Leading Off:
● WV-Gov: On Wednesday, ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin announced that he would run for governor. Goodwin will face coal billionaire Jim Justice and state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler in the Democratic primary, while state Senate President Bill Cole has no major opposition on the GOP side. Goodwin was in the news recently when he finished prosecuting former coal executive Don Blankenship over the deaths of 29 of Blankenship's employees in a 2010 explosion, though he wasn't able to secure convictions on the most serious charges.
The National Journal's Karyn Bruggeman gives us a good look at the three-way primary. Justice is close to Sen. Joe Manchin and has hired several of his advisors, though Manchin hasn't endorsed Justice; Justice also has the support of the powerful United Mine Workers. Goodwin hails from a prominent political family that's close to ex-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and ex-Govs. Bob Wise and Gaston Caperton. Bruggeman characterizes the rivalry between the Justice and Goodwin camps as more tribal than ideological. For his part, Kessler is described as the most liberal candidate in the field.
4Q Fundraising:
● Senate: For the first time, we'll be collecting Senate quarterly fundraising reports from every key candidate in one place. We'll be adding and updating the numbers as they come in here.
● OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R-inc): $2.1 million raised, $12 million on hand
● MT-Gov: Steve Bullock (D-inc): $220,000 raised, $911,000 on hand; Greg Gianforte (R): $315,000 raised, $333,000 on hand
● PA-02: Brian Sims (D): $230,000 raised
● PA-08: Shaughnessy Naughton (D): $320,000 raised, $635,000 on hand
Senate:
● AK-Sen: Sen. Lisa Murkowski famously lost the 2010 GOP primary to tea partier Joe Miller but won the general election with a write-in campaign, and it seemed plausible that she'd face a notable primary challenger this year. However, while state Sen. Mike Dunleavy talked about running back in May, he recently took his name out of contention.
Miller, who also lost the 2014 primary, has been quiet over the last few months, but he's finally opened up about his plans, or lack thereof. Miller says he isn't seriously considering challenging Murkowski again, though he declined to rule the idea out altogether. Ex-Gov. Sarah Palin has hinted that she's interested but given how flaky she is, we'll believe it when we see it. Alaska's filing deadline isn't until June 1 so things have a bit longer to develop, but it's looking like Murkowski's 2016 re-election campaign will be far less eventful than her 2010 adventure.
● KY-Sen: Despite Jack Conway's surprisingly large loss in last year's gubernatorial contest, Kentucky Democrats haven't given up trying to recruit a candidate to take on Sen. Rand Paul. Retired Marine Andrew Horne tells Insider Louisville that "some people here locally and in D.C. reached out to me," and he is considering. Horne ran for the House in 2006 but lost the primary to John Yarmuth 54-32; Horne announced that he would challenge Sen. Mitch McConnell the next year, but he dropped out a few months later.
Horne's old rival Yarmuth had some kind words about him, but also says that he hears Lexington Mayor Jim Gray is considering. Interestingly, Inside Louisville says that Gray refused to comment on a possible Senate bid before they could even ask about it. If Gray runs, the GOP would undoubtedly find a way to inform conservative voters that the mayor is openly gay. Yarmuth also says that Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer and former Miss America Heath French Henry are considering, but they've also been quiet about their plans. The filing deadline is Jan. 26.
Gubernatorial:
● ME-Gov: Last June, when GOP Gov. Paul LePage threatened to cut off funding for a charter school if it didn't rescind a job offer it made to a Democratic legislator, it looked like he might have put himself in serious political jeopardy. Democrats, of course, were outraged, but LePage's fellow Republicans—with whom he's feuded constantly for years—also seemed ready to cut him loose, and impeachment looked like a real possibility.
But with the legislature now back in session, appetites for a divisive battle have dimmed. Democrats, who control the state House, now say they have no plans to move ahead with impeachment proceedings—and that word comes from none other than House Speaker Mark Eves, the very same guy LePage screwed out of the charter school gig. It also doesn't help matters that late last month, the state attorney general, Democrat Janet Mills, released a report saying there wasn't enough evidence to support pursuing a criminal investigation into LePage.
And even if the House were to proceed, any trial would take place in the Republican-controlled state Senate. The chamber's president, Michael Thibodeau, had previously been very critical of LePage, but with an election coming up, he now seems more focused on preserving his party's fragile 20-to-15 majority. What's more, Thibodeau also faces a potential primary challenge from former state Sen. Carol Weston, a LePage loyalist. (Last year, LePage vowed to personally campaign against any lawmaker who opposed his tax plan, as Thibodeau did.)
Eves (who is still pursuing a civil lawsuit against LePage) did hold out the vague possibility that an attempt to punish LePage could move forward in the future, but it sounds doubtful. Of course, LePage is still LePage, and he could very well wind up doing something horrible yet again that motivates the legislature anew.
