Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-IL):
Despite Senate passage of an immigration reform bill last Congress, a small group of Republicans who oppose immigration were able to hold the rest of the House -- and the country -- hostage and prevent a House vote on immigration reform. There were sufficient House votes to get a bill to the President’s desk for signature, but they literally threatened Boehner's job if he called the vote. With Speaker Boehner stepping down and his job no longer on the line, there is no reason not to have a vote. He should call a vote on immigration reform, and I think in my heart that Speaker Boehner would stand with us, with his country, and with the immigrant and Latino community. Speaker Boehner now has the opportunity to respond to the Pope’s moral call and rise above the racism and the xenophobia that is gripping the Republican Party and call the vote.
Philip Bump:
Sorry, conservatives. John Boehner’s scalp won’t cure what ails you.
There are two bigger problems. First, that contingent doesn't have the votes to elect someone else. It didn't at the outset of the 113th Congress, when Boehner faced unusual but still limited opposition in his reelection bid as speaker. It didn't at the beginning of this Congress either, when 25 members voted against him — just 10 percent of the caucus. More recently, about 30-35 members have joined in the effort to oust Boehner — enough to hold up the budget process, but not to be the driving force in the election of a speaker.
There still almost certainly aren't enough votes to pick an outsider to replace Boehner, meaning that the problem might fade a bit, but it's unlikely to go away. As our Chris Cillizza noted, a party that wants to elect Donald Trump isn't going to be thrilled at electing Kevin McCarthy.
And second: The problem was never really Boehner. As New York's Jonathan Chait points out and that first Fox poll result shows, the frustration is that House Republicans can't beat Obama. The conservative caucus wants to defund Obamacare, for example, which has nothing to do with Boehner or McConnell's ability to move their base. The compromises on Obamacare have been between reality and fantasy.
John Avlon:
“I consider this a victory for the crazies,” said one Republican congressman who attended the meeting in which Speaker John Boehner shocked the political world by announcing his resignation.
Boehner, the consummate congressional dealmaker, faced another looming government shutdown. His abrupt decision to resign at the end of October is a sign that there are no more deals to be made with the conservative Kamikaze caucus.
The fundamentalist crew that Boehner-allied Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes has called “lemmings with suicide vests” and “right-wing Marxists” has been preparing to take the country to the brink of shutdown and default again this fall over their demand to defund Planned Parenthood and refusal to raise the debt ceiling.
John Hudak:
What will happen next is quite interesting. First, the House needs to elect a new Speaker. This will be the first time in over a quarter century that the House will choose a new chief mid-Congress. Many believe House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the favorite to succeed to the speakership. However, the wrangling for Congress’ top job may not be the biggest story—or even the biggest fight.
The House majority leadership is sizable: beneath the Speaker serves the Majority Leader; Majority Whip; Republican Conference Chair, Vice-Chair, and Secretary; and Policy Committee Chair. This excludes the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Deputy Whips, committee chairs, and a host of others in formal and informal roles that help lead the GOP’s 247 members.
An ideal, orderly next step would be for everyone to move up one rung in the leadership ladder, and select a new member to the most junior member of leadership. The ideal and the real, however, rarely line up. Leadership fights are bruising and territorial. Those challenges are exacerbated by a party that is fractured and divisive. Conservative members of the House GOP who helped oust Boehner will battle mainstream Republicans and (especially) Boehner loyalists. The result: tremendous challenges in restructuring the leadership in a smooth fashion.
Sarah Binder:
The surprise news that Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) will resign the speakership in October heralds the close of a tumultuous period in House leadership — and the opening of a new period likely to prove just as tumultuous. A large, divided Republican conference — no matter who leads it next — will find that it has no greater ability to rein in the power and size of government.
Why are the prospects for change so slim? And what are the implications for Congress this fall?
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