New York Times polling analyst Nate Cohn
says the numbers don't look good for Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in her campaign to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:
Every survey over the last month shows Mr. McConnell ahead by more than four points, including two traditional live-interview surveys that contacted voters via a cellphone, one Internet panel survey and a nonpartisan automated poll that contacted voters without a landline by means of an online panel.
On average, Mr. McConnell leads by five points, and Leo, The Upshot’s Senate election forecasting model, now gives him a 93 percent chance of winning re-election.
That's only slightly higher than Daily Kos Poll Explorer, which
puts McConnell at 89 percent, and the point is clear: All objective evidence suggests that Mitch McConnell is pulling ahead and that Grimes needs to change things up if she wants to win the election.
That's a gloomy situation, but here's the good news: Grimes has a perfect issue sitting right in front of her that could do just that—Kynect, Kentucky's implementation of Obamacare, and Mitch McConnell's support for repealing it. That would take away health insurance from one in 12 Kentucky families, and the areas where the uninsured population have dropped the most are the areas where McConnell is running strongest.
If Grimes makes saving Kynect her number one campaign issue, there's no doubt McConnell will accuse her of being an Obama stooge. Well, newsflash: He's going to do that anyway. So she might as well tout the benefits of her alleged stoogery—and point out that if McConnell gets his way, Kentucky will pay a very real price. Not only will Democratic base voters appreciate that message, but she might actually convince some of the people in eastern and western Kentucky that she needs to pry from McConnell's grip.
I hope it's not too late for Grimes to win this race, but it's certainly not too late for her to try. But playing it safe is a guaranteed loser. Grimes needs to press the reset button on the campaign to have a chance, and going after McConnell on one of his biggest weaknesses—his support for repealing health insurance from hundreds of thousands of Kentuckians—is a great way to mix things up. McConnell certainly won't be expecting it, and neither will voters. But one thing is for sure: A great way to make sure your voice is heard is to say something that people aren't expecting to hear. They'll ignore the usual stuff—that's just human nature. But if Grimes gives them a reason to listen, they will—and she just might find herself back where she wants to be, leading Mitch McConnell.
