Retiring GOP Rep. Dan Benishek
:
• MI-01: On Tuesday, Republican Rep. Dan Benishek announced that he would not seek re-election next year. Benishek weirdly cited his 2010 pledge to only serve three terms, a pledge he was fine breaking a few months ago when he kicked off his bid for a fourth term. Benishek was seen as a shaky campaigner (though he seemed to be improving in 2014) but he had the power of incumbency, and it's not clear yet if his decision will help or hurt the GOP here.
Benishek's departure opens up this northern Michigan seat, which includes the entire Upper Peninsula. Romney carried the 1st District 54-45 but Democrats often do well here: Benishek himself only won re-election that year 48.1 to 47.6. GOP operatives gave Roll Call's Emily Cahn four potential Republican candidates, and none of them ruled out a campaign on Tuesday. State Sen. Tom Casperson, who lost this seat to then-Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak, said that he's giving Benishek his day, but he noted that "[h]istory has shown that I have an interest in this race." There was some speculation that Benishek was planning to run for re-election this cycle so that he could retire in 2018 and give Casperson the chance to run in a midterm year, which tend to be more favorable for Team Red.
A few other Republicans have also expressed some level of interest. State Rep. Peter Pettalia, who was publicly considering challenging Benishek in the GOP primary back in April, acknowledged on Tuesday that "a multitude of groups" have asked him to run. Former state Sen. Jason Allen, who lost the 2010 primary to Benishek by 15 votes, said that he needs "to have some conversations as I consider it." State Sen. Wayne Schmidt was the most evasive of the four, only saying that he's focusing on his work in the legislature and whatever "happens in the future will play itself out."
Democrats were already planning to target this seat, and much of the party establishment has consolidated behind former state party leader Lon Johnson. Johnson isn't well known to voters, but he has a reputation as a great fundraiser. 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon is also running again, but the DCCC thought he ran a weak campaign last time.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Both parties are waiting to see if Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler will challenge Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet, and it sounds like they won't need to wait much longer. Brauchler, whom the NRSC has been working hard to recruit, says he will decide in early October.
• IN-Sen: Despite spending months considering a bid for this open seat, GOP state Sen. Mike Delph announced on Tuesday that he would sit this race out. Delph's move is good news for Rep. Marlin Stutzman: Delph's far-right views (he was a prominent backer of the ill-fated Religious Freedom Restoration Act) and his poor relationship with his party's leadership could have taken key anti-establishment votes away from the tea partying Stutzman.
Right now, the GOP primary remains a three-way fight between Stutzman, Rep. Todd Young, and the well-connected but underfunded former state party chair Eric Holcomb. State Sen. Jim Merritt also flirted with a bid for a while, but he joined Young's campaign last month, and there don't appear to be any other notable Hoosier Republicans who are still considering running. Holcomb and Young have a similar base of support among more establishment-oriented primary voters and if they split the tea party vote enough, it will give Stutzman a better chance. Democrats will have a tough fight no matter what, though the ultra conservative and not-always disciplined Stutzman would likely give them their best shot at a pickup.
• NH-Sen, Gov: Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has been dealing with a budget standoff with the GOP-led state legislature for months, and she pledged to put her 2016 plans on hold until everything was resolved. Well, on Tuesday, the Hassan and legislative leaders reached a deal to adopt a compromise. The budget still needs to be voted on and ex-GOP speaker Bill O'Brien is trying to rally support against it in the state House, but things should move along quickly now. Both parties have been waiting anxiously to see if Hassan will challenge GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte or seek another two-year term as governor, and assuming there aren't any surprises, we should have our answer sooner rather than later.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: The first TV ad of this race comes from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150. The spot hits GOP Gov. Mike Pence on the condition of the state's roads, with the narrator declaring, "[w]ith $2 billion in excess reserves, Gov. Pence has no plan to prevent further road disasters." There's no word on the size of the buy.
• LA-Gov: It was only a matter of time before GOP Sen. David Vitter's history of soliciting prostitutes became a campaign issue, and a recent anti-Vitter spot seems to have opened the door to more chatter about his indiscretions.
At a Monday debate, both Vitter and fellow Republican Jay Dardenne were asked if they had ever violated Title 14 under Louisiana statutes while serving in elected office: Title 14 is the entire state criminal code, so both men were essentially asked if they ever broke the law while in elected office. Dardenne predictably said he'd never violated Title 14, but Vitter first claimed he didn't know off the top of his head what Title 14 is, before lashing out at the question itself:
It's a gotcha question, not a good public debate question for a discussion about the future of Louisiana. So let's all recognize what's going on here and what it's all about. I've spoken about my past and how my family has dealt with that, actions from 15 years ago and how me and my family have dealt with that. I'm very happy and very proud to say we've dealt with it just fine. If that's not good enough for you, then that's not good enough for you. But it is for Wendy [his wife] and it is for our family. It is for us. I really don't appreciate the games and the gotcha question planted on behalf of my opponents.
