We can get through this together guys!
I think we all agree that Donald Trump is a nightmare scenario as a candidate. The longer he goes on, the more the stomachs turn in the RNC. But they’ve always had a bitter ray of sunshine. The donors. Even if Trump turned into a mega turd and none of the big money boys would back him, they’d just direct them to get involved in the down ballot races. Take their lumps with Trump, but live to fight another day. Not Pollyanna, but not a total nuclear wipe out either. Survive and rebuild.
But what if that turns out to not be true? Mark Halperin made a very interesting point yesterday on With All Due Respect. He said that there are basically two kinds of GOP major donors. First are the big money guys who climbed onto the Trump bandwagon early, and are now having serious buyers remorse. They’re not writing checks currently, and may not write more if Trump keeps ricocheting all over the place. The second group are the fat cats who had enough reservations that they didn’t open their checkbooks, and nothing they’ve seen has given them any reason to grab a pen. The RNC backup plan has always been to let Trump tank if needed, and get the fat cats to support the down ballot races and save what they can.
But it may well not work out that way. Trump has been an even bigger nightmare than the GOP could ever have imagined. His numbers have tanked. A Bloomberg poll shows Clinton +12 over Trump nationwide. But more alarming is how tight the Senate races are getting, and the available state polling in battleground states. The emerging picture is that Trump is dragging down the whole GOP. This is putting Senators and even Governors in jeopardy. And as we all know, there’s only a limited amount of time to stop a snowball before it becomes a full blown avalanche.
Mark Halperin makes a very good point. Rich guys didn’t get rich by being stupid. And they really like being rich. Those 9” thick wallets are sooooo comfy. They’re not under a time schedule. They are going to sit back and watch the polls. Not just the national polls, but the down line state polls as well. And if they see let’s just say Senate races like WI, NH and OH, where Feingold, Hassan and Strickland start to open up 7+ leads over Johnson, Ayotte and Portman, these guys are not going to throw $20 on a losing nag in a horse race. And if they get depressed enough in the results that they are seeing, they may just get completely disinterested and just stop looking at all and sit this one out. If they do that, then the RNC is going to have a real problem in trying to effectively fund their operations, much less being able to sufficiently fund difficult down line races. This could put even more House seats in unnecessary jeopardy. The RNC is twixt a rock and a very hard ‘nother rock here.
Not saying that it will happen, but it will be interesting to watch. Can Trump turn so toxic that he effectively shuts down the entire major donor class and in doing so makes it impossible for the Republican Party to compete? Stay tuned for updates.
Thanks as always for reading!
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