Leading Off:
● Voting Rights: In an absolutely revolting move, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin rescinded an executive order issued by his Democratic predecessor, Steve Beshear, that would have eased the way for up to 180,000 ex-felons to regain their voting rights. Bevin claimed during his gubernatorial campaign earlier this year that he supported the idea in principle, but now he's falling back on the absurd dodge that any change "must be addressed through the legislature"—which is very unlikely to ever happen with Republicans in charge of the state Senate.
Before Beshear's order, Kentuckians convicted of felonies had to apply to the governor's office individually and seek to have their rights restored on a case-by-case basis. Beshear's move greatly simplified the process and merely required those affected to fill out a form, which would restore their rights automatically. This distressing vignette from the Courier-Journal illustrates just how cruel Bevin's rescission is:
Mantell Stevens, who was convicted of possession of a controlled substance about 15 years ago, sounded shocked Tuesday after Bevin's announcement. Stevens said he was close to completing his application and was disappointed and upset by the news.
"The only thing I needed to do was get it notarized," he said. "It's really weird because I'm literally sitting here looking at the envelope. It's stamped."
Stevens said he is working two jobs and had difficulty obtaining the new application after Beshear's order. He said he had already taken the paperwork to a notary at the bank. However, the line was long, and he decided to return a couple of days later. "It's like a double-whammy."
Outrageous. Making matters worse, Kentucky is one of just three states, along with Iowa and Florida, that permanently denies voting rights to all ex-felons, which is why it has the second-worst rate of black disenfranchisement in the nation at 22 percent. The worst, 23 percent, belongs to Florida, but many other states put up barriers to the restoration of voting rights, and the highest rates of black disenfranchisement unsurprisingly are found throughout the South.
There's just no justification for this, and barring former felons from voting only makes the post-release reintegration process that much more difficult. There was simply no justification for Bevin to undo what Beshear did except outright malice, but when the Republican Party wonders why it can't ever make any inroads among minorities, it's given itself yet another perfect example.
Gubernatorial:
● IN-Gov, MT-Gov: There's often a lot of turnover among lieutenant governors: It's almost always a crummy job with few real responsibilities, so it's seldom surprising to see one move on. For instance, Montana Lt. Gov. Angela McLean is stepping down at the end of this year to take a different government job, on account of a rocky relationship with Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. It's less-than-ideal timing, as Bullock now has to seek a new running-mate as he heads into an election year, but the differences seem to be personal rather than political.
But that may not be the case in Indiana, where Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann is looking to part ways with Republican Gov. Mike Pence and become president of a local college. Some are speculating Ellspermann's is leaving because of a rift with Pence over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act debacle that made Indiana a target of nationwide derision—and a threatened boycott—earlier this year. The chief proponent of this theory appears to be former Angie's List CEO Bill Oesterle, a one-time Pence backer who grew furious over the governor's handling of RFRA, though a Pence spokesman denied that RFRA had anything to do with it.
However, in public remarks back in September, Ellspermann signaled her support for a proposed expansion of the state's civil rights law that would protect LGBT citizens, saying Hoosiers "want to be assured 100 percent that there is no further discrimination" and adding, "My opinion is that we should get that fixed, whatever that looks like." Pence, however, has not come out one way or the other yet, despite having had months to do so. (He says he'll offer "guidance" to lawmakers once the next legislative session begins in January.)
But polling has consistently found strong support for the new law, even in conservative Indiana, so Pence would risk seriously complicating his re-election plans if he opposes it. Indeed, Pence had already made his road to a second term much rockier thanks to the RFRA disaster, and his foot-dragging now probably isn't helping matters. We'll never know for sure, but it may well be that Ellspermann wasn't interested in coming along for this particular ride.
House:
● LA-03, -04: We have some more action in the races to succeed GOP Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming, both of whom are running for Senate. On the Republican side, Lafayette School Board member Erick Knezek is the first to enter the contest in Boustany's 3rd, while state Reps. Stuart Bishop and Brett Geymann have announced they are publicly considering, and both also say they think businessman Greg Ellison might run. However, everyone is waiting to see what Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who unsuccessfully ran for governor earlier this year, decides to do. Angelle, who has promised a decision in January, might run for Senate, but he'd be the heavy favorite if he sets his sites a bit lower and goes for the House instead.
Democrats have no shot here (Romney beat Obama 66-32), but thanks to Louisiana's jungle primary system, they can still affect the outcome. That's because if Democrats unite behind a single candidate, whoever that is could survive until the runoff, when he or she would likely be turned into tomato paste by whichever Republican makes it to the second round. But if not, the runoff could instead feature two Republicans. With that in mind, keep an eye on outgoing state Rep. Stephen Ortego, who just lost his bid for re-election last month but isn't ruling out a run for Congress.