As Dardenne points out, it's very implausible that Vitter, who taught at both Tulane and Loyola Law in New Orleans, doesn't remember what Title 14 is. The rest of Vitter's response is basically what he's been saying since the scandal broke in 2007: He made a mistake, his wife has forgiven him, and that's that. Vitter's strategy worked fine in 2010: No credible Republicans challenged him (aside from a former state supreme court justice who
had his own issues), and he decisively beat Democrat Charlie Melancon.
We'll see if Vitter's approach has the same effect this time: It's been a long eight years since this story broke but unlike in 2010, angry conservatives can flock to another Republican like Dardenne or Scott Angelle. In any case, this is far from the last time we'll hear about Vitter's past in the lead up to the Oct. 24 jungle primary.
For his part, Vitter is using his massive cash advantage to portray himself in a better light. A new ad features a woman identified as Deborah Cazalot praising Vitter for getting her on the transplant list, which saved her life. The spot begins with Cazalot saying that her doctor initially told her that she wouldn't be able to get on the transplant list because she doesn't have good enough insurance, which sounds like it should be the opening of a commercial for Obamacare.
House:
• MN-02: In the last few days, three more Republicans have ruled out running to succeed retiring Rep. John Kline in this swing seat. Rich guy and 2014 GOP Senate nominee Mike McFadden's decision to stay put probably won't devastate Team Red: McFadden's campaign against Sen. Al Franken didn't leave a lot of people impressed, though this weird commercial will live on forever. However, former Minnesota First Lady and Judge Mary Pawlenty appeared to have some fans, but she also closed the door on a bid. State Sen. Eric Pratt has also announced that he wouldn't go for it. At this point, four Republicans are actively considering running: state Reps. Tony Albright and Steve Drazkowski, ex-state Sen. Ted Daley, and ex-state Rep. Pam Myhra.
Things are moving a bit slower on the Democratic side. State Rep. Rich Hansen says he's still making his decision, but will announce what he's doing on Sunday. Fellow state Rep. Joe Atkins gave himself a more flexible timeline, saying he'll announce his plans in the next few weeks. Two wealthy Democrats, health care executive Angie Craig and physician Mary Lawrence, are already in.
• PA-02: Rep. Chaka Fattah was indicted for racketeering in late July but only one candidate, former congressional aide and ward leader Dan Muroff, has entered the race to challenge him for renomination. The National Journal's Kimberly Railey checks in on this safely blue Philadelphia seat and finds that things are likely to remain quiet here.
Three potential Fattah successors, state Sen. Vincent Hughes, City Council President Darrell Clarke, and outgoing Mayor Michael Nutter, are all backing Fattah, and few influential Democrats have called for his resignation or defeat. CrowdPAC, a nonpartisan website where individuals can pledge to support specific candidates for office, has been trying to recruit a primary challenger for months but so far, no one besides Muroff is showing any interest.
It's actually not too surprising to see prominent Democrats refusing to jump in. If Fattah ends up resigning, ward leaders will pick the new nominee; Fattah still has a lot of allies in Philadelphia politics, and would-be candidates don't want to offend the ward leaders by challenging him now. Fattah's trial isn't scheduled until after the primary, so we can't count on a conviction to shake things up. The good news for Muroff is that if no one else runs, he'll be able to consolidate whatever anti-Fattah vote there is. The bad news is that powerful Democrats seem fine keeping Fattah in office for now, and Muroff will need to work hard if he's going to beat their preferred candidate.
Other Races:
• VA State Senate: Democrats have been targeting Republican incumbent Frank Wagner in the swingy SD-07, but this isn't going to help them. Democratic nominee Gary McCollum has said in his campaign and business literature that he's "currently a major in the Army Reserve," but the Army confirmed that he was discharged in 2001. McCollum's campaign says that until now, he thought he was still in the Army Reserve and hasn't has any contact with them since 1992. The GOP is jumping on this story and at best, it's a very unwelcome distraction for Team Blue. Democrats need to net one seat this fall to retake control of the state Senate and they have a few other pickup opportunities, but not many.
Grab Bag:
• Canada General: Canadians go to the polls Oct. 19, and polls show a tight three-way race between Prime Minister Stephen Harper's ruling Conservative Party, the left-wing opposition New Democratic Party, and the center-left Liberal Party. There are a lot of reasons the Conservatives are in trouble, but a strange long-running residency scandal has been the source of plenty of headaches for Harper. In a new post, David Beard fills us in on all the crazy details.
• VA Redistricting:
Click to enlarge
After a federal court struck down Virginia's congressional districts over illegal racial gerrymandering in the 3rd District, a court special master will now draw the map. They are accepting submissions from the parties involved in the litigation as well as from the general public by this Friday, so we would love to see what you would draw as a remedy using
Dave's Redistricting App. In collaboration with community member
JacobNC, Daily Kos Elections presented its own map below and we welcome your feedback. See Stephen Wolf's
post for more details about this court case and what the redraw will entail.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
