The state of the race is currently at a Category IV Trumpocalypse, as polls and forecast models struggle to catch up to current events. The effects of Donald Trump’s bragging about sexual assault have yet to fully percolate through the electorate, and it will take some time for them to do so. See, for instance, how it took weeks for Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments to move the polls in the 2012 Missouri Senate race—and even then, the final polls badly understated just how big Akin’s defeat would be.
And what are the odds that this is the last Trump tape we hear about? This means an upgrade to a Category V Trumpageddon—Imminent Republican Destruction—is entirely possible. What might that entail?
A double-digit Clinton victory that traces the map above. Utah and Texas as swing states. A Democratic Senate with wins in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and maybe even Florida. And Democrats picking up anywhere from 20 to 35 Republican seats in the House. At the high end of that range, we're talking about Speaker Pelosi. Yes, you heard that right.
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