The Census Bureau recently released new data from its annual American Community Survey, which fills the gaps between decennial censuses and asks a lot of questions the standard census doesn’t have room for. One great data set of particular interest to election watchers is the racial and ethnic demographics of the nation’s congressional districts, which offers us information not just about demographic growth (and shrinkage) but can also provide clues about the partisan direction of various regions around the country.
We’ve assembled the latest data in an easy-to-read format on Google Docs. There you’ll find complete racial and ethnic breakdowns for every congressional district according to the ACS’s one-year estimates for 2014. And along the bottom, you’ll see tabs showing estimates for 2013 and 2012 as well, which will give you a sense of how and where things have changed in recent years.
Below we’ve decided to take a look at the largest shifts on the district level among the country’s four biggest racial and ethnic groups: whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. To smooth out the trendlines a little bit, we’re comparing 2014 to 2012, but even in that relatively short timeframe, some of the movement has been dramatic.
| Group |
CD |
Incumbent |
Party |
2012 |
2014 |
Change |
Largest increases
| Whites |
NY-07 |
Nydia Velazquez |
(D) |
27.1 |
30.2 |
3.1 |
| Blacks |
MI-09 |
Sandy Levin |
(D) |
10.9 |
13.1 |
2.2 |
| Asians |
CA-15 |
Eric Swalwell |
(D) |
28.3 |
32.5 |
4.1 |
| Hispanics |
FL-27 |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
(R) |
72.0 |
76.1 |
4.2 |
We’ll get to NY-07 in a moment. In the meantime, in MI-09, we’re likely seeing an influx of African Americans from Detroit moving out to the suburbs. CA-15, which takes in turf south of Oakland, was already one of the most heavily Asian districts in the nation; most of the growth among Asian-Americans there has come from Indians and Filipinos, while the Chinese population has actually shrunk. And in FL-27, which sits in the state’s far southeastern corner and covers part of Miami, has seen a big increase in its already sizable Cuban population.
| Group |
CD |
Incumbent |
Party |
2012 |
2014 |
Change |
Largest decreases
| Whites |
CA-50 |
Duncan Hunter |
(R) |
60.4 |
55.6 |
-4.7 |
| Blacks |
CA-37 |
Karen Bass |
(D) |
25.6 |
21.8 |
-3.8 |
| Asians |
CA-51 |
Juan Vargas |
(D) |
9.0 |
7.5 |
-1.4 |
| Hispanics |
NY-07 |
Nydia Velazquez |
(D) |
43.7 |
40.7 |
-3.0 |
NY-07 is the only district to appear on both lists. Covering parts of three boroughs (Queens, Brooklyn, and Manhattan), it’s very diverse but has been experiencing ongoing gentrification, making it both whiter and less Hispanic at the same time. It’s not just hipsters, though: The Orthodox Jewish parts of Williamsburg are also part of this district, and the Haredi community has a very high birth rate.
We’re also seeing gentrification in another diverse district, CA-37, which is located in the western part of Los Angeles. Meanwhile, CA-50, which is situated outside of San Diego, is undergoing big Hispanic growth at the same time as whites are departing. And the adjacent CA-51 has simply seen a large decrease in overall population, period. In fact, it shrunk the second-most of any district over this two-year period, losing 2.4 percent. It’s possible many residents have moved into the neighboring CA-52, which experienced the third-largest gain during this time, 7.9 percent.
The two biggest increases in total population, though, came in two fast-growing Texas districts on the far outskirts of Houston’s sprawl, TX-10 and TX-22, which saw 8.9 and 8.5 percent growth, respectively. The biggest loser? NY-07, which lost over 19,000 residents, or 2.6 percent of its 2012 total.
