiac, which has been bearish for Colorado Democrats all year.
Normally when one side releases a favorable internal poll, we wonder if the other team will drop a better survey. Unfortunately it looks like we won't need to wait for that in the Kentucky Senate race: When asked about Grimes' chances at a Thursday morning panel, her pollster Mark Mellman declared "We're not ahead. But we hope to be on Election Day." On Twitter Mellman claimed that the story is inaccurate, but didn't offer any more details. Not the most encouraging news ever.
Vox Populi's 5-point lead for Tillis is pretty hard to believe, especially since his own poll just showed the race tied. Still, it's not a good sign for Hagan that PPP finds her only up 1 point after giving her better leads in the past.
Gubernatorial:
• Polling: Obi-Wan never told you what happened to your pollster:
• AR-Gov: Rasmussen: Asa Hutchinson (R) 50, Mike Ross (D) 43 (Oct. 17: 49-47 Hutchinson)
• AR-Gov: Univ. of Arkansas: Hutchinson (R) 50, Ross (D) 39 (Oct. 2013: 32-30 Hutchinson)
• CO-Gov: PPP (D): John Hickenlooper (D-inc) 47, Bob Beauprez (R) 47 (Oct. 21: 45-44 Hickenlooper) (Conducted for the LCV)
• CO-Gov: SurveyUSA: Hickenlooper (D-inc) 46, Beauprez (R) 46 (Oct. 14: 45-44)
• CO-Gov: Vox Populi (R): Hickenlooper (D-inc) 49, Beauprez (R) 44
• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac: Charlie Crist (D) 43, Rick Scott (R-inc) 40, Adrian Wyllie (L) 8 (Oct. 22: 42-42 tie)
• FL-Gov: Cherry Communications (R): Scott (R-inc) 44, Crist (D) 39, Wyllie (L) 4 (Sept.: 43-39 Scott) (Conducted for the Florida Chamber of Commerce)
• IL-Gov: McKeon & Associates (R): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 45, Bruce Rauner (R) 42 (July: 40-34 Rauner) (Conducted for the Chicago Sun Times)
• MA-Gov: Emerson College Polling Society: Charlie Baker (R) 48, Martha Coakley (D) 42 (Oct. 8: 45-40 Baker)
• MA-Gov: Suffolk: Baker (R) 46, Coakley (D) 43 (Sept.: 44-43 Coakley)
• MD-Gov: WPA Research (R): Larry Hogan (R) 44, Anthony Brown (D) 39 (Oct. 22: 42-41 Brown) (Conducted for Larry Hogan)
• ME-Gov: Ipsos: Mike Michaud (D) 42, Paul LePage (R-inc) 42, Eliot Cutler (I) 13 (Oct. 14: 42-36-16 Michaud)
• MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA: Rick Snyder (R-inc) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 43 (Oct. 21: 47-39 Snyder)
• NH-Gov: ARG: Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48, Walt Havenstein (R) 46 (Oct. 23: 53-43 Hassan)
• NH-Gov: UNH: Hassan 52, Havenstein 37 (Oct. 6: 46-36 Hassan)
Hogan's new poll out of Maryland is the first one to ever show him with a lead. We'll see if Brown releases a response poll, but don't hold your breath waiting for an independent group to take a look at this
woefully underpolled race.
The bad news for Maine Democrats is that Michaud has lost the 6-point lead Ipsos recently gave him. This was one of the few polls to give him any clear lead, though his decline could just be noise rather than an actual setback. Recent polls have found this contest tied, and now Ipsos is joining the herd.
After giving Schauer his worst poll in a long time last week, EPIC-MRA turned right around and gave him one of his best. While Snyder holds a small lead, the undecideds are overwhelmingly Democratic. Most polls give Snyder a small lead, though given how notoriously unreliable Michigan's pollsters tend to be, we may not know where things really stand until Tuesday.
Speaking of notoriously unreliable pollsters, we have two in New Hampshire showing very different results. If you believe ARG, Hassan is in real danger; if you're for UNH, all is well for Team Blue. ARG has had a terrible reputation for years, and they did not distinguish themselves at all last cycle. Steve Singiser ranked them as 2012's worst firm in his in his pollster report card, explaining:
Oh, mama. Man, did the "pirate pollster" have a shitty year. Remember that this was a year in which only two presidential states were decided by less than five points. Ergo, picking "winners" in this cycle should've been a cakewalk. ARG couldn't even bat .500, for crying out loud. They missed the presidential winner in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Virginia. Add a big miss in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race (where Democrat Maggie Hassan eventually won by double digits), and you have an ugly cycle for the Pirate.
