Rep. Renee Ellmers has gone from a tea party success story to an ideological heretic
Leading Off:
• NC-02: If you told me back in January of 2011 that Renee Ellmers—Renee Ellmers!—would not be crazy enough for the GOP in just four years time ... well, there's just no way to finish that sentence, because my head has already exploded. Yet here we are, what with Ellmers apparently becoming "sane" by comparison and bits of my brain all over the room.
You see, a few days ago, Ellmers took the lead in telling her Republican colleagues that maybe they'd be better off not sticking Todd Akin's foot in their collective mouths by pushing forward with a vote on the "Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act" that would have restricted access to abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Don't get me wrong: Ellmers is totally on board with the idea—she's not sane-sane, just Republican sane—but she got queasy with language in the bill that would have only permitted an exception in the case of rape if the victim reported the rape to the authorities first.
Amazingly, the GOP leadership agreed with Ellmers and yanked the bill, but now Ellmers may have to pay the ultimate price for trying to shut that thing down. According to Emily Cahn, Chatham County Republican Party chair Jim Duncan had already been considering a primary challenge to Ellmers, and now her anti-anti-abortion meddling might be the final straw that pushes him into the race.
Ellmers faced primary opposition last year from a badly underfunded Some Dude named Frank Roche but still only managed to win 59 percent of the vote. And in 2012, against an array of nobodies, she took just 58 percent in the primary. Now, Duncan threatened to run against Ellmers last cycle too but backed off, so he may decline again. But with a track record like this, Ellmers is certainly vulnerable. She just jabbed the "pro-life" sasquatch in the eye very hard, and she may soon discover the consequences.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: It's been a few weeks since Sen. Barbara Boxer's retirement announcement and the race to succeed her remains very chaotic. Only state Attorney General Kamala Harris has officially kicked off a campaign but plenty of other Democrats are looking at joining her. Still, the list of would-be candidates did get a little smaller on Friday when state Treasurer John Chiang announced that he would not run. Chiang's name has been touted for higher office for a while and we'll probably hear from him again in 2018 when Gov. Jerry Brown is termed out and Sen. Dianne Feinstein may retire.
To help keep track of who could run on the Democratic side, dreaminonempty has created the above chart. We've included three would-be contenders who recently ruled out entering the race, but we're no longer including the many politicians who have said no to this Senate seat.
However, Rep. Xavier Becerra looks more interested than ever in running. Anna Palmer at Politico reports that Becerra is telling his colleagues and political operatives that he's very serious about a run. Becerra himself isn't being coy in public either, describing his interest in a Senate run as "One to 10, 10 being serious, 10."
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is also a potential candidate and if both he and Becerra are on the ballot, that could help Harris. Becerra represents a heavily Hispanic downtown Los Angeles seat, and the two men could split the Southern California and Latino vote. Plenty of influential Hispanic leaders want a Mexican-American senator, and there will probably be some behind-the-scenes maneuvering to keep them from both jumping in. This wouldn't be the first time the two have faced off though: In the 2001 mayoral primary Villaraigosa took first place in the primary with 30 percent, with Becerra way back in fifth place with only 6 percent (Villaraigosa lost the runoff, but won four years later).
Harris, meanwhile, is doing her best to dissuade Villaraigosa from taking the plunge. She just released a new poll from PPP that has her up 41-16 in a two-way matchup with the former mayor, and 34-9 in a multi-car pileup that would resemble a crazy-ass hypothetical primary:
State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D): 34
Former U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice (R): 33
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 9
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D): 4
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D): 3
Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R): 2
That's pretty similar
to PPP's last poll, which didn't test Villaraigosa but nevertheless found Harris as the best-positioned Dem in the top-two primary. Don't expect to see many more polls with former U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice though: The Republican has made it clear that she isn't interested in a Senate run, and she's instead
taking over as head of Jeb Bush's educational foundation.
