Republican Sen. John McCain will face a credible Democratic foe next year
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• AZ-Sen: Tuesday morning brought some exciting news for Arizona Democrats, as Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced she'd run against veteran GOP Sen. John McCain, who is seeking a sixth term in the Senate. It's a welcome but unexpected development: Kirkpatrick, who holds a vast, GOP-leaning seat in the state's northeast, had long been on the DSCC's wish list but had never spoken publicly about her interest in taking on McCain. Her entry instantly makes this race competitive, as a recent PPP poll showed McCain with a horrific 36-51 statewide approval rating and just a 42-36 lead on Kirkpatrick.
Those are very weak numbers for an incumbent, particularly in a red state like Arizona, but McCain actually faces a double-barreled threat. Hardcore conservatives have long despised McCain for his many apostasies—he's always preferred hobnobbing with the Sunday talk show set rather than party with the tea partiers—and he's already earned a primary challenge from state Sen. Kelli Ward. That same PPP poll found McCain up just 44-31 on the unknown Ward among Republican voters, another terribly weak result.
Ward's not a strong candidate, though (she's a "chemtrail" conspiracy theorist who's been spurned by anti-establishment groups like the Club for Growth), and McCain handily dispatched a similarly unimpressive primary opponent back in 2010. But Ward could keep McCain occupied, draining his coffers and dragging him to the right, as Kirkpatrick travels the state and raises money. And if a better option emerges in the GOP primary for the purity brigades, it's possible McCain might not even earn his party's nomination.
Democrats, though, can only hope for so much, and they're already quite fortunate that they've landed someone like Kirkpatrick, who has experience winning on difficult turf. However, her candidacy comes at a price. Kirkpatrick's 1st Congressional District went for Mitt Romney by a 50-48 margin, making it one of just five red seats held by a Democrat anywhere in the country, and odds are it will now return to the Republicans.
That's not just because it's a tough district for a Democrat to win: A case pending before the Supreme Court could invalidate Arizona's entire congressional map if the justices decide that the state's independent redistricting commission runs afoul of the constitution. If that happens, the GOP-dominated legislature would get to redraw the lines, and they'd make Kirkpatrick's district even more inhospitable for Democrats.
So the Senate race actually offers Kirkpatrick something of an escape hatch. A statewide win won't be easy, but when you combine McCain's unpopularity, the possibility that he gets dinged up in his primary, and the fact that Democrats nationwide should benefit from increased presidential turnout, that gives Kirkpatrick a real chance. (In 2012, Team Blue fell just 3 points short in Arizona's Senate race.) What's more, it improves Democratic odds of retaking the Senate, where the party needs a minimum of four seats to return to the majority.
There's also the outside chance that if Hillary Clinton tries expanding the presidential playing field, she could look to Arizona as a "reach" state. Kirkpatrick and Senate Democrats would love to see that, but whether or not that happens, we've got a real race on our hands. And for once, my friends, there's no way even the most sycophantic Beltway blowhard can spin this as good news for John McCain.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: When Democratic groups meddle in a Republican primary, no one would dispute that it means the candidate they're "helping"—like, say, Missouri's Todd Akin—is the one they would most prefer to face in the general election. Therefore, of course, the reverse must be true as well, so you can bet that the Club for Growth's new ad bashing Rep. Patrick Murphy and praising his potential rival for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Rep. Alan Grayson, is aimed squarely at boosting the guy the Club thinks would be easiest to beat in 2016—Grayson, naturally.
The spot focuses on an obscure issue dear to the Club: the Export-Import Bank, an entity that provides subsidized loans to American exporters like Boeing. It's become a conservative bête noire—this article offers a good explanation of why—but many liberals loathe it, too. (Barack Obama once called it "a fund for corporate welfare," though his administration now backs the bank, which is up for congressional reauthorization.)
In the ad, the narrator commends Grayson for "oppos[ing] the Export-Import Bank, which spends billions of taxpayer dollars on a handful of giant corporations," while attacking Murphy for supporting Ex-Im and wanting "to funnel billions more to corporate fat cats." The size of the buy is $250,000, which means that not too many people will see this spot given the great expense of advertising across Florida's many media markets. But it's a sign that conservatives are ready to ratfuck the Democratic primary, and if the volatile Grayson does enter the race, they're likely to spend plenty more to assist him in winning his party's nomination.
• NV-Sen, 01: After spending the last two months publicly considering a Senate campaign, Democratic Rep. Dina Titus announced on Tuesday that she won't go for it. Retiring Sen. Harry Reid and the DSCC have been circling the wagons for ex-state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, and Titus was probably the only potential candidate who could have given Masto any trouble in the primary. If Titus had left the House, several Democrats would have eyed her safely blue 1st District (including some candidates currently seeking the neighboring 4th), but her re-election announcement means we won't see much action here.