● WA-Gov: Elway Research, a Washington-based pollster with a long reputation for polling local races well, is out with their first poll of Washington's 2016 gubernatorial race. Elway finds that people aren't paying much attention yet to this sleepy race, leaving a lot of undecideds. Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee leads former Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (who, at this point, looks like the only Republican who's going to bother to run) 39-30. That 9-point lead is consistent with the only other poll of this matchup, from back in May 2015 from Public Policy Polling, who gave Inslee a 46-34 lead.
The poll's field dates were Dec. 28-30, meaning it does account for the one thing that's gone noticeably wrong for Inslee. The public recently found out that a long-ignored software snafu at the Department of Corrections meant a number of prisoners got inadvertently released early. If Elway's poll is correct, though, the Seattle Times' efforts to turn this into an actual scandal seem to be having little impact on the public. Inslee's job performance numbers are at their lowest mark in any Elway poll since taking office — 39 percent "excellent or good" vs. 58 percent "fair or poor" — but that's only a very small drop from where he's been in previous Elway polls over the last couple years.
House:
● CA-36: GOP state Sen. Jeff Stone has been mulling a run against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz in this swingy Inland Empire seat, and he says he'll announce his plans on Saturday. Stone claims he hasn't decided what to do yet, and local GOP groups also say they don't know what his plans are. Obama only carried this seat 51-48, but Ruiz pulled off a decisive win during last year's GOP wave.
● FL-06: On Wednesday, Navy veteran Brandon Patty kicked off his bid for the GOP nod for this open seat. Patty worked for former Gov. Jeb Bush and one-time RNC chief Ed Gillespie, so he may have the connections he'll need to win.
So far, this has been a very low-energy GOP primary. Former New Smyrna Beach Mayor Adam Barringer has been running for a while but he hasn't raised much money, while ex-Rep. Sandy Adams put her campaign on hold last month due to an unspecified health issue, and she hasn't said if she'll jump back in. Rep. Dan Webster is talking about running here, though he doesn't represent much of this turf. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Dwayne Taylor is in. Romney won this seat, which is dominated by Volusia County, 52-47.
● FL-09: This week, state Sen. Darren Soto unveiled an endorsement from the International Association of Fire Fighters. Firefighters are usually good allies in political campaigns: They tend to stand out in crowds, and they're a group that almost everyone respects. Soto faces two other notable Democrats in the primary for this blue seat.
● IL-15: The deep-pocketed Club for Growth has endorsed state Sen. Kyle McCarter, who is challenging longtime Rep. John Shimkus in the GOP primary for this safely red seat. The Club is the most prominent group in the "tea party establishment," and their stamp of approval helps us pick out the strong conservative primary challengers from the mob of Some Dudes.
The Club also has never been shy about airing ads in races they care about, and McCarter will need some air support for his bid against Shimkus and his warchest. This is the second race where the Club has endorsed a GOP primary challenger over an incumbent: They're also backing Jim Duncan against Rep. Renee Ellmers in North Carolina.
● MN-02: Healthcare executive Angie Craig currently doesn't face any serious opposition for the Democratic nod in this swing seat, and notable Democrats want it to stay that way. On Wednesday, Craig received endorsements from Sen. Al Franken, Reps. Keith Ellison and Tim Walz, and EMILY's List.
● NV-04: Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen secured his biggest labor endorsement yet this week, with AFSCME throwing their support behind him. However the Culinary Union, Nevada's most influential labor group, has yet to weigh in on the four-way primary to face Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy.
● NY-03: Following Democratic Rep. Steve Israel's surprise retirement, tons of names have already surfaced in what will be a hotly contested race to succeed him. On the Republican side, state Sen. Jack Martins says he's "strongly considering" and Nathan Gonzales adds that he "looks all but certain to run." Martins would be a pretty good get for the GOP, but if he decides to run, it's likely because he figures he'd have a very hard time winning re-election to the Senate: In 2012, he barely scraped by against an underfunded Some Dude, so Democrats would have a great shot at picking up his 54 percent Obama Senate seat if he looks for the congressional escape hatch.
Other Republicans receiving Great Mentioner treatment include Assemblymen Andrew Raia and Chad Lupinacci; Huntington Councilman Eugene Cook; and Suffolk County Legislator Robert Trotta. Former Marine and Goldman Sachs associate David Gurfein had already been running before Israel's announcement and even earned the blessing of the NRCC, but his third-quarter haul of $131,000 isn't much in an expensive district like this and he's apt to get pushed to the wayside if someone like Martins gets in.
For Democrats, Suffolk County Legislator William Spencer appears to be the first to publicly express interest, and former Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper says he's intrigued, too. Politico also reports that DNC committeeman Robert Zimmerman is weighing a bid. Other possibilities include former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who badly lost a comeback bid in 2013 after getting caught sleepwalking in a major upset in 2009; Nassau Interim Finance Authority Chairman Jon Kaiman; Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern; Assemblyman Charles Lavine; and North Hempstead Councilwoman Anna Kaplan.
