Donald Trump: Absolutely schooled Bush and Walker and basically kicked Rand Paul to the curb like he was a plastic cup on the street. Trump has brought both of these well funded candidates to their knees. That situation just got worse for Bush and Walker, not just because of Trump, but also because Carly Fiorina had more fight than either of them (and was actually scarier...more on that below...).
Trump took a hit from Fiorina on his sexism, but I don't think it hurt him with his base one bit. Her bellicose rhetoric actually seemed to make Trump's attack look less harsh in retrospect. She's not Laura Bush. She's craaazzzzyyy. I also didn't think Fiorina delivered her catch line as well as the CNN and HuffPo sites suggest.
Trump was actually much more interesting on issues on tax fairness, Syria/global relations and Iran. He also rather calmly sliced Carly Fiorina's HP experience in a few short statements. He displayed a thoughtful side on top of the bombastic, pompous rhetoric. I think he got stronger in this debate. More voters who came in thinking he was a clown may think that there is something more behind the mask. I would also reiterate that he does describe his immigration plan substantively (however odious). He seems like a Republican of the 1980s which is what I think the Tea Party and older GOPers want.
Carly Fiorina: I disliked Carly Fiorina's performance intensely. I despised it. Why? Because she argued a load of terrible neocon, Heritage Foundation, CATO Institute and other GOP think tank talking points on foreign and domestic policy. But she did so with energy (and a rather unlikeable scowl). She clearly outpaced Bush and Walker. However, I think that she went overboard, even for Republicans. She acted like the voice of the GOP establishment and I think the GOP voters have effectively rejected the ideology of elite GOP establishment. You could sense that the other establishment candidates started to worry about Fiorina when Christie dismissed her when she was attacking Trump's record in Atlantic City.
Scott Walker: He has gone from a front-runner to an afterthought. He might quit before Iowa and I couldn't be happier about it. I think he and Bush are the 2 most dangerous candidates for America. I could now see the Koch brothers pulling the plug on Scotty boy by Thanksgiving.
Jeb! Bush: He got kneecapped by Trump so many times that I couldn't keep count. His most stirring comment was his awkward defense of his brother's foreign policy, another argument that Trump won (this time on substance). Bush got a loud applause inside the room, but you could tell from how Carson, Trump and Paul positioned themselves, that they don't think being pro-Iraq War is a real winner with the Republican electorate. Trump has emasculated Bush completely in a way that his brother would have never allowed to happen. The answer to being accused of being 'weak' isn't 'look I wrote a book about this.' He has fallen further than I expected more quickly and it is quite possible that Fiorina will become the GOP Establishment's #1 candidate. If Bush left the race, the nation should throw a party.
Ben Carson: He actually had a good debate. He spoke in complete sentences. He was much more careful about making direct references to popular GOP conspiracies and came across as less desperate than Bush, less hapless than Walker, Christie and Rubio and less strident than Huckabee and Cruz without surrendering any of his conservative credentials and without exposing his paucity of actual knowledge. Trump schooled him a little bit on taxation, but he stuck to GOP talking points. He also danced close to Trump on the issue of immigration, suggesting that he understands the politics behind it in the GOP. A much better and more clever performance. In retrospect I think he has pushed up in the polls because Huckabee has been so bad. After this debate, he'll stabilize his support.
Rand Paul: You know, in a sea of trash Paul actually had some refreshingly sane things to say on foreign policy and on drug policy. I give him credit for cooling the war mongering rhetoric. He sounded like the Rand Paul people thought he could be when he first joined the race. However, I saw a guy who would rather be a Senator than President. I think he looked relaxed because he knows he is not going to be in the race for much longer. And there is no getting around the body slam that Trump gave him in the first few minutes of the debate.
Chris Christie: He added very little, but it sounded to me as if he was Trump's wingman at times against Fiorina and Bush. He seemed to affirm Trump's immigration policy as a serious endeavor instead of a cheap racist stunt. BTW there is something really wrong with a guy who retells an elaborate lie over and over again even after it has been exposed (his 9/11 story). He lacks character.
Ted Cruz: No matter what he says he always comes across as an a**hole. He is what he is. He also got buried in Senate speak on Iran, government shutdowns, immigration and other issues. Made very little impact.
Marco Rubio: Was worse in this debate than the prior debate. Still sounds like a guy who studies cliff notes before speaking. Has no real core set of beliefs. Kind of a lightweight. I think he'll pick up a point or two from Bush but Fiorina will also get a few points as well.
John Kasich: Sounds like he's running to be Hillary's VP nominee. Seriously, when did this guy become such a Catholic Nun? It's a great act but I don't think it works in a GOP primary unless he gets a big media campaign behind him. Does Koch choose him as the anti-Trump? Really? The 'successes' he claims in Congress and in Ohio were basically hand delivered to him by two Democratic Presidents. He wouldn't last in a General Election.
Mike Huckabee: A shrill bible thumper who knows nothing about policy, morality or critical thinking. He makes Carson look sane. Every time I see or hear him I thank God that Bill Clinton had the incredible political skills to get people who think like Huckabee to vote for Clinton multiple times. After all, Clinton won the votes of a lot of people who also voted for Huckabee in Arkansas.
Overall, I think Trump did very well and consolidated his position and probably also picked off a number of people who had initially dismissed him as a clown. Fiorina did well, but relative to the other establishment candidates (Bush, Walker, Rubio, Christie) not relative to Trump or Carson. Carson did not hurt himself and probably will get whatever is left of Huckabee's support.
Walker is on life support. Bush remains in the doldrums and his emasculation by Trump could be fatal. Fiorina made a case to fill the vacuum as the establishment candidate, and that will further hamper Bush. The only thing he has going for him is residual strength in the South where his brother and father got a lot of votes. But based on recent polling and with now Fiorina as a possible challenger for the establishment vote, the South might not be as strong a firewall for him.
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