Out this morning is the latest Franklin and Marshall poll out of Pennsylvania, and it shows Pennsylvania going strongly for Hillary.
The top line is Hillary 58%, Bernie 31%, a 27% margin.
Pennsylvania’s delegate total: 189
Looking at Torilahure’s excellent Delegate Math roundup for Pennsylvania, HERE, it appears that if Hillary wins PA by around 25% would mean roughly a net 50 delegate haul out of PA.
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Hillary Clinton with a sizable lead over Bernie Sanders, 58% to 31%
The Democratic presidential primary race in Pennsylvania has changed little since January. The poll shows Hillary Clinton with a sizable lead over Bernie Sanders, 58% to 31%, which is consistent with her lead in prior polls. The poll also shows that both Democratic candidates are perceived favorably by registered Democrats.
Compared to previous polls it looks like Hillary’s lead has grown while Bernie’s appeal has remained the same in the Keystone state:
As we see here, a remarkably stable race in Pennsylvania, but with Hillary’s number seeing an uptick of almost 10% since January while Bernie’s numbers remained stagnant. Note: The numbers in this graphic are for “registered voters” in this sample, while the numbers reported as the topline are the “likely voters” numbers.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a sizable lead in the presidential race among registered Democrats in Pennsylvania. Secretary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders among all Democrats 55% to 29%, with 11% reporting they are still undecided. Secretary Clinton’s lead is similar among likely voters, 58% to 31%. Clinton supporters (87%) are more likely than Sanders supporters (76%) to say they are certain about their vote choice.
A sizable 27% lead in PA, and 11% more Hillary supporters than Bernie supporters are sure that they are voting for Hillary, have made up their minds.
Crosstabs:
Democratic Presidential Primary: Registered Democrats, Pennsylvania April 2016
If the Democratic primary election for president was being held today and the candidates included (rotated) Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, would you vote for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote?
Except for the under 35 age group Hillary leads in all other ages and with all other groups tested.
Methodology:
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted April 11 -18, 2016. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of Pennsylvania registered voters, including 510 Democrats and 549 Republicans. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and on-line depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (gender and region) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State for each party. The sampling error is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of Democrats and is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the sample of Republicans when the design effects from weighting are considered. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of nonsampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.
Conclusion:
This poll shows Hillary with a lead much larger than yesterday’s Monmouth poll (which showed a 13% Hillary lead.) It is a closed primary and, given how Hillary out performed her poll numbers in New York on Tuesday, my opinion is that the PA numbers will be closer to this poll result here (somewhere in the 20s) on Tuesday.
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