Now that's how a president does it.
Democrats:
Since the pre-Thanksgiving edition we’ve had a few minor kerfuffles over data, this race has in the past week or so gotten interesting! Finally!
The big news is the Sanders Campaign coming on strong. After a quarter of blockbuster fundraising and some favorable coverage in the TV media, the campaign team is finally showing some ability to execute like a real presidential campaign. I cite as evidence the Sanders’ Campaign flawless anti Wall-Street speech delivered in Manhattan. Many of you will remember the criticism I leveled against the campaign for the now forgotten “socialism” speech.
Not how a president does it.
The contrast with the “wall street” speech could not have been more stark. Somebody in the campaign probably thought it was a good idea to make Sanders start looking like a president. Furthermore, it played to the candidate’s strengths which made for a fluid delivery. I’m sure folks in Burlington are high-fiving and rightly so. It was well run, presidential caliber event. Couple that with early signs that the campaign is beginning to crack the establishment and finally broaden its appeal. Folks, we might have a campaign here that has gotten its act together to make a real race out of it!
However, there is no sign the Clinton Campaign is resting on its comfortable lead. The campaign organization also reported incredibly robust fundraising and is so flush it is able to shower state party organizations with resources. There is nothing that buys loyalty like money (crossing myself and praising the Lord). The campaign is also indicating it is willing to take the fight to Sanders over guns, once again aligning the campaign with President Obama. This of course makes complete sense. There is but one person in America who can speak with a mandate about what Democrats are all about. One notable event in the Clinton Campaign is the apparent discipline of the sprawling Clinton Apparatus. As you all know I’ve been raising this concern for a while. Somehow they’ve gotten the many thousands of donors, supplicants, supporters, and other erstwhile hangers on to shut up for a change. And Bill is sticking to the script on the campaign trail.
Both campaigns are seeing a general upward trend in their numbers, which tells me the undecideds are coming off the fence and choosing sides. At present, that still leaves Clinton comfortably ahead. The Sanders Campaign still is in the tough position of having to convince Clinton supporters to switch sides, a daunting task. However, with Clinton playing defense there is some indication we are seeing erosion in her general election case. This is not unusual for someone in her position, running as a quasi-incumbent.
For these reasons I am downgrading her primary election chances to orderly win from easy win and her general election chances to close loss from tossup.
Verdict: Hillary Clinton wins orderly nomination, close loss in the general election.
Republicans:
Last time I noted three things that stood out:
1. The utter and near total collapse of Bush.
2. The sturdiness of Trump.
3. The organization of Cruz.
So far we have seen this race confirm these things. Reporting has now dived into the Cruz
The assholes are winning.
Organization and it is as potent as many of us suspected. As I stated, there are still quite a few flaws as a candidate that need to be sorted out before he looks like a real winner. Cruz, however, is smart. And he is clearly executing a well thought out plan. Trump is still Trump. He’s remaining firmly in the lead. We can now begin to pay as much attention to Bush as we do to Rand Paul.
The two people I think are notable here is the so far not ready for prime time campaign of Marco Rubio. Rubio doesn’t seem to have any kind of strategy other than wait around for something good to happen. His fellow media darling Chris Christie seems to think New Hampshire constitutes a good place to win over the Republican Party. Both candidates have a good case to make based on the delegate geography that they can win the nomination. The problem is that Trump is doing much better than them in that same geography (if he can convince his supporters to show up). Furthermore, they’ve taken to trying to attack each other, with other candidates joining in.
In both cases, for Cruz and for the establishmentarians, the problem remains of what to do about Donald Trump. Cruz has adopted a strategy of just out-hustling him, avoiding direct contact, and beating him at the polls in the places that play to Cruz’ strengths with evangelicals and movement conservatives. The GOP Establishment and its candidates, however, are just flummoxed. Jeb Bush’s people made it clear a long time go that they thought Trump would benefit them and they look forward to a one on one race with him. The problem is Bush hasn’t demonstrated he would actually win that one on one race. Quite the opposite in fact.
Looking at the depth and breadth of the Cruz organizational gravity, the fecklessness of the establishment candidates, and Trump’s sturdy and stiff strength among working class whites (the base of the GOP), this race is being upgraded for Cruz as the ultimate victor after a brusing, tough battle.
Verdict: Cruz wins brutal nomination fight, but unites the party for a close win in the general.
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