● NY-19: Democrats have been searching for a candidate for this swing seat ever since their top choice said no last month, but law professor Zephyr Teachout probably isn't who they had in mind. But Teachout, who held Gov. Andrew Cuomo to an unexpectedly weak 62-34 primary win last cycle and performed very well in the Hudson Valley, says she expects to decide in the next week. Teachout only moved to the district about a year ago, and the GOP wouldn't hesitate to portray her as a liberal outsider, a tactic they used with great success against Sean Eldridge in 2014.
● PA-08: Local Republicans seem content to have state Rep. Scott Petri as their nominee for this open swing seat, but another candidate may be interested. Nathan Gonzales reports that Brian Fitzpatrick, the brother of retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, recently quit his job with the FBI and moved back to Pennsylvania, possibly to prepare for a run.
Politics PA's Nick Field also says that there are plenty of rumors that Brian Fitzpatrick is considering, but his brother isn't saying anything and the NRCC "pled ignorance." If he gets in, Brian Fitzpatrick would benefit from the congressman's name recognition, though Field calls him "completely untested in the political arena."
● TN-09: For a little while it appeared that Steve Cohen, a white congressman representing a predominately African American seat, was done worrying about Democratic primary challenges. However, Cohen only defeated lawyer Ricky Wilkins 66-33 in 2014, a pretty dramatic drop from his 89-11 win two years before and his weakest re-election performance so far. This week, state Senate Minority Leader Lee Harris confirmed that he's interested in taking on Cohen.
Harris says he hasn't made a decision, but he's wasting little time arguing that Cohen has been in office too long and hitting the incumbent on his opposition to Tennessee Promise, a program that offers free admission for community or technical college to eligible high school students. Harris ran for this seat in 2006, but the first-time candidate took less than 1 percent in the crowded open seat primary. Since then, Harris has been elected to the Memphis City Council, and he won his state Senate seat by unseating a member of the powerful Ford family in the 2014 primary. Cohen backed Harris in that race and he does not sound happy that his former ally is considering challenging him. Cohen also reaffirmed that he's going to seek a sixth term in this safely blue seat.
Wilkins expressed interest in running a few months ago and if he and Harris both get in, Cohen would almost certainly benefit. There's no runoff in Tennessee, so Cohen could get by with just a plurality. It's unclear at this point if Cohen's disappointing 2014 performance was a one-time thing, or a sign that he's in real trouble this year.
● TX-29: While ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia is arguing that this heavily Hispanic district needs a Hispanic congressman, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is fine with Rep. Gene Green staying a while longer. The group's PAC endorsed Green, joining several prominent Houston Latino politicians in his corner; Rep. Filemon Vela also endorsed his colleague. The Democratic primary for this safely blue seat is March 1.
● VA-06: Longtime Republican incumbent Bob Goodlatte doesn't look particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge, but one tea partier is giving it a go. Air Force veteran Harry Griego, who almost toppled a state delegate in a 2015 primary, entered the race this week, arguing that Goodlatte is part of the weak GOP leadership. Goodlatte had $1.2 million on hand at the end of September, and the Judiciary Committee chair should be able to call in more resources if he needs help. This Roanoke-area seat is safely red.
● WA-07: The biggest development since long-time Rep. Jim McDermott's retirement announcement on Monday was probably state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw's announcement of his fourth-quarter fundraising, which certainly confirms that the 31-year-old is legit. Walkinshaw—who also rolled out another round of endorsements from fellow state legislators and environmental activists —says he raised $223,416 in December, when he was running against McDermott. (That puts McDermott's Monday retirement into new perspective, if one imagines Walkinshaw sharing that information with McDermott on last Friday.)
He won't have the race to himself, though. Two establishment-friendly progressives, state Sen. David Frockt and King County Councilor Joe McDermott (no relation) both reiterated their interest in the race. However, the list of prominent local pols saying "no" got longer. Unsurprisingly, a spokesman for Seattle Mayor Ed Murray said he won't run, and state Sen. Jamie Pedersen ruled himself out. Also ruling herself out was Port of Seattle Commissioner Courtney Gregoire, whose main asset would be name rec from her more-famous mom, ex-Gov. Chris Gregoire. More interestingly, two other state legislators who rushed to express their interest on Monday instead backed down soon after: state Rep. Gael Tarleton and state Sen. Reuven Carlyle.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Rhode Island SD-11: This was a close one, but the Republicans managed to hold on to this seat. Republican John Pagliarini Jr. defeated Democrat Jim Seveney by a 51-48 margin, with independent Gregory Blythe taking the remaining 1 percent of the vote. Democrats maintain a 32-5 supermajority in the chamber, with one independent.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
