Ted Strickland
:
• OH-Sen: Well, well, well. It looks like Ted Strickland is for-real serious about maybe possibly running for Senate—perhaps. The former governor has quit his job at the Center for American Progress, a top Democratic think tank, and now openly says he's "testing the waters" for a bid against GOP Sen. Rob Portman with an online fundraising effort.
Also interesting is that Strickland felt the need to address the candidacy of fellow Democrat P.G. Sittenfeld, a 30-year-old Cincinnati city councilman who recently said he'd raised $500,000 for his own nascent (but actual) Senate bid. Strickland, 73, says he's talked to Sittenfeld but hasn't asked him to stand down and says he's not worried about the sums Sittenfeld has amassed so far. For his part, Sittenfeld doesn't sound ready to defer to Strickland, so it's possible that we could see a contested Democratic primary.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez announced on Tuesday that he's forming an "exploratory committee" to weigh a bid for retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer's seat, though he'd have an incredibly uphill journey before him should he actually choose to run. Not only would any Republican be a serious underdog in the general election, but Chavez has a fairly moderate reputation, which would put him at a disadvantage in the primary if a more conservative Republican were to also enter the race.
• FL-Sen: Citing anonymous Democratic operatives who wouldn't consent to be quoted on the record, reporter Marc Caputo concludes that Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who hasn't publicly declared any interest running for Senate but hasn't ruled it out, either, is "strongly considering" a bid. Caputo also says that ex-Gov. Charlie Crist is "expressing some interest" behind the scenes, but again, there are no quotes, and Crist, like Wasserman Schultz, wouldn't comment for the story.
So far, the only major Democrats to confirm they're looking at the race are Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson, who has said he wouldn't run if Wasserman Schultz does. Murphy is the DSCC's favorite and would be the party's strongest option in the general election (whether or not Marco Rubio runs for president), but the same moderate profile that would aid him in in November would make it harder for him to win a primary against a more liberal candidate like Grayson or Wasserman Schultz.
• MO-Sen: At this point, if you're a sitting Republican senator who's ever shown even the slightest deference to the establishment, chances are conservative activists would love to claim your scalp as soon as the next primary rolls around. But somehow, Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, who is very much in the establishment mold, has avoided any talk of a serious challenge, and reporter Deirdre Shesgreen attempts to explain why.
Part of it may be a desire to avoid another Todd Akin situation, though that sort of pragmatism is rarely seen among the tea party set. More convincing is the fact that Blunt, unlike, say, a Dick Lugar or a Pat Roberts, actually seems to spend time cultivating home-state conservatives. On top of that, he's also benefitting from an open gubernatorial race that's attracting plenty of attention from fellow Republicans.
One of those is wealthy businessman John Brunner, who lost the Senate nomination to Akin back in 2012 but is now a potential candidate for governor. Brunner was recently paired against Blunt in a poll from a conservative group, which found the incumbent ahead by a pretty comfortable 50-19 margin. But Brunner, reports Shesgreen, emphatically declared he would not take on Blunt, saying he had "no, no, no" interest in doing so.
• UT-Sen: One of the best pieces of advice I've ever gotten in this industry was "Write it before it doesn't happen!" So props to all the reporters who managed to pen articles on Monday about a supposed movement to draft ex-Gov. (and former Obama aide) Jon Huntsman to challenge Sen. Mike Lee in the GOP primary, because Huntsman himself said no to a bid on Tuesday. (The original claim came from CNN's John King, who has a history of peddling rumors like this that go nowhere.)
Huntsman, a moderate figure who is the perfect central casting embodiment of the GOP establishment, did say that he would not "rule out another run" for office some day. However, he also hinted that if another alternative to the tea-guzzling Lee emerges, he might be willing to help that person out.
Gubernatorial:
• OR-Gov: With the John Kitzhaber story dying down ever since he announced his resignation on Friday, the Beltway media can get back to forgetting that Oregon exists. There are still a lot of loose ends, though, which we'll tie off below. The most significant one is that Kate Brown, who'll become governor on Wednesday, won't serve the remaining 97 percent of Kitzhaber's term, which would otherwise expire at the end of 2018; under Oregon law, she'll have to go before voters in a special election in 2016.
The real threat to Brown seems to be in the Democratic primary; some or all of the other statewide officials who probably would have faced off against Brown in what would have been an open seat primary in 2018 will instead move their timetable up by two years. Politico lists state Treasurer Ted Wheeler as likeliest to run, along with Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian and state House speaker Tina Kotek.
Oregon's Republican bench, on the other hand, is pretty depleted, at least when it comes to figures moderate enough to win statewide. Former state Rep. Dennis Richardson, who lost to Kitzhaber in 2014, says he has "no intention" of seeking a rematch. State Rep. Knute Buehler, a more centrist figure who lost the 2012 secretary of state election to Brown and then was elected to the state House in 2014, may be the GOP's best bet; he's given a non-answer about his interest, but he hasn't ruled it out yet.
