Leading Off:
● MO-Gov: The four-way Missouri GOP gubernatorial primary is on Tuesday, and it's far from clear what will happen. On behalf of the newsletter the Missouri Scout, the GOP group Remington Research gives retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens a clear lead with 29 percent of the vote; Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and rich guy John Brunner each grab 20, while ex-U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway is at 17. Three weeks ago, Remington had Greitens leading Brunner 29-22.
However, a new Mason-Dixon poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shows something completely different. They give Brunner the lead with 23 percent, while Greitens and Hanaway each take 21, and Kinder grabs 18. Last week, SurveyUSA showed Greitens beating Brunner 25-21. The good news is we won't need to wait much longer to find out which pollster (or pollsters) are on target.
Mason-Dixon also gives us our first look at the general election in a long time. They have Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster edging Kinder just 47-46, and leading Brunner 46-40. However, Koster defeats Hanaway 52-36, and crushes Greitens 52-33. But even though this survey shows that Greitens is the weakest potential Republican nominee, national Democrats aren't acting like that's the case. Late last week, the Democratic Governor's Association launched an ad buy against Greitens in what looks like an attempt to keep him out of the general election. Maybe the DGA is seeing very different numbers, or they believe that Greitens’ connections and military background will give him the chance to turn things around.
For his part, Greitens is hoping to take advantage of the DGA's ad campaign against him. Greitens is up with one last spot where the narrator argues that "Barack Obama and Washington Democrats are trying to hijack our Republican primary. A million dollars in false attacks on Eric Greitens, orchestrated by the Obama machine." The commercial goes on to urge Republicans not to let Team Blue steal the race, before Greitens comes on to call the DGA's move "everything that's wrong with politics."
Meanwhile, Hanaway is also going up with a spot attacking Greitens. The narrator insists that Greitens backs St. Louis' Democratic mayor "and his plan to bring dangerous Syrian refugees to Missouri," before it pledges that Hanaway will keep the state safe. Until now, Brunner has been attacking Greitens in commercials, while Greitens' allies have hit Brunner; however, Hanaway and Kinder have been left alone, and they've been running positive ads in turn. Hanaway's move suggests that she agrees with Remington and SurveyUSA that Greitens is her main threat on Tuesday.
Senate:
● IL-Sen: Democrat Tammy Duckworth is up with a new TV spot. The narrator reminds viewers that "[a]n enemy rocket took Tammy Duckworth's legs," but Duckworth "served in uniform for another decade, dedicated herself to helping veterans, led important fights to help veterans get jobs in a tough economy and fight homelessness."
The commercial then accuses GOP Sen. Mark Kirk of lying about her record in his own commercials, before a retired Marine shows up and declares that "[a]ny politician who would say that about another veteran would never get my vote. I'll stick with Tammy." Two former state Department of Veterans Affairs employees recently announced that they had backed away from a settlement they had reached with Duckworth in their workplace retaliation lawsuit, and this ad is likely Duckworth's attempt to get ahead of Kirk's inevitable commercials on the story.
● LA-Sen: This week, ex-Gov. Mike Foster endorsed state Treasurer John Kennedy, a Republican, in the crowded November jungle primary. Foster left office in 2004, so he may not have much pull with voters. (Though unlike so many recent Louisiana governors, he didn't leave office incredibly unpopular or go to jail afterwards.)
● WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold is out with another spot against Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. The commercial features a clip of Johnson saying, "I'll be the calmest guy on my election night. I win either way." The narrator argues that if Johnson loses his seat, he'll just fall back on "the $10 million bonus he paid himself as CEO," and if he wins, he'll support policies that only help other rich people.
● Senate: The Koch brothers' group Freedom Partners is launching new ad campaigns in three Senate battlegrounds. In Nevada, they're spending another $1.2 million, and their ad once again argues that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the former state attorney general, "drove Uber out of Nevada" after taking big donations from the taxi companies. The narrator frames Masto's move as an attack on working-class drivers, who only make $19 an hour. As Masto has noted before, Uber was operating without a state license at the time and she took donations from taxi companies in 2006 and 2010, long before Uber became an issue.