UNH is also pretty terrible, with a long history of
showing wild swings and a refusal to fix its very obvious
methodological problems. In this duel between these two lousy firms one thing is for sure:
At least one of them will look very stupid on Tuesday night.
House:
• AZ-09: There's been precious little news out of Arizona's swingy 9th District (and absolutely no polling), but there have been two developments in recent days to suggest that Democrats might be sweating freshmen Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's re-election campaign a little bit. For one, the DCCC dropped a late $211,000 ad buy attacking Republican Wendy Rogers. However, this is far less than the $1.3 million the D-Trip initially reserved all the way back in May, so it may be more insurance than anything else.
However, the state Democratic Party has also been sending out mailers touting the Libertarian in the race, Powell Gammill. In 2012, Gammill took a hefty 6.7 percent, winning 16,600 votes—quite a bit more than Sinema's 10,000-vote margin over Republican Vernon Parker. Democrats wouldn't mind seeing that happen again.
• CA-07: One potential pitfall for Democratic candidates in House races is if they're in "orphan races," ones without a Senate or gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket. California sort of qualifies (given Gov. Jerry Brown's stroll to re-election), which is a potential problem for freshmen in close races like Ami Bera. But the National Journal points out that Bera might get some turnout boost from down the ticket: a hotly-contested Dem-on-Dem state Senate race in the open SD-06, which partially overlaps CA-07; the race pits two state Assemblymen, Roger Dickinson and Richard Pan, against each other.
• MI-06: Republican Rep. Fred Upton, who's held the swingy 6th for 22 years while rarely breaking a sweat, has belatedly realized he has a problem against Paul Clements, who's received a lot of financial backup from Mayday PAC. (In his defense, we didn't realize Upton had a problem here either, until this week.) Outside GOP group American Future Fund has stepped up to give him some support, and now comes the news that Upton himself is springing $250,000 for a late buy of his own.
• NY-11: Rarely do we mention newspaper endorsements, but the Staten Island Advance's editorial in support of indicted GOP Rep. Mike Grimm is really something to behold. It's filled with hilarious contradictions, such as:
"Most people could do without his incessant parroting of lurid GOP attacks on the administration, but no one can say he doesn't know what he's talking about."
Does this mean that Grimm really knows how to parrot those lurid GOP attacks? The best part, though, is where the
Advance buys into Grimm's conspiracy theory that his indictment on tax evasion and fraud charges is politically driven:
Frankly, the long lag time between the alleged commission of these crimes and the indictment for them makes the indictment suspect in our eyes, especially given the highly charged political atmosphere and the degree to which his seat is coveted by the Democrats.
That's an incendiary claim to make, but Staten Island is filled with chip-on-the-shoulder types who have utterly bought into Grimm's resentment-fueled cult of personality. The
Advance speaks for those sorts of voters, and they're why Grimm could very well win another term next week.
• UT-04: Here's an indication of what a sporadically weird election cycle it's been: One of Thursday's most hotly anticipated polls was been the Utah Policy survey of the once-presumed-safe-GOP-pickup UT-04, performed by Dan Jones and Associates. It's finally out, and it continues to show this is a real race, though one where the district's dark-red lean will probably triumph in the end. Republican Mia Love leads Democrat Doug Owens only 48-43, closer than the 49-40 lead for Love they found two weeks ago. Independents are what's keeping Owens in this; they break for Owens 57-29. A few other surveys have shown this Owens looking much more competitive than expected, and we've changed our rate rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican (see our Race Ratings section).
• NRCC: Has the Greg Walden deathwatch begun? It seems that some Republicans are unhappy that Walden, as chair of the NRCC, has allowed his committee to fall so far behind its Democratic counterpart in fundraising, despite the fact that the GOP holds a majority in the House, and they also don't think Walden will meet his goal of picking up a dozen seats next week. Walden has said he wants to serve another term as chair, but two members in particular are gearing up to challenge him: Rep. Aaron Schock of Illinois and Rep. Roger Williams of Texas, a freshman. Williams in particular has been working his caucus hard, so we may see some post-election jockeying in GOP-land.
• Polling: No. I am your pollster!