There's also the question of whom Brown will appoint to replace herself as secretary of state for the next two years. Kotek has already said she doesn't want the job, while state House majority leader Val Hoyle and state Senate majority leader Diane Rosenbaum get Great Mentioner treatment by the Oregonian. Another possibility for Brown would be appointing Avakian, thus taking a potential primary challenger out of the game.
As far as sorting through the "why" behind how Kitzhaber got dragged down, Jeff Mapes' retrospective on Kitz provides some insights. As we discussed last week, a lot of it seems to have do to with his "lonesome cowboy" status and lack of relationships with other Democratic officials who might have otherwise had his back
As far as motive goes—i.e. why the usually scrupulous Kitzhaber started hanging out in the ethical grey area—the Oregonian also reports on how financially strapped the governor's household was, thanks in large part of Kitzhaber's child and marital support bills from his previous marriages; that may have provoked some more risk-taking behavior. More will be revealed in coming months, though, now that a federal grand jury investigation has been launched by Oregon's U.S. Attorney.
There's also the interesting angle of just how much all of this was the Oregonian's doing, since they're the ones who launched the bolt-from-the-blue editorial calling for Kitzhaber's resignation that caused an unexpected snowball leading to the governor's departure. Oregon's other major paper, the Salem Statesman-Journal, is still left wondering what the big deal is, with their executive editor smacking down the Oregonian's board not just for showboating but for inserting themselves into the story.
• VT-Gov: Republican businessman Scott Milne, who came within a hair's breadth of pulling off what would have been the most remarkable upset of 2014, says he'll take a "serious look" at running for governor again next year. (Vermont's gubernatorial terms are just two years long.) Milne lost to Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin, whom no analyst had considered vulnerable, by just 1.3 percent. Because Shumlin didn't clear 50 percent of the vote, the election was thrown to the legislature—another quirk of Vermont law—which did give Shumlin a third term, though several members of the Democratic majority defected to Milne.
Still, despite the closeness of the election, Milne would face a much tougher time in 2016, when Vermont is a safe bet to remain blue on the presidential level. One question, though, is whether Shumlin will run again. After his close scrape, as well as the fact that he recently had to admit defeat on implementing his dream of single-payer health insurance, it's very possible that Shumlin will decide to retire.
House:
• AZ-01: Somewhat surprisingly, the National Journal's Jack Fitzpatrick reports that former state House Speaker Andy Tobin is preparing to run against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick again, even though newly elected Gov. Doug Ducey just appointed Tobin to his cabinet. (Tobin now has a title that sounds like it's straight out of the colonial era: Director of Weights and Measures.) But there are no direct quotes from Tobin, and he performed quite poorly last year, losing by 5 points despite the GOP wave and despite the 1st District's red lean.
Tobin would also have to deal with wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne in the primary again. Kiehne announced last week that he'll try once more, and he lost out on the nomination to Tobin by less than a point—just 400 votes. But both candidates have their own flaws and the NRCC would probably like to see a fresh face emerge.
• NY-11: A little over a week ago, a bunch of residents of New York's vacant 11th Congressional District (led by a local Republican operative) filed a lawsuit to force Gov. Andrew Cuomo to set a date for a special election, and on Tuesday, they got what they wanted. The judge hearing the case ordered Cuomo to either schedule the election by Friday or provide justification for his delay—or else, said the judge, he'll go ahead and schedule the election himself.
There'd been hints that Cuomo might try to hold off until November of 2016, which conceivably would benefit Democrats since they'd theoretically get a presidential boost. But while Cuomo's attorneys argued that the governor has basically unfettered discretion in when to call a special, the judge ruled that the public's right to representation trumps whatever Cuomo might think he's entitled to do. And even if Cuomo were to get his way, such a nakedly political move to force an obscenely long vacancy could easily cause backlash among voters.
In any event, Cuomo's office didn't quite say whether the governor would comply with the judge's order but rather claimed he'd "announce the date" for the special election "shortly." (That's pretty classic Cuomo. Who knows what it might even mean?) And speaking of heel-dragging, local Democrats still haven't picked a candidate, though the Staten Island branch of the party did interview three candidates last week (New York City Councilman Vincent Gentile, Assemblyman William Colton, and labor activist Robert Holst.)
If Cuomo does indeed follow the judge's instructions, though, party leaders will need to choose a nominee quickly, because New York law does specify that a special election must take place within 70 to 80 days after a governor proclaims one. However, polling shows Democrats facing absurdly steep odds here against the Republican standard-bearer, Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, so a desultory campaign may well be in the offing.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