Unsurprisingly, Freedom Partners’ Ohio spot also leaves out some critical details. The commercial argues that Democrat Ted Strickland hiked fees, raised taxes, and trashed the rainy day fund while he was governor. Like so many GOP ads, this spot doesn't mention that Strickland was governor during the worst of the Great Recession. The commercial is part of a $1.4 million campaign. In Pennsylvania, Freedom Partners argues that Democrat Katie McGinty helped companies that helped her; the size-of-the-buy is $1.3 million.
Gubernatorial:
● VT-Gov: Rich guy Bruce Lisman is up with another negative TV spot against Lt. Gov. Phil Scott with one week to go before the GOP primary. The narrator argues that while serving in the legislature and as lieutenant governor, Scott got rich off government contracts for his construction company. The commercial even says that Scott got a contract to work on outgoing Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin's home.
House:
● AZ-01: With a month to go before the crowded GOP primary for this competitive seat, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu has picked up an endorsement from ex-Gov. Jan Brewer.
● CA-44: On behalf of former Hermosa Beach Mayor Nanette Barragan, Clarity Campaign Labs is out with a poll of the November all-Democratic race. They give state Sen. Isadore Hall a 38-34 edge. At the end of June, both campaigns had a similar amount of cash-on-hand.
● FL-19: Wealthy former Ambassador Francis Rooney is up with yet another commercial ahead of the Aug. 30 primary for this safely red seat. The spot reminds viewers that Gov. Rick Scott is in Rooney's corner, and features some footage of Scott praising the candidate.
● FL-23: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has completed quite the week of hell. Over the last few days, Wasserman Schultz stepped down as DNC chair after Wikileaks released a series of unflattering emails stolen from the committee, and several stories since then have revealed how many Democrats she angered during her tenure. Law professor Tim Canova, who is challenging Wasserman Schultz in the Aug. 30 primary for this safely blue south Florida seat, is hoping that voters at home are sick with Wasserman Schultz after all of this, and he's out with a new FM3 poll arguing that he has a good chance to win.
The survey, conducted in the days after Wasserman Schultz announced her departure, gives her just a 46-38 lead against Canova. However, primary voters still view Wasserman Schultz positively by a 52-35 margin; that's not a great number for a longtime incumbent, but it suggests that there aren't enough local Democrats infuriated with her for Canova to have a shot. Hillary Clinton won about 70 percent of the vote here in the March primary, so Canova can't win unless a significant number of Clinton supporters, along with Bernie Sanders' backers, have decided she needs to go.
● HI-01: Democratic Rep. Mark Takai died of pancreatic cancer last month, and unsurprisingly, the special election for the remainder of his term will be held in November at the same time as the general election. Ex-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, a Democrat, was already running to succeed Takai before he died, and she shouldn't have much trouble winning the special either.
● MN-08: GOP businessman Stewart Mills is up a new TV ad, and he's going negative for the first time this campaign. The narrator does some fear-mongering about Syrian refugees, and argues that Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan wants to bring in more. The commercial also says that "Nolan voted for Hillary Clinton's Iran nuclear deal that gave over $100 billion to the leading sponsor of terrorism." Mills seems to have decided that Donald Trump will do well in this Iron Range seat, even though Obama carried it 52-46, because this is not the type of commercial you run if you're trying to get support from Clinton voters.
● NH-01: While many of Republican Rep. Frank Guinta's old allies have abandoned him after his campaign finance scandal, the NRA has once again endorsed the incumbent. Guinta faces a primary with businessman Rich Ashooh next month in this swing seat.
Grab Bag:
● Primaries: Tuesday brings us our first big election night in a month, with primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. The main event will be the Missouri GOP gubernatorial primary, where four candidates are facing off in an expensive, nasty, and unpredictable race. As always, Jeff Singer gives us our preview of what to watch. The first polls close at 8:00 PM ET in Missouri and most of Kansas and Michigan, and as always, we'll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections and tweeting as well.
● Radio: On Sunday night, Jeff Singer appeared on Kudzu Vine to discuss a whole variety of topics, from the presidential election to several downballot contests. Click here to listen to a recording.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
