Delaware specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 21 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Delaware Democratic Party is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
If anyone has a better map (public permitted use) of Delaware, could you give us a shout or perhaps just drop a link somewhere.
Basic Data: Delaware has 21 delegates available. There is just 1 congressional district. However Delaware Democratic Party has opted to divide the district based delegate allocations into four different polity areas (jurisdictions). Including PLEO (Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at large allocations there are six different delegate allocation units.
Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 2 each from Kent County, Sussex County and City of Wilmington. 8 delegates from New Castle County (excluding City of Wilmington). Additionally 2 PLEOs and 5 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Presidential Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 26th April 2016. Delaware operates a closed primary. Participation is open only to registered members of the Democratic Party.
Same day registration is not available. The deadlines for presidential primary in operation are: for changing party affiliations (ie changing registration” is 26th Feb 2016. Registration deadline for those not not yet registered (or dropped off the list) is 02 April 2016. Registration deadline for military service members and overseas citizens is 11 April 2016.
There are other elections later on, like state/local primary in 27 May 2016. They have their own separate deadlines. You can still register to vote.
More information from the Democratic Party here although http://www.deldems.org/ it appears to be not as forthcoming with information as one would expect.
State government information on voting and voter related stuff here http://elections.delaware.gov/index.shtml and http://elections.delaware.gov/faqs.shtml.
Voter ID Laws: ID is requested. ID requirements are fairly relaxed compared to other states. Here is a link from New Castle county election commission explaining http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/faqs/voting.shtml polling place card doubles up as acceptable and valid ID. Just about anything appears to be satisfactory acceptable.
Unit (County/City) Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on delegate awarding polity divisions based allocations are listed below.
Delegate Allocation Triggers
out of available
For 2 Delegates Polity (Kent County, Sussex County, City of Wilmington): One of the important things to remember is that viability threshold for 2 delegate districts is 25%. There are three of these. The first delegate is available at 25%. Second delegate at 75%.
For 8 Delegates Polity: (Consisting of rest of New Castle county excluding Wilmington city): Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for (6-2) split. A (7-1) split at 81.3%. This is the most promising place for delegates.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: (See table Below) Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 2 PLEOs and 5 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a larger movement in support/vote level would be needed for delegate advantages.
Due to very small number of triggers a single combined table showing each individual vote share % trigger point and the corresponding number of delegates in each category.
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
|Vote Share %
|At-Large (5 Del)
For 2 PLEO: The first delegate and viability threshold is very expensive at 25% votes. Second delegate even more expensive at 75%.
For 5 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. available. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. The statewide winner gets an extra delegate advantage in this category too.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: This is the land of Joe Biden and also Christine O’Donnell. Personally, even though Christine O’Donnell was a tea-party dynamo, I felt then and now that the “witch” attack was duplicitous and wrong. It is the same kind of attack whether be launched by Republicans or Democrats is ultimately adding to oppressive patriarchy and other crazy crap attacks on politically active women. While we smirk at the failure of Tea-Party favourite to capture Delaware senate seat, but our smirking at the same time betrays the fact that even the progressive movement and democratic party has a lot more still to overcome. Yes the party has been in forefront of equality in all aspects fight, but that does not excuse us of our shortcomings. We can only hope that it gets better.
Corporate Capitol: For more than a century, Delaware is also the preferred homeland of corporations. Corporation friendly laws and more importantly, a well established corporation friendly judicial, legal, jurisprudence intuitionalism system has been in operation for very long time. Instigated and originally driven by the DuPont crowd. The success at attracting corporations has been phenomenal. In case you were wondering why you spotted (or most likely not) that most of the companies you dealt with or worked for or heard of seemed to be incorporated in Delaware, this is why.
Almost all Democratic Party political actors in the state are a bit extra friendly towards corporations. They have not had any issues with raising sufficient funds for their own and party coffers. The last time someone had funding problem was Joe Biden in his first ever political run against an established Republican incumbent. (current Vice-President). Most Democratic politicians tend to be socially liberal, economically conservative.
Another advantage point for Clinton.
Social Liberalism arrives at Delaware: Social liberalism and progressivism arrived in Delaware mainly because the rich people and their entourage who inhabited the state did not deem themselves constrained by the conservative limitations imposed in other states. They wanted their affairs, their fast divorces and remarriages. They sent their women to school and universities. While trickle down economics does not work, trickle down social changes and legislative changes do work. Sadly the expenditure in enabling social changes are still very low. For example, schooling has seemed to be historically been based on “Hey rich people can afford schooling so who cares about the quality of schooling for poor. As long as they can read and write they do not need anything more ”.
This does present a substantial chunk of electorate that is unhappy with the corporate culture and what is effectively an economic disparity affecting life and future. This does give a good ground for Sanders message to resonate sadly as well as Trumps. I view this as an advantage point for Sanders.
Religious and Tea party backlash has been on the rise.
Numbers and Stuff:
Now for the data stuff. Sussex county, very suitable for Sanders message. I would not be surprised if Sanders managed a 75%
Two factors playing against Hillary Clinton here. Firstly, Joe Biden home circles resentful of Biden being pushed out/denied the race. Roughly 4% of people still voted for him in 2008 primary when Biden had long since quit the race. Second Chris Coons (Democrat senator from Delaware who likes to call himself “Witchslayer” ) who seems to have taken it as personal affront that Hillary Clinton only called him “Senator” instead of “Senator Coons” one time they met. But that might just be desire to be noticed and ego which will take back seat to getting re-elected. Additional factor playing in favour of Sanders, Sussex and Kent County a bit more favourable. These could even push upwards of 60% for Sanders. However probably not as much as 75% needed for both delegates to be awarded. So delegate splits (1-1) for both.
In Wilmington City itself, Clinton should do very well. Clinton core support could be pushing hard towards 75% needed for both delegates. Perhaps not quite enough to propel into 2 delegates. so here again (1-1) split.
In the 8 delegate New Castle County (all of it excluding the City of Wilmington) Sanders should get favourable treatment. However that will probably only enough to make a 5-3 split which needs 56.3%. From statewide results, PLEO (1-1) split. At large splitting (3-2) in Clinton favour.
Total out of 21 (Clinton 10 — Sanders 11).
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Today I invite you to read this piece from Chris Reeves here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/11/1499459/-Bernie-Hillary-Raise-Record-Numbers-In-Two-Days-State-Candidates-Not-So-Much