Echoes of 2000: Bill Bradley draws big crowds; Camp Gore says, "No Worries"

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Monday June 01, 2015 · 12:54 PM PDT

2015/06/01 · 12:54

I don't typically do "response diaries" (or, if you like, any recent diaries at all!); however, this one is WAY too much of a hanging curveball.

Please note for the record that I am very supportive of Bernie Sanders running and strongly believe he will be a wonderful advocate for liberal positions throughout the campaign. This is simply in response to those who feel Senator Sanders has even the smallest chance of winning the Democratic Nomination in 2016. Or ever, for that matter.

Cue the wavy lines on your television set as we head back in time 16 years to...1999. (And oh, yes, we're going to party like it!)

The 2000 Democratic primary showcased one of the stronger candidates in recent memory, a sitting Vice President by the name of Al Gore. He was challenged from the left by a recently retired Senator from New Jersey, Bill Bradley.

Bradley spent much time in Iowa and appeared to have the early excitement and "momentum" going into the fall of 1999. Gore led Bradley in Iowa 61%-19% in October, with the polling lead cut to 48-27 by December. Gore suffered through the "inevitability" crisis of the summer, retooling his campaign and moving his campaign headquarters to Nashville. Closer to the roots and all that. As Bradley was a bit stronger in New Hampshire than Iowa, an Iowa win could propel him to an IA-NH sweep, and on to the nomination.

(For those new to politics, "momentum" is political reporter speak for "I talked to a few folks and attended some rallies...if I want my expenses to be paid, I better write something about an actual race.")

http://www.nytimes.com/...

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/...

When it was all said and done, Gore went on to win Iowa handily, New Hampshire by a slim margin, then wrapped it up on Super Tuesday. Bradley failed to win a single state. Bradley DID however, get 20% of the vote nationally, with some higher percentages in some early states.

http://en.wikipedia.org/...

What does this tell us? Essentially, that 2016 is a rerun of 2000, not 2008. Sanders will run a solid campaign and likely capture around 20% of the vote, perhaps a touch higher in Iowa and New Hampshire. Any liberal challenger worth their salt can get 20% in the primary. The other 65-70% will go to the winner, in this case Hillary Clinton.

So, sorry to disappoint, but Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee in 2016, barring illness. (I would say scandal, but c'mon. I think we'd know by now.)

If you DO want a fun prop bet: Lyndon LaRouche was technically the 3rd entry in the 2000 Democratic race. Will Martin O'Malley get more or fewer votes nationally in 2016? For fairness purposes, we will use vote percentage: 1.91% I'm taking the under!!!

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Echoes of 2000: Bill Bradley draws big crowds; Camp Gore says, "No Worries"

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