A new Harvard poll with a sample of 3,000 Millennials (18 to 29) found that Millenials overwhelmingly back Hillary over Trump. It appears that Millennials understand how much better Hillary is than Trump, how toxic Trump is to their particular set of goals and dreams. That isn’t always what the media tells us, with many asking open questions like “Will young voters support Hillary in November?” The implication is that since many Bernie supporters are Millennials and there is such a thing as the “Bernie or Bust” movement among that group, that many young people won’t vote for Hillary. That appears not to be an issue for November.
I had also blogged about a previous Millennial poll conducted by USA TODAY/Rock the Vote, USA Today/Rock the Vote poll: In GE Hillary crushes Trump with Millenials by 33%. 52% to 19%. These newer findings confirm that poll.
MILLENNIAL’S PREFERENCES IN THE GENERAL ELECTION
Topline: Hillary 61% to Trump 25%
Harvard survey shows Republicans’ disadvantage among young voters is growing
Young voters favor Hillary Clinton for president over Donald Trump by a landslide margin, a new poll of 18- to 29-year-olds finds, and their interest in any Republican for president has dropped significantly over the last year of campaigning.
The new youth poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that when likely voters under 30 were asked about a general election match-up between the two parties’ front-runners, 61% said they would vote for Mrs. Clinton, 25% said Mr. Trump, and 14% were not sure.
The findings underscore how important young voters are to Mrs. Clinton’s coalition, as she tries to maintain the surge of millennial-generation support that propelled President Barack Obama’s election and re-election. It also points to growing trouble Republicans face in wooing millennial voters, who are for the first time in 2016 matching Baby Boomers as a share of the electorate.
A 36% edge for Hillary over Trump. If it stays at that range the youth vote for Hillary in November would best both Obama elections.
Obama won the 18 to 29 vote in 2008 against John McCain by 34%, 66% to 32%.
Obama won the 18 to 29 vote in 2012 against Mitt Romney by 24%, 60% to 36%.
Gap between Democratic and Republican Party with Millenials is growing
Republicans’ disadvantage among young voters is growing. The poll found that 61% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred a Democrat win the 2016 presidential election, 33% preferred a Republican. That 28-point spread is twice as wide as when the Harvard institute polled young people in spring 2015, when the split was 55% for a Democrat and 40% were for a Republican.
Good news for Democrats is that the party gap is growing leaps and bounds. It was only a 15% spread in Spring of 2015, it has grown to 28% now. Republicans are literally killing themselves with Millennials on messaging and issues. Having a crop of terrible to toxic candidates starting at 17 then whittled down to 3 for the Republican nomination hasn’t helped in that process. Millennials are now very sour on the Republican Party. That is good news not just for the top ticket in November, but also for down ticket candidates.
Democrats continue to have a large and growing advantage among Hispanic and black young voters, with a 55-point and 78-point edge over Republicans, respectively. But Republicans have even lost their past advantage among white youth, which favored the GOP by a 12-point margin a year ago. Now, whites under 30 are about equally split, with Democrats holding a two point edge.
The youth vote is turning strongly towards the Democrats for this general election. We don’t just have a strong advantage with Hispanic and Black young voters, but now even with White young voters, a group that favored Republicans pretty decisively just last year.
A more in-depth analysis of the findings from the actual poll itself, with all crosstabs, here:
Among Likely Voters, Clinton Leads Trump by 36 Points; Trump Underperforming Among Young Republicans.
Among likely voters, Clinton maintains the same 61% that a “generic Democrat” receives, while Donald Trump receives 25%, 8 percentage points lower than the current “generic Republican” White House preference. Among young Democrats, Clinton leads Trump by 78 points (83%: Clinton; 5%: Trump), but among Republicans, Trump leads by only 44 points (57%: Trump; 13%: Clinton). Among Independents, Clinton has a 23-point lead (43%: Clinton; 20%: Trump), with 36% undecided. Clinton leads significantly with both men and women. Among men, it’s 47% for Clinton, 29% supporting Trump; and the lead expands among women, with 57% for Clinton and 15% for Trump. Clinton has a narrow 6-point lead among 18- to 29-year-old whites (38%: Clinton; 32%: Trump), but polls into the 70s with both the black and Hispanic communities. Among African Americans, Clinton leads Trump 76% to 5%, and among Hispanics, she has a similar-sized lead at 71% to Trump’s 9%.
Hillary and Democrats enjoy strong leads in every demo group, even with White Millenials here.
Majority of 18- to 29-Year-Olds Reject Both Socialism and Capitalism.
When 18- to 29-year-old young Americans were asked whether or not they support socialism, capitalism, and other political theories and labels, a majority reject both socialism and capitalism. Socialism is supported by 33% of young Americans, while capitalism is supported by 42%. Among those most likely to vote, 41% support socialism and 52% support capitalism. Socialism is typically more supported by 18- to 20-year-olds (41%), Democrats (50%), Clinton voters (54%), Hispanics (38%) and African Americans (39%). Capitalism is more likely to be supported by people who have graduated from college (56%), whites (43%), men (49%), people who live in the South (46%) and the West (45%), and members of the GOP (54%).
Interesting split in Socialism vs. Capitalism here among Millenials.
Nearly 3-in-5 Believe There’s a “Glass Ceiling” Facing Women in America Today; 64% Say Men Have More Advantages.
When 18- to 29-year-olds were asked whether a glass ceiling (a barrier to advancement in a profession) exists for women in America today, nearly three in five (59%) indicated yes. Young women are significantly more likely to believe a glass ceiling exists (68%), compared to men (50%). In a related question, 64% of those polled believe that men have more advantages than women in America today and 7% believe that women hold more advantages (27%: treated equally). Those who are either in college (73%), graduate school (74%), or have already graduated from college (68%), are significantly more likely to believe that men have more advantages than women than those who are in a 2-year college (64%) or never attended (59%). In addition, 75% of African Americans believe men have more advantages, compared to 61% for whites and 65% for Hispanics. When we asked Democrats, 76% believe men have more advantages than women, while less than half (48%) of Republicans agree. Despite these findings, 74% of young Americans believe that if Clinton were to lose in November, there will be a woman president in their lifetime (77%: Male; 72%: Female).
Other interesting finding in the crosstabs. I encourage a read through the findings.
The goal of the project was to collect 3,000 completed interviews with young Americans between 18- and 29-years old. The main sample data collection took place from March 18 through April 3. A small pretest was conducted prior to the main survey to examine the accuracy of the data and the length of the interview.
Five thousand, five hundred and fifty-eight (5,558) KnowledgePanel members were assigned to the study. The cooperation rate was 57 percent which resulted in 3,183 completed interviews included in this report (after data cleaning). One hundred thirty-five (135 ) interviews were conducted in Spanish with the remainder done in English. The web-enabled KnowledgePanel® is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and residential addresses. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides a laptop and ISP connection at no cost. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and are sent e-mails throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. More technical information is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/... and by request to the IOP.