• LA-05: Glascock: Ralph Abraham (R) 25, Jamie Mayo (D) 18, Vance McAlister (R-inc) 16, Zach Dasher (R) 15, Clyde Holloway (R) 10, Harris Brown (R) 7, Ed Tarpley (R) 6, Others 4
• MA-06: Emerson Coll. Polling Soc.: Richard Tisei (R) 42, Seth Moulton (D) 40 (Oct. 17: 43-40 Tisei)
• MA-09: Emerson Coll. Polling Soc.: Bill Keating (D-inc) 46, John Chapman (R) 41 (Oct. 8: 45-40 Chapman)
• NJ-03: Stockton: Tom MacArthur (R) 46, Aimee Belgard (D) 41 (Sept.: 42-42 tie)
• NJ-05: Monmouth: Scott Garrett (R-inc) 53, Roy Cho (D) 42 (Oct. 15: 48-43 Garrett)
The LA-05 poll surveys the Nov. 4 jungle primary. In the all-but-certain event that no one takes a majority, the top two candidates will advance to the Dec. 6 runoff. According to Glascock, the Make Out King of Monroe is in real danger of losing his seat in November, with him taking third place. Unfortunately Glascock still doesn't appear to offer voters the chance to say they're undecided, so take this with a grain of salt.
Monmouth raised some eyebrows earlier this month when they showed Garrett up only 5 points. Neither party has paid any attention to this race at all and with Garrett now posting an 11-point edge, it doesn't look like they ever will.
Other Races:
• WA ballot: Here's a bit of pushback on the idea that Washingtonians finally sorted out the differences between the contradictory gun initiatives (after a recent Elway poll showed some separation between them). It comes from the Univ. of Washington and Matt Barreto (who's also the guy behind Latino Decisions); they find that I-594, which would establish stricter background checks, is easily passing 64-31, while I-591, which would limit gun control measures, is also ahead, 45-43. Conventional wisdom in Washington, though, is that undecideds tend to break hard against new ballot measures, so initiatives polling under 50 in the late game tend not to pass.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: Thomas Menino, a Democrat who served five terms as Boston's mayor and always won re-election decisively, died Thursday at the age of 71. Menino had once been described as "mayor for life" and was the longest-serving mayor in the city's history, but he chose to step aside last year amid failing health.
• Demographics: Latino voters are playing a pivotal role in several major Senate and gubernatorial elections this year, including in states like Georgia where they make up a small but growing segment of the electorate. However, due to small sample sizes, it's hard for pollsters to really get a read on Hispanic voters. For instance, a recent SurveyUSA showed the Republican ticket carrying Latinos- but the sample was only 36 voters.
In a new essay, Dreaminonempty takes a look at two polls from Latino Decisions, which are designed to give us an accurate reading on how Hispanics are planning to vote in 2014 and why. There's a lot of interesting data. In the good news department, Democrat Charlie Crist is beating Republican Gov. Rick Scott 53-29 among Latinos in Florida; in 2010, Scott carried this group with 51 percent of the vote. But there are plenty of warning signs for Democrats, both for 2014 and long-term.
• Election Outlook: In the last few days Democrats have begun to feel better about Sen. Mark Begich's chances in Alaska. The Daily Kos Election Outlook tells us that Begich's odds have improved quite a bit. It was easy to dismiss two recent polls giving Begich big leads as outliers, but a poll from Republican Dan Sullivan gives us our most clear sign that things are moving in Begich's direction: Sullivan's survey only gave himself a 4-point lead, pretty weak for an internal poll and a smaller lean than most public polls had been showing.
In a new post, David Jarman explains how new polls are changing, or not changing, Election Outlook's forcast in several key states. Our model now has Begich's odds at 44 percent, up from 35 percent of Monday. The news is not so good everywhere else- we currently give Democrats only a 31 percent chance to keep the Senate, down from 34 percent earlier this week. However, there are several unpredictable factors out there that could turn a close defeat into a close victory in several key states (or vise-versa), and plenty of uncertainty in the governorships.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: Republican Tom Cotton pets his dog to prove he's not the monster Democrats are portraying him as.
• CO-Sen: Democratic spending by Fairshare Action and GOP expenditures from the NRSC and Ending Spending.
• GA-Sen: GOP spending from Ending Spending.
• IA-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce features Rand Paul vouching for Republican Joni Ernst in a 15-second spot. The NRA also shells out more dough for Team Red.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts rolls out a rare positive ad. This one stars Bill Snyder, Kansas State's football coach. Snyder's not a bad surrogate to have: An August PPP poll found that he has an 85-1 favorable rating among Kansas State fans. The NRA also spends for Roberts, while the Committee to Elect an Independent Senate spends against him.
• MI-Sen: The Humane Society spends for Democrat Gary Peters.