• PA-Sen, AG: Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro never seemed particularly interested in running for Senate, so it's no surprise that he's finally decided against making a bid next year. Both local and national Democrats had sought Shapiro out as an alternative to ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, whose lone-wolf style fills them with dread. But Shapiro was faced with the awkward proposition of either giving up his spot on the county commission or running for re-election this fall, then immediately turning around to wage difficult fights against both Sestak and then, were he to prevail in the primary, against GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
Instead, Shapiro could set his sights on becoming state attorney general. That post is also up next year, but it would be a much easier target, since it's likely to be an open seat. (The current office-holder, Democrat Kathleen Kane, is the target of a criminal investigation and is almost certainly finished electorally.) Notably, Shapiro declined to comment about a possible AG run. Whether he seeks the job or not, though, he's just 41, so we're sure to hear about him again in the future.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Right now, state Rep. John Bel Edwards is the only notable Democratic running in the Oct. 24 jungle primary, but that may be about to change. Tony Clayton, an attorney who is well known in the Baton Rouge-area for prosecuting serial killer Derrick Todd Lee, tells LaPolitics Weekly that he's interested in joining the contest. Like Edwards, Clayton is a self-described conservative Democrat. However, while Edwards is white, Clayton is black, and he could have an easier time appealing to African American voters if he gets in (Clayton also used to chair the board of supervisors for the historically black Southern University system).
Neither Edwards nor Clayton would have a great shot prevailing in November in this increasingly red state, but a Clayton campaign could have a major effect on the race. Polls consistently show Republican Sen. David Vitter and Edwards taking the top-two spots in the jungle primary and advancing to the Nov. 21 runoff, with fellow Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne a bit further behind (and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle stuck in the single digits). As long as Edwards has the Democratic field to himself, it's going to be tough for Dardenne or Angelle to secure enough support to sneak into the runoff. But if Clayton splits the blue side, it could give either of them a much better shot to advance.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore is also thinking about running as a left-leaning independent, and he could further help the non-Vitter Republicans by dividing the Democratic vote. While Vitter would be heavily favored in a runoff with a Democrat, a duel with Dardenne or Angelle could be much more competitive. The filing deadline isn't until Sept. 10, so it could be a while before things fully develop here.
• WA-Gov, Sen: What's with the sudden spike of interest in Washington's gubernatorial election? Republican pollster Gravis Marketing followed hot on the heels of Public Policy Polling in investigating the state of play in the Evergreen State. They poll the same four contenders against Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee; they have similar results for the two Republicans who are actually likely to run, Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (trailing Inslee 45-35, compared with 46-34 per PPP) and state Sen. Andy Hill (trailing Inslee 44-36, compared with 45-31 per PPP). They find Rep. Dave "Reichart" [sic] faring a little better (trailing Inslee 43-39, compared with 45-34 per PPP), and, surprisingly, ex-Attorney General Rob McKenna leading Inslee by a significant margin in the event of a rematch (leading Inslee 48-37, compared with a 43-38 Inslee advantage over according to PPP).
What's really on Gravis's mind, though, is a proposed initiative to turn Washington into a right-to-work state (or, as their writeup describes it, "liberate its compulsory union membership laws" -- the actual poll question doesn't use that cartoonish phrasing, though it's still pretty slanted). With that leading question in mind, they find 45-33 support for the measure. Finally, they ask about the Senate race, and, similar to PPP, find Patty Murray easily beating both Reichert (52-42) and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (51-40).
• WV-Gov: Billionaire Jim Justice's decision to run gives Democrats a well-connected candidate capable of spending massive amounts of money, but he comes with some liabilities. The National Journal reports that the GOP is already zeroing on Justice's history of late-fines and safety violations at his coal mines. The GOP is even accusing Justice of "flat-out not paying environmental fines," which isn't a line-of-attack you usually see from West Virginia Republicans.
By contrast, Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler, who has filed pre-candidacy papers but hasn't declared yet, has a good relationship with the United Mine Workers of America and he sounds ready to portray Justice as "Republican-lite." U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, another potential Democratic candidate, is currently prosecuting the owner of the Upper Big Branch, where a 2010 accident claimed the lives of 29 people. While no Democrat is going to get very far in the Mountain State if they're seen as anti-coal, Kessler or Goodwin can draw some blood if they frame the primary as a battle between someone who puts miners in danger and someone who fights for their safety.
On the GOP side, state Senate President Bill Cole filed pre-candidacy papers on May 7 and promised a decision in the following two weeks. But Cole is pushing back his timetable, saying he'll make up his mind within a few weeks. Cole says he's talking to potential primary rivals Rep. David McKinley and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, but there's no hint that he's persuading them to sit next year's campaign out. Indeed, McKinley claims he's seen good poll numbers (he declined to share them) and said that while he'd like to avoid a contested primary, he's "not intimidated by the other two candidates."