Meanwhile, in the 4th, state Reps. Mike Johnson and Jim Morris are looking at bids, while Gannett Louisiana mentions Greater Bossier Economic Development Foundation President Rocky Rockett as another possibility. The outlook for Democrats is only slightly less hopeless here (the district went for Romney 59-40), but nevertheless, there's some interest. State Reps. Patrick Jefferson and Cedric Glover (who is also a former mayor of Shreveport) aren't saying no. Neither is Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, though like Angelle, he, too, is weighing a Senate bid.
● NY-01: Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst continues to earn support from New York's congressional delegation in her bid for the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District. The latest to endorse her is Rep. Paul Tonko, who represents a seat in the Albany area; previously, she'd earned the backing of several Long Island and New York City members, including Steve Israel, Joe Crowley, Kathleen Rice, and Carolyn Maloney. So far, the only New York congressman to get behind venture capitalist Dave Calone, Throne-Holst's primary opponent, is Gregory Meeks of Queens. Throne-Holst and Calone are vying for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin.
● NY-22: A new Democratic name has emerged in the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Richard Hanna: Broome County Legislator Kim Myers, who happens to be the daughter of Dick Stack, the founder of Dick's Sporting Goods. It's not clear what Myers' personal wealth is, but pops is worth $1.5 billion, so if even a tiny fraction of that has trickled down to her, she'd be able to self-fund. Myers has not, however, said anything publicly yet.
But we do have an actual expression of interest from someone on the GOP side who'd previously received Great Mentioner treatment: Syracuse University professor Catherine Bertini, who "confirmed in an email she's being encouraged to run," according to the Press & Sun Bulletin. Three other Republicans have also said they're considering—Oswego County Clerk Michael Backus, state Sen. Joe Griffo, and Oneida County Executive Anthony Picente—but so far, only Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney has actually launched a bid (which she did before Hanna's announcement).
We're also still waiting to hear from ex-state Sen. Ray Meier, who doesn't seem to have said anything publicly, though Hanna himself apparently thinks he has. In rattling off a bunch of potential contenders, Hanna also mentioned former Broome County Legislator George Phillips, who twice ran for the old 22nd District. He got crushed by Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey in 2008 but only lost by about 5 points during the 2010 GOP wave. But less than a quarter of the previous version of the 22nd is now part of the current iteration, and Phillips would struggle for name recognition in a primary.
● VA-05: On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Robert Hurt announced his retirement—a pretty unexpected move, given that he was only first elected in 2010 and is just 46 years old. Congress must really suck pretty hard these days, huh? (Indeed, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch of Hurt, "People who know him say he had come to loathe the political process of Washington.")
In any event, Hurt's 5th District went for Mitt Romney by a 53-46 margin, and it's unlikely to be altered in the redistricting litigation that's currently pending in federal court, so the GOP should keep its hold on this seat without much trouble. One Republican has already jumped in: state Sen. Tom Garrett, who's pitching himself as the "I'll protect you from ISIS" candidate. State Sen. William Stanley also says he's considering, and other options are plentiful. They include state Sen. Jill Holtzman Vogel, Del. Robert Bell, former Del. Clarke Hogan, NASCAR driver Jeff Burton, and conservative journalist Charles Hurt, the congressman's brother.
Don't expect likely redistricting victim Randy Forbes to carpetbag over here, though. Forbes, a Republican, represents the neighboring 4th, which is on the verge of being rendered unwinnably blue by the courts, but his district doesn't have much in common with the 5th, and the two barely share any media markets. As Larry Sabato, who first reported the news of Hurt's retirement, noted, Forbes would "have to fight lots of ambitious local pols who've just cancelled their Christmas plans." That's not going to be a high-percentage play.
Nor are the odds of a Democratic victory. Progressive hero Tom Perriello did manage to wrest this seat from GOP Rep. Virgil Goode in a major upset back in 2008 and lost by only 4 points in the GOP wave two years later, but Democrats haven't had much luck here since. Two, though, had already declared bids even before Hurt's retirement: Albemarle County Supervisor Jane Dittmar and attorney Erick Cage, a former Perriello staffer. If Perriello himself were to seek a comeback, he could conceivably put this seat in play, but President Obama named him a special envoy to Africa in July (to replace, interestingly, Russ Feingold), so he's unlikely to do so.
There is one other intriguing possibility: Virginia Secretary of Agriculture Todd Haymore, who was first appointed by former Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell and now served under Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Back in the 1990s, Haymore worked for former Democratic Rep. L.F. Payne, who preceded Goode in office. Haymore says he's looking at a bid but didn't say which party's nomination he might seek. According to the Washington Post, Haymore has called himself an "independent" in the past, so if he wages a credible third-party bid, he could scramble the outlook here for everyone.
