A new poll gives Louisiana Republican David Vitter a 16-point deficit against his likely Democratic foe
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• LA-Gov: On behalf of the Lake Charles station KPLC and Raycom Media, Multi-Quest International (whom we've seen very little from over the years) surveys both the Oct. 24 jungle primary and the likely Nov. 21 runoff between Democrat John Bel Edwards and Republican David Vitter. Like every other pollster who has released numbers in the last few weeks, Multi-Quest has these two men easily taking the two runoff spots: Edwards and Vitter have 24 and 21 respectively, while Republicans Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle are stuck in the high-single digits.
The runoff numbers are a lot more interesting. Edwards posts an enormous 48-32 lead against Vitter among registered voters. This margin is even larger than a recent PPP survey for an anti-Vitter group that had the Democrat up 50-38, though another independent poll from Clarus Research Group gave Edwards a more modest 44-41 edge. Multi-Quest found that among respondents they consider "most likely" to vote, Edwards leads 52-33, which is at least a good indication that Democrats won't suffer off-year turnout issues.
This poll was conducted from Oct. 7 to the 13th, right as the RGA was starting their million-dollar attack against Edwards. Until the RGA opened its coffers, Edwards had spent the entire campaign untouched as Vitter and his two Republican foes went after one another. Republicans have had plenty of success linking red state Democrats to the unpopular Obama administration, and we'll need to see if Edwards can survive the onslaught. Daily Kos Elections just released our initial gubernatorial race ratings and we rate Louisiana as Likely Republican (see our Gubernatorial item below for more). However, if other polls give Edwards the lead after he's had to absorb some GOP blows, we'll definitely revisit our outlook.
3Q Fundraising:
Senate:
• CT-Sen: CNBC talking head Larry Kudlow is still mulling a run against Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, but a new Quinnipiac poll basically tells him not to bother. Quinnipiac gives Blumenthal a 61-27 lead, almost identical to the senator's 61-26 edge against declared opponent Augie Wolf. Even though Kudlow has been on national TV for over a decade, 84 percent of respondents say they don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Wolf, who was the United States indoor shot put national champion in 1984, is slightly more anonymous, which will come as a massive surprise to anyone else who spends their weekends watching tapes of 1980s indoor shot put tournaments.
• IL-Sen: Democrat Tammy Duckworth has been competitive with Republican incumbent Mark Kirk in fundraising, and she outraised him $1.46 million to $1.05 million over the last three months. Kirk still has a $3.6 million to $2.8 million cash on hand lead, but that's not a very intimidating advantage for a very vulnerable incumbent in an expensive state.
Duckworth does have to get through the primary against former Chicago Urban League head Andrea Zopp, but so far Zopp's fundraising is not great. Zopp brought in only $425,000 over the last three months, and has $816,000 in the bank.
• NC-Sen: Former state House Majority Whip Deborah Ross has announced that she will challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year. Ross joins Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey in the primary but according to Roll Call, local Democrats don't think that Rey will put up much of a fight. State Sen. Joel Ford is also considering, though there isn't much time before the March primary.
Ross has a reputation as a progressive, which should help her in the primary. However, North Carolina is still a light red state, and the GOP will almost certainly portray her as too liberal if they get the chance. Ross has very little name recognition, though it sounds like she has enough connections to raise a respectable amount of money. Burr has never been popular during his two terms in the Senate, but he hasn't made any major missteps either. A Democratic win next year likely depends on a blue wave hitting North Carolina and sweeping the fairly anonymous incumbent out, something that neither Ross nor Burr has any real control over.
• PA-Sen: Braddock Mayor John Fetterman is one of several Democratic Senate candidates who aired introductory ads during Tuesday's presidential debate. Fetterman's minute-long spot highlights Braddock's economic challenges, and promotes his work helping to revitalize the town. Fetterman then calls Braddock a roadmap to build a stronger state.
Gubernatorial:
• WV-Gov: Coal billionaire Jim Justice, a Democrat, is out with the first TV ad of the campaign. Justice's spot features employees at The Greenbrier praising him for saving the hotel and praising him for its good paying jobs. Justice then argues that he'll do for the state what he did for the Greenbrier. Presumably, he doesn't mean buy it.
• Gubernatorial:
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our
initial set of gubernatorial race ratings for the 2015-16 cycle. There aren't nearly as many gubernatorial contests over the next two years as there were last year, but there are still plenty of exciting races.
Next month, we have a Tossup race in Kentucky between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin; we also give Democrat John Bel Edwards an outside shot in Louisiana. In 2016, Democrat will make flipping North Carolina a major priority, but they're on the defensive almost everywhere else. Click through to learn more, and to see all of our ratings in a single chart.
House:
• CA-24: Santa Barbara Councilor Dale Francisco seemed to rule out a bid for this open seat a few months ago when he attended Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian's campaign kick off. However, Francisco has filed papers with the FEC to run here, though he hasn't announced anything. Francisco, a Republican, ran here in 2014, but took fourth place in the top-two primary with only 12 percent of the vote.
The GOP was initially excited when Achadjian announced that he would run, but his initial fundraising was very weak (Achadjian has not yet announced his third quarter haul). Justin Fareed, another 2014 GOP candidate, is also seeking this seat. Two credible Democrats, Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal and Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider, are running here and as long as there are more Republicans on the primary ballot, it's extremely unlikely that Democrats will be shut out of the general election. Obama carried this coastal seat 54-43 and GOP hopes dependent on either a strong Achadjian campaign or a top-two fuck up for Team Blue.