• NC-Sen: The NRA spends for Team Red.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has another 15-second spot starring Rand Paul praising Republican Scott Brown. On the other side, the American Federation of Teachers describes Brown as only out for himself.
• OR-Sen: The American Future Fund is one of the very few outside groups that haven't given up on Republican Monica Wehby. Their $200,000 attacks Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley as ineffective.
• SD-Sen: EveryVoice Action continues to go after independent Larry Pressler, while praising Democrat Rick Weiland.
• DSCC: Democratic expenditures.
• NRSC: GOP expenditures.
• Senate Majority PAC: Democratic expenditures.
• CO-Gov: The DGA jumps on a recent controversial spot run by Republican Bob Beauprez.
Here's the background: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is considering commuting the death sentence for convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap to life in prison. Beauprez and his allies have been attacking Hickenlooper over it, with Beauprez arguing that this is another sign the governor is weak. A different RGA ad focusing on Dunlap also made news recently and led to a great deal of controversy in its own right.
The DGA is now jumping on the controversy. The spot blames Beauprez for the ad, saying he "falsely exploits a murder," and mentions that the victims' widow asked Beauprez to stop using the tragedy in his ads. Needless to say this is a very delicate situation. The Republicans are saying that Dunlap is a valid issue: The RGA's recent spot starred the father of one of his victims calling Hickenlooper a coward.
As of Thursday night, the DGA's spot is no longer available on YouTube. It's possible that this was unintentional, but given how hot-button the topic of the ad is, it's also possible that Democrats want to keep as low a profile as possible when discussing it. We'll see if we learn more in the coming days.
If voters agree with the Democrats that Beauprez and his allies are exploiting a tragedy, it could definitely backfire for Team Red. However, if they side with the GOP and decide that Hickenlooper's actions show weakness, it could very well hurt the governor. In a close and unpredictable race like this, it's not unreasonable to say that this whole matter could decide the election.
• HI-Gov: The RGA airs another spot against Democrat David Ige, calling him part of the failing political system. The DGA has also been running ads here, indicating that nether party thinks Ige has this locked up even though he leads in the polls.
• KS-Gov: Republican Gov. Sam Brownback argues that his welfare programs are working for Kansas, while Democrat Paul Davis doesn't want a work requirement for welfare recipients.
• MA-Gov: Democrat Martha Coakley features a clip of her rally with Bill Clinton, ending with the two exchanging a hug.
On the GOP side, Charlie Baker offers some platitudes. The RGA goes negative, targeting Coakley on taxes and spending.
• ME-Gov: Democrat Mike Michaud's spot stars former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, who is also the last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Maine.
• NH-Gov: Polls have been all over the map in this contest, showing everything from a tie to a 15-point lead for Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan in the last few days alone. The RGA seems to think they have a live one here, and their new ad accuses Hassan of trashing the state economy while trying to tax everyone.
• WI-Gov: Greater Wisconsin hits Republican Gov. Scott Walker on... basically everything they can fit into 30 seconds.
• AR-02: The NRA spends a hefty $924,000 for the GOP.
• CA-17: Californians for Innovation spends another $250,000 for Ro Khanna, who faces Rep. Mike Honda, a fellow Democrat, in the general election.
• CA-52: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce gives us a rare anti-Republican general election ad. The spot attacks Republican Carl DeMaio as corrupt, while praising Democratic Rep. Scott Peters as a responsible representative. For the GOP, American Unity PAC spends $563,000.
• FL-26: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce blasts Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia over Obamacare.
• GA-12: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce praises Democratic Rep. John Barrow, who is one of the very few vulnerable Democrats they actually like. The American Future Fund attacks Barrow, who is one of the many vulnerable Democrats they very much dislike.
• IA-03: Mayday PAC spends for Team Blue.
• MA-06: Democrat Seth Moulton's closing spot emphasizes his military career.
• MI-06: Republican Rep. Fred Upton has been on the wrong end of millions of dollars worth of ads from Mayday PAC. According to a recent poll from Democratic foe Paul Clements, the entrenched Upton now has a real race on his hands. The American Future Fund appears to confirm that Upton needs some eleventh hour help, with them spending $300,000 on his behalf. Unlike almost all their commercials nationwide, this one is positive.
• MN-08: Another pro-GOP expenditure from the NRA.
• NV-04: The DCCC is now on the air here, where poor Democratic early vote turnout is putting Rep. Steven Horsford at risk. The spot attacks Republican Cresent Hardy on education.
• DCCC: Democratic expenditures.
• NRCC: GOP expenditures.
• Patriot Majority: Democratic expenditures.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty
