This is a continuation of a post I wrote during the 2014 Mid-Term Elections. I want to make this a recurring topic in line with the project Crowdsourcing the 50 State Strategy. The idea is that the Democratic Party needs to be far more competitive in far more downballot races, other than just the Presidency and other Federal offices. I do not think this is a far-fetched idea by any means; getting informed and getting organized is the key.
When it comes to the 2016 Elections, there is certainly going to be a lot of coverage on the Senate races already. With 24 Republican-held seats up for election, this is our best opportunity to undo some of the damage that was wrought by the 2010 Republican-wave.
Most of the coverage, however, will focus on the more hotly-contested races. My own state’s race against Pat Toomey, for example, will surely garner a lot of interest.
What often gets left behind, though, are those races not deemed quite as contested, and therefore, not as noteworthy.
That doesn’t mean, though, that we want these seats to go completely uncontested. Which is already a dangerously-present trend.
I live in Monroe County, NY. It includes a primarily Democratic core city (Rochester) with a hub of more conservative, Republican leaning suburbs. The election was for local offices, County Executive (quite powerful), District Attorney, all the local judges, and also all the seats for for our county legislators. The local town Supervisor, town Justice two and town Council member seats were also on the ballot. I expected to see Dems running for every office. Every office. Yet aside from the ones where a county wide vote was needed for election, there were no democrats on the ballot. No Democrat running to represent me in my county legislature. No Democrat running for any of the town council seats, or town supervisor or town justice.
None.
My little election might not mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I think it is emblematic of the problems the Democratic Party as an institution faces today. A failure of nerve, of grit if you will, a willingness to back only the sure thing, or at least the sure thing as they see it. A failure to promote a progressive agenda out of fear of losing their corporate sponsors and their gravy train lobbyist jobs. In short, a failure to believe in democracy.
As it stands, 11 of the 24 Republican-held seats are currently without even one official Democratic Party challenger. That is 11 too many. It is a sad state of affairs if the party we stand behind in a largely two-Party system can not field a reliable slate of candidates for most every downballot office up for election. All the moreso if they can not manage it for multiple state-wide federal offices.
Of course, it should not be surprising that these states show up on the list. All of these races fall under the Safely Republican category in the Daily Kos Elections ratings. They are historically-hostile territory for Democrats, even under the best circumstances.
That does not change the fact that the Democratic Party should have people running for these offices, always. At the end of the day, these states are home to many of our own fellow Dems and kossacks; they deserve a legitimate Senate candidate on Election Day, as much as those of us in Blue states. If the Party cannot even provide them with candidates to put on the ballot, what good is the Party?
It should be noted that this is still quite debatable. Some are keen to argue that with limited funding and resources, it makes sense to focus our efforts where the race is closer, than where the race is a foregone conclusion. Obviously, I do not ascribe to this school of thought. To be sure, none of the mentioned races are likely to be Dem pickups, notwithstanding something extreme. But one of the recent stumbling blocks within the Democratic Party has been the perception of its supposed priorities. To stray away from the idea that every race, no matter how trivial, should have a Dem candidate, does not just deviate from most of the values that ostensibly define the Democratic Party, it deviates from a common sense appraisal of how to engage politically in a two-party-dominated system.
Besides, for all the talk of how it is better to focus only on the races Dems have a chance of winning; how much has that paid off lately? Reviving the 50 State Strategy, and activist programs along the same vein, not only reflect a return to the grassroots activism that energizes many base Dems, but it signals a change in the trajectory of the Party, that is sorely needed.
Therefore, I want to use these diaries as a running dialogue on which of these GOP-held Senate seats do not yet have any Democratic challengers. I know that most of these seats should have a Dem challenger by the filing deadlines, but I think how much interest Dems show in these longshot races, and how competitive they are trying to be, could be a long-term barometer of how well the Democratic Party is engaging its supporters, not just the big financial backers, and not just the ones in the Liberal stronghold states.
Below is the list of GOP-held Senate seats currently without at least one Democratic challenger, based on Wikipedia’s list. If you find this data is not completely accurate, please let me know in the comments.
1. Alaska
Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski, running (appointed 2002, first elected 2004)
2012: Obama 41%, Romney 55%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Begich (D) lost to Sullivan (R) 46%-48%.
Murkowski’s last re-election is rather notable: she was defeated in the Republican primary, but then ran as a write-in in the General and won. Considering she has been elected twice now, and with Alaska’s decidedly-red tilt, her re-election is all-but assured. On the other hand, until Mark Begich’s narrow defeat in 2014, Alaska was one of the states that showed a recent willingness to elect Senators of both parties, making a Dem win here at least plausible. Although Begich would be a solid choice given his competitive 2014 loss, a 2016 run currently looks "unlikely.”
Filing Deadline: Jan 29, 2016
2. Georgia
Incumbent: Johnny Isakson, running (first elected 2004)
2012: Obama 45%, Romney 53%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Nunn (D) lost to Perdue (R) 45%-53%
Considering its status as one of the Deep-South states, Georgia actually has a considerable lineup of solid Democratic challengers, including former Senator Michelle Nunn, 2014 Gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter, and former US Rep John Barrow.