Two other potential Democrats weren't tested but don't sound incredibly keen to run. When Boxer announced her departure former Rep. Ellen Tauscher confirmed that she was looking at the seat, but she's been very silent since then. On Thursday when she was asked about her plans Tauscher declared, "I love the private sector," before acknowledging that Harris is in a strong position though "it's very, very early." That's not exactly a no, but it doesn't sound like she's chomping at the bit to go to the Senate. It's also worth noting that Tauscher's protege Rep. Eric Swalwell just endorsed Harris, which seems to indicate that he doesn't think the former congresswoman will go for it. Harris would probably be relieved to not compete with another woman from the Bay Area in any case.
Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson hasn't gotten too much attention as a possible candidate. Johnson's office only answered "no comment," when asked about his interest but it sounds like he'd rather Villaraigosa run instead. On Thursday at a U.S. Conference of Mayors dinner honoring the former Los Angeles Mayor, Johnson told him "you've got a whole lot of mayors who are going to stand with you, no matter what you decide." If Villaraigosa doesn't join the Senate race maybe Johnson's plans will change, but it sounds like he's all in for Villaraigosa right now.
On the GOP side, Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin expressed some mild interest in this seat earlier this month but hasn't said much since then until now. On Friday she kept her name in circulation, saying she's "keeping [her] options open." Swearengin ran for state controller last year, losing 54-46 to Democrat Betty Yee, so she acquitted herself well. Still, it'll be no fun to run statewide as a Republican in California in a presidential year.
• FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has been very insistent that he won't try and run for re-election if he seeks the presidency, and it looks like he's becoming more and more serious about a White House bid. Rubio is making the early primary state swing and his aides say he'll likely decide on his plans in the next few weeks. If Rubio doesn't run for a second term there's really no shortage of Sunshine State Republicans who could succeed him, and plenty of Democrats would probably rather run for an open seat than challenge the well-funded incumbent.
And one of the strongest potential Democrats, Rep. Patrick Murphy, just reaffirmed his interest in running (or at least, his spokesman did). Last year Murphy mentioned that he was thinking about trying for a promotion and he only seems to have become more interested. Murphy's team says that the 31-year-old congressman, one of just five Democrats nationwide to hold a district Mitt Romney won in 2012, is "giving serious thought" to a bid. The DSCC would love it if a formidable candidate like Murphy got into the race (the DCCC would be less elated), especially if Rubio does seek re-election. Still, if Murphy has to deal with a primary against another prominent Democrat like Rep. and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, things could get messy.
• IL-Sen: A fourth member of the Prairie State's House delegation has now said she's potentially interested in taking on GOP Sen. Mark Kirk next year, and she might be the most interesting name to emerge to date. Rep. Robin Kelly, who represents a seat that covers southeastern Chicago and its suburbs, just told Roll Call that she's "doing [her] due diligence to look at if there is a pathway" to victory. Kelly, as you may recall, pulled off a major upset in a special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, riding a wave of disgust over gun violence to victory over two fellow Democrats who sported "A" ratings from the NRA.
But as Emily Cahn notes, the other three congresscritters considering bids—Bill Foster, Tammy Duckworth, and Cheri Bustos—each have their own strengths. All four could win their party's nomination, and all four could beat Kirk, though Democrats would rather avoid a major primary battle. (The University of Minnesota points out that the last time two sitting House members faced off in a Senate primary in Illinois was 1938.) But at least the state holds an early primary, so even if two or more candidates duke it out, there's still plenty of time for the winner to turn around and tackle Kirk.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov, AG, SoS: Secretary of State and 2014 Democratic Senate nominee Alison Grimes will announce what statewide office she will run for Monday at a rally scheduled for 12:30 PM ET. Grimes has talked about seeking the vacant governorship and attorney general's office, as well as running for re-election. (Jeff Singer)
• WA-Gov: Most observers have assumed that former Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna will be back for a rematch against Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee in the Evergreen State in 2016, but one other GOPer a little lower down the food chain is already floating his name. Bill Bryant, a Port of Seattle commissioner, is very moderate and pro-infrastructure; he'd be a solid general election candidate but it's hard to see how he'd emerge from the top-two primary against a more conservative Republican. Also, there's the slight problem that no one knows who he is yet (although port commissioner is an elected position for all of King County), though he's well-connected enough with downtown Seattle business interests that money would be there for him.