House:
• AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's Senate campaign opens up her northern Arizona seat, and both parties will likely target it if it keeps its current form. But as we've noted above (see our AZ-Sen item), the U.S. Supreme Court may allow the GOP to make this seat a much darker shade of red. However, Democratic state Sen. Catherine Miranda says she's considering a run. Miranda lives outside the current 1st District and very little of her legislative seat is here, though other Democrats will be reluctant to get in if AZ-01 gets redder.
Things are likely to get crowded on the GOP side regardless of what the Supreme Court does. Rancher Gary Kiehne was already running against Kirkpatrick, though his 2014 campaign left plenty of Republicans with a bad taste in their mouths. Former state House Speaker and 2014 nominee Andy Tobin is considering another try, though like many politicians he's keeping an eye out for redistricting.
Roll Call's Emily Cahn also tells us that state House Speaker David Gowan is privately considering, and the Tucson Sentinel recently reported that he'll draw a seat for himself if he gets the chance. Some other potential GOP candidates include:
• Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu
• Flagstaff City Councilman Jeff Oravits
• State Senate Majority Whip Steve Pierce
• Arizona Residential Utility Consumer Office Director David Tenney
Babeu ran for the neighboring 4th District in 2012, but he dropped out after reports leaked that he dated an undocumented immigrant and threatened to deport him to keep the relationship a secret. But Babeu has
expressed interest in another campaign, and enough time may have passed for him to be a viable candidate again.
• CO-06: Democrats are planning to target Republican Rep. Mike Coffman's swingy suburban Denver seat whether or not he runs for Senate, and they think they've found their candidate. Alexis Levinson at Roll Call reports that state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll, who has met with the DCCC, has emerged as Team Blue's top choice here. Unlike the past two Denver-based nominees, Carroll hails from the area, and she has a reputation as a strong fundraiser.
However, the GOP is likely to go after her voting record: Carroll opposed a measure aimed at toughening sanctions on online child predators and voted for a tax increase. 2012 nominee Joe Miklosi also voted against the former bill, and Coffman didn't hesitate to attack him over it. If Carroll declines to get in, local Democrats think that Centennial Councilor Rebecca McClellan will run instead.
• FL-06: Another Republican is flirting with a run for this safely red open seat. This time it's former St. Johns County Commissioner Mark Miner, who says he'll decide in a couple of months, though he says he'll stay out "[i]f the right person surfaces." If Miner gets in, that could be bad news for outgoing Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford, who is gearing up for a bid. Rutherford is best-known in the Jacksonville media market, which only makes up one-third of the district. Rutherford would love it if he faces several Orlando-area candidates and gets the chance to consolidate the Jacksonville-area vote, but a credible St. Johns County opponent would complicate things.
• FL-18: Three Republicans are already running and a host of others are considering, and we have a new name for the maybe column. Brian Mast, who lost both his legs serving in Afghanistan, is reportedly mulling a bid, and the Palm Beach Post says he'll make a decision after his job at the Department of Homeland Security ends early next month. While Mast has never held office, he's been an active speaker at local Republican events, so he might have the connections he'll need to win here. Romney won this open seat 52-48, and both parties are hosting competitive primaries here.
• IN-02: Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski recently passed on a Senate run, but she may have to fight her way through a competitive primary after all. Brian Howey reports that state Sen. Carlin Yoder is interested in challenging her for renomination, though Yoder has yet to say anything publicly.
Walorski used to be a prominent social conservative, but she's become much more establishment-flavored since she arrived in the House in 2013, and she even stressed bipartisanship during her last campaign. By contrast, Yoder serves as district director to neighboring congressman and Senate candidate Marlin Stutzman, who hails from the tea party wing of the party. Yoder's entire legislative district is located in the 2nd though, so he'll have some initial name-recognition if he gets in. Romney won this northern Indiana seat 56-42 but Democrats came very close to winning it in 2012, so Team Blue may make a play here.
• MO-02: A few weeks ago, Democratic state Rep. Bill Otto quietly opened up a campaign account for a run against GOP incumbent Ann Wagner, and on Tuesday he announced he was in. Otto has prevailed twice in a light-red seat, but it's not going to be easy for him to beat Wagner, a former RNC co-chair who is a talented fundraiser.
This suburban St. Louis seat is quite red, but not impossibly so. Obama passed over Missouri in 2012 and Romney ran up the score in the Show Me State, winning the 2nd 57-41. However, when Obama targeted Missouri four years before, he held McCain to a more modest 53-46 victory here. If Democrats go after the state's 10 electoral votes again they could give Otto a boost, but this seat is still going to be tough to flip. When Democratic state Treasurer Clint Zweifel was winning re-election statewide in 2012 50-45, he still lost the 2nd 49-48, and it's unlikely Team Blue is going to be carrying Missouri by a 5-point margin next year.
