West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin
:
• WV-Gov, Sen: On Sunday, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate in 2018 rather than run for his old job as governor next year. The move comes as a surprise: Manchin was not subtle about his unhappiness in Washington, and he appeared to be gearing up for a gubernatorial bid.
Manchin's decision will comes as welcome news to the DSCC. West Virginia has been growing increasingly Republican in the last few cycles, and it would have been tough for a Democrat without Manchin's personal popularity to hold onto this seat. The Republican state legislature has also been working on a bill that would have prevented a Gov. Manchin from appointing someone to the Senate for the final two years of his term. It only takes a simple majority of each chamber to override a gubernatorial veto, so there was little Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin could have done to stop this from becoming law. Now, assuming Manchin sticks by his plans to run again in 2018, Democrats should have an easier time keeping this Senate seat in the blue column, though nothing is assured this far out.
But without Manchin on the ballot next year, it will be a lot more difficult for Mountain State Democrats to hold the open governor's mansion. State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler created an exploratory committee even before Manchin made his plans clear, and U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin didn't rule anything out earlier this month. Team Blue still has a decent bench here, so there are other politicians who may take a look at this post now that they know they won't need to face Manchin in the primary. But none of them have Manchin's name recognition or popularity, and they'll need to work hard to win in this conservative state.
Three notable Republicans have expressed interest in succeeding the termed-out Tombin. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey quickly released a statement after Manchin made his plans clear, saying that, "West Virginia needs bold leadership to help create new jobs, fight against EPA overreach, and build a strong economy." While Morrisey hasn't announced anything yet, it sounds like he very much wants to be that leader. Rep. David McKinley and state Senate President Bill Cole have also floated their names. It's possible that more Republicans will eye this seat now that they don't need to worry about Manchin. The senator's announcement will definitely reshape next year's gubernatorial contest, and we'll be watching all the developments closely.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: We can add one more name to the wide-open field of Republicans considering Senate bids in Florida: former state Attorney General Bill McCollum, who lost a bitter, bruising primary to Gov. Rick Scott in 2010. McCollum ran for the Senate twice in the now-distant past, falling to Democrat Bill Nelson in 2000 and losing the Republican nomination to Mel Martinez in 2004. He doesn't sound especially interested, and he's 70 years old, but who knows what might happen here.
• IN-Sen: With four Republican members of the House all looking at Senate bids in Indiana, we can glance at their first quarter fundraising numbers to get a sense of how seriously each has been preparing so far. Only Todd Young raised serious money ($410,000), and he also leads the pack in cash-on-hand ($1.1 million). Todd Rokita ($1 million in the bank) and Susan Brooks ($884,000) have similar war chests, but they raised just $96,000 and $182,000 respectively. Bringing up the rear is Marlin Stutzman, a tea party favorite, who took in only $110,000 and has just $424,000 in reserve. The only announced candidate, Republican Eric Holcomb, said he raised $125,000 in the final week of the quarter.
• PA-Sen: As expected, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski made his bid for Senate official on Friday, giving Keystone Democrats an alternative to ex-Rep. Joe Sestak—a guy who, fairly or unfairly, is despised by the party's establishment. But is Pawlowski actually capable of stopping Sestak? His desultory run for governor last year, which he abandoned after failing to poll higher than 6 percent, doesn't suggest he is, but insiders will at least give him a hearing. The DSCC is reportedly trying to recruit Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, but that's an extreme longshot, given that Shapiro is up for re-election this fall.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner has yet another ad out for the GOP primary, and credit where credit is due, it's a lot better than his past offerings. It starts with a shot of Commerce Crossing in Louisville, an area the spot claims Heiner built (which is certainly a bold thing to say). Heiner touts all the companies and jobs that are located in the business park, before transitioning to job creation and generic conservative proclamations. There's no word on the size of the buy, but with Heiner already spending millions ahead of the May 19 race, he's probably putting some dough behind this.
• LA-Gov: Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle currently has the airwaves to himself, and he's dropped a new spot. The ad features Angelle giving a speech in front of a crowd, and you can tell that it's a real speech, not something they just filmed for the commercial: At the very end during his standing ovation, you can clearly see a woman wipe her hands and put down her napkin while the rest of the room applauds.
Angelle speaks in platitudes, calling for people to be "pulling the wagon, and fewer people riding in the wagon," which is either a metaphor for the safety net or a call for the private sector to create more wagon pusher jobs (Billion dollar idea: Uber... but for wagons!). Angelle continues, calling for more people to pay less taxes, cutting red tape, making Louisiana first, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!
• MD-Gov: Relying on some post-election survey data, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman takes a look back at the shocking result in last year's gubernatorial race in Maryland and concludes that Democrat Anthony Brown lost to Republican Larry Hogan not because of a collapse in turnout but because of defections among Democratic voters, especially over taxes. It's an interesting read, but in the end, both can be blamed, because as Mellman acknowledges, Brown also would have done better had turnout been better.
• OR-Gov: Just a few days ago, state Treasurer Ted Wheeler said he hadn't "ruled anything out" with regard to a possible primary challenge to Gov. Kate Brown, a fellow Democrat who was recently elevated to the post after Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned in February. But according to Oregon Capital Insider, Wheeler "told one of our colleagues" that he has "no interest" in pursuing such a bid. That's some rather mysterious wording, and OCI is a brand-new enterprise, so we'll see if that pans out.
House:
• KS-01: Physician Roger Marshall, whom we first took note of as a possible primary challenger to GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp late last year, announced on Friday that he's in. However, Marshall doesn't exactly seem to be hitting the ground running, since the website listed in his FEC filing is not currently operative. Huelskamp ran into unexpected danger last year thanks to his extreme hostility to farm subsidies, leading agribusiness to support his Some Dude challenger, Alan LaPolice, who lost by a relatively close 55-45 margin. LaPolice is also looking at another bid, but that would only help the incumbent, who'd be a better bet to survive with a split field arrayed against him.
Other Races:
• 2016: Jonathan Chait's new piece on how increased partisanship is likely to affect the 2016 calculus is very much worth reading. Chait explores a new, unpublished paper by political scientists Alan Abramowitz and Steven Webster that shows that voters' perceptions of the gulf between the two parties has skyrocketed in recent decades, a phenomenon that's manifested in the correlation between the vote for president and Congress. That correlation has also spiked: In the Senate, for instance, it's now 27 times stronger than it was in the 1970s.
Chait's of the opinion that this increased rigidity benefits Democrats simply because the Democratic share of the electorate is growing, and the number of persuadable voters in the middle has vanished almost to nothing. It's a theme he explores further here, another good read. As Chait puts it, "Voters who are fundamentally attached to one party or the other are not going to abandon their team merely because their party has held onto office for too many terms, or because the other party's president is presiding over a nice recovery." Hillary Clinton certainly hopes that's true.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: The Wall Street Journal has unveiled a bunch of nice interactive maps combining Census data with 2012 presidential results. The results won't surprise anyone who spends a lot of time poring over demographic data, but the features are nice. You can strip away the counties that either Obama or Romney won, giving you a closer look at the characteristics (like racial composition, median age, education levels, and household income) of red and blue America. And if you need a reminder how geographically concentrated the Obama coalition is, this'll give you that.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.