• WV-Gov: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is probably still months away from deciding if he'll run for governor in 2016 or stay in the Senate but it looks like he's edging toward a return to Charleston. Manchin is staffing up his PAC and just hired the state party chair, which would be pretty unusual behavior if he were just planning to seek re-election in 2018.
Other Races:
• Charlotte Mayor: The Democratic field for the Queen City's semi-open seat race keeps growing. After flirting with a bid for a while, Mayor Pro Tem Michael Barnes announced that he will run. Councilor David Howard also just confirmed that he's in, though he's been raising money since December. Former Mecklenburg County Commission Chair Jennifer Roberts and interim Mayor Dan Clodfelter have been running for a while, and Councilor Vi Lyles is considering joining them. The Democratic primary will be held Sept. 15 and if no one takes at least 40 percent of the vote, the top-two contenders advance to an Oct. 6 runoff. So far no notable Republicans are running.
• Las Vegas Mayor: On Tuesday, Republican Mayor Pro Tem Stavros Anthony announced that he would challenge independent Mayor Carolyn Goodman. Anthony starts out with little money but he may get help from some influential groups.
Anthony is making opposition to an expensive new soccer stadium the centerpiece of his campaign, a stance he shares with Boyd Gaming and the Culinary Union. As James DeHaven of the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes, if these organizations ally themselves with Anthony he could get a much-needed financial boost. The Culinary Union also could give Anthony some vital get-out-the-vote support in what is expected to be a low-turnout race. The non-partisan primary will be held April 7 and if no one takes a majority the general will be June 2.
• Philadelphia Mayor: When former City Solicitor Ken Trujillo unexpectedly dropped out of the open Philadelphia mayoral race on Wednesday, his statement seemed to politely request that someone else take his place on the progressive end of the candidate field, and it's already looking like he might get his wish.
City Councilor Jim Kenney said on Thursday that he's looking closely at the race and will decide "within a week or so." According to the councilor's allies, he's actually already decided to run and will make an official announcement soon. Kenney, who's pushed for marijuana decriminalization and expanded hate crimes legislation, would probably also attract much of the labor support in the race. If you want a closer picture of Kenney, check out the highlights from his free-ranging Twitter feed, which is accurately described here as "Philadelphia's id."
Kenney isn't the only one looking at jumping into the May 19 Democratic primary. City Controller Alan Butkovitz surprised plenty of people in November when he deferred to Council President Darrell Clarke and chose not to run. But Clarke himself recently pulled the plug on his expected campaign, and Butkovitz is reconsidering his own plans. The controller said on Friday that he'll take a look at the Feb. 2 campaign finance reports to see how much his would-be foes are raising before deciding what to do. Right now the Democratic field consists of former District Attorney Lynne Abraham; former Judge Nelson Diaz; state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams; and former Philadelphia Gas Works Vice President Doug Oliver.
Another familiar name, businessman Sam Katz, is also checking out the race. Katz has run for the mayor's office three times. He even came very close to winning once, as the Republican nominee in 1999 against John Street: If he'd pulled it off he would have given Team Red their first victory here since Bernard Samuel was re-elected in 1947. This time, the moderate-maybe-even-liberal Katz has ruled out running as a Republican, though it's unclear whether he'd run as a Democrat or an independent.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: The Wall Street Journal has an interesting overview of trends in Americans moving places (it debunks five myths about migration, though they probably aren't myths to you if you've been paying close attention). Americans are less mobile than they were in previous decades, though the Journal points out that this is partly a good thing: Regional economies are more diverse than they used to be, so you don't need to uproot your life if the industry you're in falters. But Americans are still more mobile than people in most developed countries.
Maybe most interestingly, it debunks the notion that once Americans retire, they move somewhere sunnier and/or cheaper. Instead, most moving across state lines occurs in early adulthood, for employment or education opportunities; the older you are, the less likely to you are to move. Also, traditional patterns where the suburbs out-gain the cities are starting to return. The surge in cities in the first post-recession years is looking more like a temporary blip, probably economic in nature -- the usual pattern of renting in the city, then buying in the suburbs, got disrupted by the stagnant wages and tighter credit of the late 2000s and early 2010s.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.