● WY-AL: So far, only one notable Republican, state Rep. Tim Stubson, is running for retiring Rep. Cynthia Lummis' House seat, but that's likely to change. Johnson County Commissioner Bill Novotny, who among other things ran former Nebraska Treasurer Shane Osborn's unsuccessful campaign for Senate last year, says he's considering a bid, and state Sen. Leland Christensen and Wyoming Catholic College President Kevin Roberts are doing so as well. The big name still lurking out there, though, belongs to Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, but given how much she cheesed off Wyoming's GOP establishment with her abortive primary challenge to Sen. Mike Enzi last year, she's not likely to have an easy time of things is she runs for federal office again.
Grab Bag:
● Reapportionment: This week, the Census Bureau released new annual population estimates for the year between July 1, 2014 and July 1, 2015, and there are plenty of notable details. But the most important takeaway is the implications for the next round of congressional reapportionment that will follow the 2020 census. And using these new population totals, Election Data Services has updated their projections as to which states will gain and lose seats in the House:
State |
Current |
Projected |
Gain/Loss |
Texas |
36 |
39 |
+3 |
Florida |
27 |
29 |
+2 |
Arizona |
9 |
10 |
+1 |
Colorado |
7 |
8 |
+1 |
North Carolina |
13 |
14 |
+1 |
Oregon |
5 |
6 |
+1 |
Alabama |
7 |
6 |
-1 |
Illinois |
18 |
17 |
-1 |
Michigan |
14 |
13 |
-1 |
Minnesota |
8 |
7 |
-1 |
New York |
27 |
26 |
-1 |
Ohio |
16 |
15 |
-1 |
Pennsylvania |
18 |
17 |
-1 |
Rhode Island |
2 |
1 |
-1 |
West Virginia |
3 |
2 |
-1 |
There are only minor changes from EDS's projections last year, when the firm predicted (albeit with less confidence) that California and Virginia would both gain seats. This time, interestingly, EDS says that whether you look at the longer-term from 2010 to 2015, or whether you use a shorter-term trend such as from 2013 to 2015 or just 2014 to 2015, all of their projections now come out the same way—something that wasn't true a year ago.
Incidentally, if these forecasts hold, the net effect on the Electoral College would be quite small: States that Barack Obama carried in 2012 would lose three electoral votes, while states he lost would gain three. However, two major swing states would see their fortunes continue to diverge, with Ohio losing yet another electoral vote and Florida gaining two.
EDS's 2014 estimates were also similar to a study from an outfit affiliated with the University of North Carolina called Carolina Demography, which Daily Kos Elections' David Beard explored in-depth in an earlier post. Carolina Demography has not yet updated their analysis to incorporate the new Census data, but their previous findings saw Texas only gaining two rather than three seats, with Alabama holding steady instead of losing a seat.
The bigger question is now that we're halfway to the next Census, just how accurate are these projections likely to be? Digging back into EDS's archives, we can compare their mid-point predictions from 2005 to the actual reapportionment that took place in 2010:
State |
2005 |
2010 |
Difference |
Arizona |
+1 |
+1 |
0 |
Florida |
+1 |
+2 |
+1 |
Georgia |
|
+1 |
+1 |
Illinois |
|
-1 |
-1 |
Iowa |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
Louisiana |
|
-1 |
-1 |
Massachusetts |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
Michigan |
|
-1 |
-1 |
Missouri |
|
-1 |
-1 |
Nevada |
+1 |
+1 |
0 |
New Jersey |
|
-1 |
-1 |
New York |
-1 |
-2 |
-1 |
Ohio |
-1 |
-2 |
-1 |
Pennsylvania |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
South Carolina |
|
+1 |
+1 |
Texas |
+1 |
+4 |
+3 |
Utah |
+1 |
+1 |
0 |
Washington |
|
+1 |
+1 |
Not so great, but using prior growth to predict future growth is always going to be a challenge. Among other things, there's simply no way to anticipate events like Hurricane Katrina or the Great Recession, which can dramatically alter population trends in unexpected ways. At the same time, though, EDS's projections were all correct in identifying states that would see changes to the size of their congressional delegations, so even with the next Census half a decade away, we can still learn useful things about where reapportionment is likely to wind up.
P.S. EDS did one other interesting thing: In light of the Evenwel case headed to the Supreme Court, which would require that election districts equalize the number of voters rather than the number of people when it comes to redistricting, EDS modeled how reapportionment might look under that sort of regime (using 2015 population numbers rather than 2020 projections). In a great irony, seeing as conservatives are backing the Evenwel plaintiffs, Texas would actually lose a seat based on the 2015 population numbers. This is actually no surprise, since Texas is home to many people who are not eligible to vote, but it does show that what redistricting might giveth, reapportionment stands ready to taketh away.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.