The Confirmation Bias Election

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday April 20, 2016 · 7:35 AM PDT

2016/04/20 · 07:35

"A Man Hears What He Wants to Hear, and Disregards the Rest.." - Paul Simon, the Boxer

When American Poet Paul Simon sang the Boxer, he wasn’t talking about boxing as much as much as undo criticism for his early career and his acceptance of the need for change. There have been a lot of meanings associated with The Boxer, but over years it has been associated with both determination and confirmation bias.

“A Man Hears What He Wants To Hear / And Disregards The Rest..” was a mocking jest at the idea that he took rejection or loss, gained from it his own interpretation and moved on. In the era of the internet, though, confirmation bias has moved from an internal self-deceit.

The nature of the internet, however, has put a lot of people into a giant echo chamber. People who support Hillary tend to only friend/associate with others who support Hillary. People who support Sanders tend to know and communicate mostly with persons who support Sanders.

Years ago, this was also true — it is obvious you associate with people like you.

But social media has added a whole new layer of confirmation bias. As individuals see stories, posts, content about their candidate (Hillary or Bernie) their internal bias is bolstered significantly and as a result, they become farther away from any concept that another viewpoint is even possible.

With tons of news sources that will prop up your candidate of choice — whoever that may be — it is easy to have your own theories of everything confirmed. You seek out news sources and media that delivers the most favorable interpretation you already believe in, and that is now “the truth”.

Thanks to social media, you share, spread, and note those ideas to others, and you help bolster their confirmation bias.

What I’m discovering as time goes on, though, is that if you look at the number of people who don’t bother with widescale participation in social media or online communication, traditional fundamentals of an election stay. Republicans stay Republican. Democrats vote Democrats. The rest is noise, confirmation bias held by those who back their candidate (no matter who it is).

The problem? The farther we go down this particular rabbit hole, the easier it is for both sides to believe two conflicting, and completely wrong ideas.

For Hillary Supporters — Hillary supporters who talk, primarily, to other Hillary supporters, of course support their candidate. Because of confirmation bias, though, many head on issues that are resonating with Bernie campaign supporters aren’t being as quickly adopted by the Hillary supporters (not the campaign) because they don’t feel the need to pivot… too many of their friends/connections are all discussing their issues.

For Bernie Supporters — Bernie supporters who talk, primarily, to other Bernie supporters support their candidate too.. but because they don’t actually have enough sit down on issues that resonate with Hillary supporters, they also struggle to grab hold of why voters vote for Hillary.

The reality is, no matter which candidate you support, now is the ideal time to “burst the bubble” and have authentic dialogue with others about what specifically motivates them. My gut tells me there is a lot of agreement in the broad terms, but there will also be quite a bit of room to learn about different motivating factors.

We also have to think critically about our candidates, all of them. If there was ever a time to break some walls, talk to some people who think differently then you do.. in a peaceful, civil way, now is likely the right time.

For the most part, people who intend to vote for Hillary/Bernie won’t bite you if you talk to them with respect about their candidate and find out why they vote the way they do. You may not agree with them, that isn’t a requirement.

But frankly, the fewer social posts I see from individuals that proclaim “how can X happen, I don’t know anyone who would vote for Y” — a phrase I’ve seen from both campaigns depending on what state you are in — the better off we all will be.

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