WNYC’s “On The Media” has a great series called the “Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook,” and as part of our ongoing partnership with them, we put together a handy list of rules for interpreting election polls. Listen to the whole episode, or just to my dulcet tones:
But I also wanted to add a few notes on each rule. Here we go:
Ignore national primary polls – they measure nothing. (But state polls matter.) Unlike in general elections, when all states vote on the same day, the primary calendar is sequential; each state’s results often affect the next state’s. The national polls don’t add to your understanding of the race — just look at surveys of the upcoming states.
Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.
Josh Kraushaar:
The prospect of Cruz leading Rubio, Christie, Bush, and Kasich in New Hampshire would be an embarrassment to party leaders, and makes it very difficult for the establishment to unite behind anyone before the delegate-rich March primaries.
Cruz hasn’t spent much time in the state (16 days this year), and his brand of conservatism is a tough sell with a moderate, less-religious GOP electorate. But if the trajectory of the GOP primary doesn’t change in the next month, it’s possible there won’t even be a credible alternative to Trump and Cruz by the time Super Tuesday comes around.
Michelle Hackman:
Clinton’s attack on Trump hints at a larger strategy to pivot away from her appeals to a progressive base this past summer and fall, to a position where she can begin making hercase to general election voters.
Vox’s Andrew Prokop points out several other instances of Clinton’s posturing: her pledge not to tax middle-class families, for example, or her hawkish support of regime change in Syria and other embattled nations.
It is no secret that Clinton would love to run against Trump in a general election, a cause her campaign has attempted to advance by circulating statements saying she feared a Trump nomination was a realistic possibility.
Clinton likely views Trump as the most beatable of the current crop of Republican opponents, for the exact reasons exemplified by this latest exchange.
AP:
Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said Wednesday morning he is moving toward a major shake-up of his struggling campaign, with less than six weeks to go until early voting begins to select party nominees.
Yet by Wednesday evening, he tried to steer away from that message, announcing that all is well in the Carson camp.
In a Wednesday morning interview with the Associated Press at his Maryland home — conducted without the knowledge of his own campaign manager — Carson said "personnel changes" could be coming, suggesting he would consider sidelining his top aides.
"Everything. Everything is on the table," he said of potential changes. "Every single thing is on the table. I'm looking carefully."
Sahil Kapur:
Marco Rubio is dipping in national polls going into the final week of 2015. While the drop is slight, and far from irreversible less than six weeks away from the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, where the first votes will be cast in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination, it is happening at a time when the U.S. senator from Florida needs to be moving in the opposite direction.
Greg Sargent:
President Obama, in an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep, made the preposterously, cockeyedly optimistic prediction that Republican opposition to the global climate deal — and to action on climate change more generally — might fade over time. As crazy as it sounds, he might prove right on this one.
In the interview, Obama acknowledged that the Republican Party “right now” is resistant to the Paris climate deal, but suggested that he’s “confident” that this could fade if progress can be made on his Clean Power Plan, which aims to reduce carbon emissions and will be pivotal to the U.S.’s ability to meet its commitments as part of the deal.
WSJ:
Republican Presidential Primary Polls in Historical Perspective
Political outsiders have led in early polling. But if the past two presidential election cycles are any indication, those who are frontrunners before voting begins aren't necessarily poised to win the nomination. Compare polling averages for GOP presidential candidates in the current cycle with those of the past two elections.