Some campers claiming 23-21 split, have mathematics, behind their assertions. While most news agencies and websites have opted to declare IOWA a tie, that is a fallacy. The split can never be an even number split. Bear with me while I try to translate the numbers buzzing in my head to English.
1. The national convention delegates are awarded mostly at congressional district level allocation and some at State level allocation.
2. The allocations of 44 Delegates for Iowa are as follows.
|Iowa — congressional district 1
|iowa — congressional district 2
|iowa — congressional district 3
|iowa — congressional district 4
Also on a Statewide basis 15 delegates.
3. Since Congressional district 3 allocation of national delegates is an odd number of delegates available, it has to break in favour of someone. So this breaks 4 — 3
4. Since starewide allocation of national delegates also is an odd number of delegates available, it also has to break in favour of someone. so that will be 8— 7
5. Even with the overall difference being miniscule, the extra difference that causes congressional district 3 to break in favour of Clinton gives Clinton 1 extra delegate there. Similarly in the statewide, Clinton picks up an extra delegate.
6 That is two whole delegates. therefore due to “numerology” (okay i mean arithmetic, combined with the what seems like convolvulated process of delegate allocation) we have 23 — 21 break in favour of Clinton.
in case anyone wants to check, (looks like someone in clinton camp has been doodling numbers and claiming a win) see the map above for the counties are in Iowa third district. I am going to double check the numbers but I think Clinton did well in Polk county to make that split matter locally at district level and nationally.
Congratulations and kudos to whoever it was that first broke the 23-21 split news. and whoever decided to make that extra effort in Polk.
So Hillary Clinton 23 — Bernie Sanders 21. And I just lost a bet of $5 to Jason for predicting it wrong last month.
I am sorry too many of my posts seem to have maths. i will try to minimize them in future.