• CA-46: On Tuesday, Ted Lieu became the sixth California House member to endorse ex-state Sen. Lou Correa. Disappointingly, Correa's press release did not say "Lieu for Lou." Correa faces three other Democrats, but he has been picking up endorsements from state politicians: He also has the backing of Treasurer and potential 2018 statewide candidate John Chiang and powerful state Senate leader Kevin de León. Correa's initial fundraising quarter was weak, and we'll soon see if his establishment support helped him over the last three months.
• FL-10, 05: Redistricting is about to nuke Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown's seat, and there seemed to be no doubt that she'd choose to run in the new version of the Jacksonville-area 5th District. But The Florida Times-Union reports that there are rumors that Brown is interested in running in the Orlando-area 10th instead. When Brown was asked about her plans, all her office did was pass along a statement saying she has "filed a lawsuit in federal court to ensure that minorities have access to proper representation and the ability to elect a candidate of their choice." That's not a no.
Both the new versions of the 5th and the 10th (pending final court approval) are heavily Democratic seats. However, while the 5th includes a huge share of Brown's Jacksonville base, the 10th only contains a small portion of Brown's current seat. It's hard to know what Brown is thinking here. She's likely to face a credible primary challenge in the 5th from a Tallahassee-area candidate: Ex-state Sen. Al Lawson is publicly mulling a bid, and Rep. Gwen Graham may run here now that her old district has turned safely red.
But both former Orlando police chief Val Demings and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson are already running for the 10th, and a few other candidates are considering. Maybe Brown believes that she might have a better shot in a crowded primary around Orlando, but thinks she'll lose in a one-on-one fight up north.
Brown may also just not really understand each seat's demographics. Brown has insisted that the 5th will not be safely Democratic, which is complete bunk. She also claims that the new 5th won't elect an African American, even though 63 percent of the primary electorate would be black. The 10th has a significant Hispanic population, though like Brown, Demings and Thompson are black.
Brown could also be convinced that she has a good chance to prevail in court and save her current Jacksonville-to-Orlando seat, and has no intention of running for the new 10th. Brown's odds are not good, but she doesn't seem to know or care.
• IL-13: Former Macon County Commissioner Mark Wicklund has confirmed that he will challenge sophomore Republican Rodney Davis. Wicklund admits he hasn't spoken to the DCCC, which isn't a great sign. Romney only narrowly carried this seat but 2012 Democratic nominee David Gill is running as an independent, making Team Blue's tough task all the more difficult.
Mayoral:
• Columbus, OH Mayor: Zach Scott is out with his second general election ad, and he's once again focusing on corruption allegations against rival Andrew Ginther, a fellow Democrat. The narrator ties Ginther to lobbyist John Raphael, who recently admitted to bribing politicians. The ad hits Ginther for taking a trip with Raphael to a football game, and notes that he's under investigation by the Ohio Ethics Commission.
• Sacramento, CA Mayor: Democratic Mayor Kevin Johnson is mulling a run for an unprecedented third term next year, and promises to make his decision "pretty soon." However, Johnson has been drawing some very ugly headlines recently, and he may have a tougher challenge than he expected if he seeks re-election.
Johnson has faced sexual misconduct allegations throughout his political career, but nothing has ever stuck. However, Deadspin recently posted a 1995 police interrogation video showing Mandi Koba, then 16, accusing Johnson of molesting her. Johnson has always denied the allegations, and Johnson signed a $230,000 settlement agreement with her in 1997. Voters knew about some of this story in 2008 when he was first elected mayor, but they didn't know the name of Johnson's accuser then or about the video. Koba says that part of her agreement with Johnson was that she wouldn't speak publicly about this, but she's breaking it now because she's finished "protecting him."
There's already been some short-term fallout for Johnson. On Monday, ESPN announced that it would hold off on releasing a documentary detailing how Johnson kept the Sacramento Kings from moving to Seattle in 2011. Kerri Asbury, who heads the county Democratic Party, has called for the mayor to resign, though the local Democratic establishment has always had a bad relationship with Johnson.
It's very unclear what will happen next. Johnson has plenty of allies in the business community, and if this story doesn't sink him, he could very well win another term. Johnson has dodged these types of allegations throughout his career: As recently as April, a former city employee filed a claim saying Johnson had spent months sexually harassing her, but an investigation concluded the claim was unsubstantiated. But Koba's story is making national headlines, and Johnson can't just ignore it and hope it goes away.
Former state Senate leader Darrell Steinberg and Councilor Angelique Ashby are both eyeing this post, and it's possible they may challenge Johnson. Former Democratic Assemblyman Roger Dickinson is also a possible contender. Things are very much in flux here, but Johnson doesn't have too long to decide on his 2016 plans.
Legislative:
• VA State Senate: Aside from an open seat race in the Richmond area, Northern Virginia's SD-13 gives Democrats their best chance at a state Senate pickup (Democrats need to net one seat to retake the chamber). Romney won this district 51-48 and Ken Cuccinelli took it 50-45 in the 2013 gubernatorial contest, but Team Blue hopes that incumbent Dick Black's extremist reputation will give physician Jill McCabe an opening.
McCabe is out with a new TV spot that's basically a collection of Black's top hits: The narrator reminds viewers about Black's anti-gay rhetoric, dismissal of rape in the military, opposition to birth control, and calls for women to have a transvaganal ultra sound before getting an abortion. Democrats also tried to make the 2011 contest a referendum on Black's views but lost 57-43, and McCabe needs to hope that voters have grown tired of his routine after four years.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
