Northern Marianas (Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands) specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 6 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The Northern Marianas Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party (since 2012) and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Northern Marianas has 6 delegates available. These are all allocated on at-large basis. I am having hard time finding the “Delegate Selection Plan” and caucus location for this place. Any help appreciated. My apologies for limited information here.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 12th March 2016. CNMI operates a closed caucus. (Party members only). Most likely if anyone manages to discover where the caucus is they will probably be admitted to the caucus anyway.
All Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates are listed below. All delegates are awarded at the single caucus.
Delegate Allocation Triggers - At-Large
Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Given that the party has virtually zero footprint in commonwealth governance and was only admitted to the National party in 2012, what happens here is anyone's guess. With around 2000 Democratic Party leaning voters out of 36000 during general elections in the whole of commonwealth, my guess is anyone who turns up to the caucus with their family can turn the delegate allocation here.
By default the party apparatus who do turn up will end up giving 5 Delegates to Clinton and 1 Delegates to Sanders. That one delegate influence by one of our own Kossacks single handedly preventing a Sanders wipe out. Of course there is always a possibility that if they turn up with 10 people from their local, it would end up with 4 for Sanders and 2 for Clinton. (PS no, this is not a snarky comment).
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today’s shout outs to Kossacks SalamMorcos. Thank you for the help.
And the groups Chicago Kossacks and New Orleans Nation and Louisiana Kossacks
Also The Grace Kelly with Kellys best reads running http://mnprogressiveproject.com/