Bernie Sanders and Minority Voters in Democratic Primaries

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Friday May 22, 2015 · 7:11 AM PDT

2015/05/22 · 07:11

The 2008 Democratic presidential primaries were so fascinating to me on a number of fronts, demographically speaking. But the most fascinating thing that occurred in these primaries was how African-American voters and white, educated, upper middle class voters turned out in Democratic primaries and voted for Barack Obama.

Historically speaking, these voting groups had a tendency to back different candidates in Democratic primaries, but in 2008, they voted in record numbers for Obama and this coalition lead to Obama winning the nomination.

There were two states, Maryland and Virginia, both won by Obama in 2008, that showcased how powerful this coalition was.

In Virginia, Obama swept the primary and obliterated Hillary Clinton with 64% of the vote, on the strength of Obama sweeping localities like Fairfax County (Obama 60%) in Northern Virginia, Chesterfield County (Obama 71%) and Henrico County (Obama 73%) in suburban Richmond, and the City of Virginia Beach (Obama 65%).

In predominately white, upper middle class precincts in all four localities, but in particular, the Richmond suburbs, and Virginia Beach, Obama outperformed his statewide average by sweeping these precincts. And in these same localities, Obama annihilated Clinton in largely African-American precincts, winning up to 92% of the vote, in a high turnout election.

Ditto for Maryland. Obama swept Montgomery County (58% for Obama), Prince George's County (78% for Obama) and Baltimore County (55% for Obama), although Obama appear to have performed better with upscale white voters in Virginia than in Maryland.

As I stated earlier, this coalition was historic, but the question is, can it be duplicated by Bernie Sanders? Of course not - African-Americans turned out in historic numbers for an historic first - to nominate the first AA to head a national ticket in a presidential election. But if Sanders is to win the nomination, he is going to have to attract a lot of votes from minority voters.

Democratic, progressive candidates running in Democratic party primaries appear, for the most part, to run better amongst middle and upper middle class, progressive, white voters but always seem to struggle with minority voters.

Why is that?

Is it that the issues that are most important to white progressives within the party, who vote in Democratic primaries not as important to minority voters? Are their priorities different? Are issues of jobs, the economy, civil rights, etc., more important to minority voters within the party and issues related income inequality, global warming, the NSA and the Patriot Act more important to progressive, white voters? Is there a difference, based on income, education, or culture that these groups tend to vote differently in Democratic primaries? And if that is the case, how does Sanders put a winning coalition together?

I ask these questions because clearly, Bernie Sanders is going to have to figure this out. I have no doubt that Sanders can compete with Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire next year - caucus and primary voters in both states are overwhelmingly white with strong progressive steaks running through them, especially in Iowa. But once those two states votes and the primary calendar shifts to states like South Carolina and Nevada, which have large African-American and Latino populations who votes in each states primary/caucus, will Sanders be able to compete with Clinton in caucuses in Las Vegas with Latino voters or African-American voters in Florence and Columbia, South Carolina?

Clearly, Sanders' campaign is going to have to work hard for the votes of minority voters, who will have a huge influence in big primary states like New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois and California, that will have a huge role in determining who the nominee is.

Will Sanders be able to compete with Clinton for the votes of minority voters? Please share your thoughts with us.

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