Here’s what DKE has to say:
Last cycle, Democrats made a heroic effort to capture an open Senate seat in Georgia but came up woefully short. Georgia's trending the right way, and presidential-year turnout will assuredly be better, but beating an incumbent would be incredibly hard—particularly since Democrats haven't even landed a candidate yet. Isakson, age 70, recently revealed that he was diagnosed with Parkinson's in 2013 but says he will seek re-election. If he were to change his mind, then we'd revisit.
Filing Deadline: Jan 1, 2016
3. Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Crapo, running (first elected 1998)
2012: Obama 33%, Romney 65%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Mitchell (D) lost to Risch (R) 35%-65%
As the Republican Incumbent and twice won re-election, Crapo is probably the safest bet in the bunch. Still, someone might consider seeing what they can do in a Presidential year. Knowing he was running as a longshot, Nel Mitchell ran a similar campaign in 2014; perhaps he could be persuaded to run again in 2016.
Filing Deadline: Feb 5, 2016
4. Kansas
Incumbent: Jerry Moran, running (first elected 2010)
2012: Obama 38%, Romney 60%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Orman (Ind) lost to Roberts (R) 43%-53%
Kansas Democrats claim to be recruiting candidates for all the federal races up in 2016, but seem to be having a tough time of it.
Filing Deadline: March 1, 2016
5. Kentucky
Incumbent: Rand Paul, running (first elected 2010)
2012: Obama 38%, Romney 60%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Grimes (D) lost to McConnell (R) 41%-46%
With the controversy over Paul running for President and Senator simultaneously, there is room for a challenger to attack his perceived misguided priorities. Nevertheless, it would be a tough race for a Democratic challenger. Outgoing Gov. Steve Beshear offers a tantalizing choice, as he remains relatively popular in an otherwise-red state.
Filing Deadline: Jan 26, 2016
6. Louisiana
Incumbent: David Vitter, unclear (first elected 2004)
2012: Obama 41%, Romney 58%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Landrieu (D) lost to Cassidy (R) in runoff 44%-56%
As anyone who’s been following Louisiana’s gubernatorial race this year can imagine, this will largely hinge on how well Vitter does. If he loses his bid for the governor’s mansion, one can’t help but imagine the smell of blood in the water attracting some big names into the Senate race. We will probably have a better idea once the Gov race shakes out.
Filing Deadline: Dec 4, 2015
7. North Dakota
Incumbent: John Hoeven, running (first elected 2010)
2012: Obama 39%, Romney 58%
Last Senate Race: 2012, Heitkamp (D) defeated Berg (R) 50.5%-49.5%
North Dakota has historically been a tough state for Dems. Still, as Heidi Heitkamp showed in 2012, a strong Presidential-year showing could help a Dem candidate make it competitive.
Filing Deadline: May 2, 2016
8. Oklahoma
Incumbent: James Lankford, running (first elected 2014)
2012: Obama 33%, Romney 67%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Johnson (D) lost to Lankford (R) 29%-68% (special), Silverstein (D) lost to Inhofe (R) 29%-68%
Lankford won the special election in 2014 to replace Tom Coburn, beating out Dem candidate Constance Johnson. 2016 may end up being a re-match.
Filing Deadline: Dec 9, 2015
9. South Carolina
Incumbent: Tim Scott, running (appointed 2013, first elected 2014)
2012: Obama 44%, Romney 55%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Dickerson (D) lost to Scott (R) 37%-61% (special), Hutto (D) lost to Graham (R) 38%-55%
Even though he has only won one special election, currently, it does not look like Scott is likely to face much opposition, especially considering the filing deadline is this upcoming Monday.
Filing Deadline: Nov 16, 2015
10. South Dakota
Incumbent: John Thune, running (first elected 2004)
2012: Obama 40%, Romney 58%
Last Senate Race: 2014, Weiland (D) lost to Rounds (R) 30%-50%
For anyone who thinks a Senate seat would never go uncontested, Thune ran unopposed by a Dem in 2010. While reclaiming this seat for Democrats is a long shot by any means, it is still a Presidential year, and Dems need to at least capitalize on that. With the control of the Senate likely on the line in 2016, leaving any GOP-held Senate seat uncontested would send a clear and unfortunate message to Democratic voters.
Filing Deadline: Mar 29, 2016
11. Utah
Incumbent: Mike Lee, running (first elected 2010)
2012: Obama 25%, Romney 73%
Last Senate Race: 2012, Howell (D) lost to Hatch (R) 30%-66%
While there is a lot of speculation that Lee will face some opposition in the Republican primary, there has been much less on the Democratic side. Hopefully that changes.
Filing Deadline: Feb 5, 2016
Anyways, these are mostly my own thoughts. If anyone has any thoughts or corrections to contribute, please let me know in the comments.