• NH-01: Following a solid week of calls from prominent fellow Republicans to resign from the House, Rep. Frank Guinta isn't just saying nuts to that—his chief of staff has declared that Guinta will run for re-election! When the news of Guinta's FEC fine for campaign finance skullduggery first broke, the congressman did indicate that he planned to seek another term, but that's the kind of thing you almost automatically say when scandal engulfs you. The fact that he's re-upped will delight New Hampshire Democrats.
It's also frustrating the GOP immensely. Even though Sen. Kelly Ayotte and several other top figures have demanded that Guinta go, Republicans are far from united in that sentiment, and some conservatives are even pissed at the establishment types for insisting on Guinta's ouster.
Meanwhile, the state party has refused to take sides, but insiders are talking up various potential candidates who could seek to expunge Guinta in a primary should he insist on his present course of action. Possibilities include two of Guinta's former primary opponents, businessman Dan Innis (who ran against him in 2014) and defense industry executive Rich Ashooh (2010), as well as former Deputy House Speaker Pam Tucker, state Rep. John Burt, and conservative activist Bob Burns. However, some of them, like Burns and Innis, only seem interested in running if Guinta doesn't, and right now, that's not happening.
P.S. Here's an interesting bit of trivia from Smart Politics: New Hampshire hasn't held a special election for the U.S. House since January of 1932, when Democrats picked up the 1st District from the GOP. That was a particularly crazy time: Republicans lost over 50 seats in the 1930 general election (the first national vote held after the Great Depression began) but clung to a narrow majority. However, over a dozen representatives-elect died before Congress could be seated, which back then didn't happen until 1932, allowing Democrats to take over the chamber thanks to a series of special elections. New Hampshire's streak is the fourth-longest in the nation, after Idaho (which has never held a special election), Delaware (1900), and Utah (1930).
• WA-01: Washington's 1st District is swingy enough that it could present some trouble for Dems as an open seat, or in a Republican wave year. 2016 looks like it will be neither of those things, so it's a little surprising that a credible Republican is giving up her state House seat to take a shot at Democratic incumbent Suzan DelBene. Courtesy of Greg Giroux, it turns out that Elizabeth Scott filed candidacy papers with the FEC, though she hasn't announced anything official yet.
Scott is one of the more visible members of the state GOP's right flank, but her long odds in WA-01 are an example of how "rising star" Republicans in Washington who live west of the Cascades don't really have anything to rise to, beyond their legislative districts. Scott's run will free up one of the state House seats in LD-39 in the rural parts of Snohomish County, which, despite its reputation as a weird tea party stronghold, is actually a pretty swingy district itself, at least by the presidential numbers (going 49-48 Obama in 2012). The gubernatorial numbers in the 39th are a better indicator, though: Jay Inslee lost here 45-55.
Other Races:
• Columbus Mayor: Democratic City Council President Andrew Ginther easily took enough support in the May 5 primary to advance to the November general, but he's only just learned the identity of his opponent. Democratic Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott outpolled Republican Terry Boyd by only 138 votes, but the GOP has decided not to seek a recount. Ginther has decisively outraised Scott and he has collected far more influential endorsements, with the local AFL-CIO branch backing him last week. While Scott will be able to give Ginther a tougher contest than the underfunded Boyd would have, this is still very much Ginther's race to lose.
• Nashville Mayor: Filing closed Thursday for the Aug. 6 non-partisan primary for this open seat. Seven candidates have filed to run:
• Councilor Megan Barry
• Attorney Charles Robert Bone
• Former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox
• Real estate executive Bill Freeman
• Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry
• Charter school founder Jeremy Kane
• Businesswoman Linda Eskind Rebrovick
There's no obvious frontrunner at this early point in the race. However, as the only African American in the contest, Gentry (who took a close third place in 2007) has a good chance to secure enough support to advance to the runoff. Fox and Freeman are both personally wealthy, and Fox's
ties to GOP groups could help him consolidate enough support from the city's conservative minority to advance. Barry, Bone, and Rebrovick also have
some money to burn, while Kane and Gentry have so far been relying exclusively on donations.
• San Antonio Mayor: It's anyone's guess how the June 13 runoff between interim Mayor Ivy Taylor and ex-state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte will go. However, Taylor got a small boost on Friday when she earned the endorsement of former Bexar County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson, who took 10 percent in the May 9 primary. So far former state Rep. Mike Villarreal, who took 26 percent, has not yet chosen a candidate.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.
