Donald Trump seems to start to realize that things might not go his way in the election. Unlike his earlier bravado where he boasted that things go swimmingly and he is winning — big league — everywhere, he is now sounding more subdued, more understanding that there is a good chance he is going to end up on the losing end of the election.
New York Times:
Donald Trump, Somewhat Subdued, Admits He Might Lose Election
Addressing a rally in Fletcher, N.C., in the more rural western part of the state, Mr. Trump offered a slightly more restrained version of his typically freewheeling speech, largely seeming to hew to his prepared remarks.
Gone were his complaints of a “rigged” and “stolen” election — which have drawn condemnation by Democrats and Republicans alike — and he did not, as he has recently, try to beat back accusations from 10 women who have come forward to accuse him of inappropriate sexual advances.
Instead, Mr. Trump offered an unusually candid, if still self-congratulatory, assessment of his debate performances — “I think the first one was fine, I think we won, easily, the second one, and the third one was our best,” he said — and acknowledged the possibility that he might not end up in the White House, after all.
The Trump campaign has said that Mr. Trump plans to increase his schedule in the final weeks, potentially holding as many as six rallies a day. Mr. Trump explained that he wanted to have no regrets should he lose.
“I don’t know what kind of shape I’m in, but I’ll be happy, and at least I will have known, win, lose or draw — — and I’m almost sure, if the people come out, we’re going to win — I will be happy with myself,” he said. “I don’t want to think back, ‘If only I did one more rally, I would have won North Carolina by 500 votes instead of losing it by 200 votes.’”.”
Donald Trump Just Admitted That He Is Losing The Election To Hillary Clinton
It was a rare moment of reality for Donald Trump on Friday. As the Republican nominee campaigned in North Carolina, he admitted that he would be happy with himself if he loses the election because he tried hard.
While campaigning in North Carolina, Trump said:
I’m working harder too, folks. I am working harder. I’ve got three stops today. We’ve got three of these today. We’ve got three. You know, I’ve got three on occasion I have four. I think I have one rest day where I have two. But these are massive rallies, and we’re going to do this for another nineteen days right up until the actual vote of November eighth, and then I don’t know what kind of shape I’m in, but I’ll be happy either way. But at least I will have known win, lose, or draw, and I’m almost sure that if the people come out, we’re going to win.
But I will be happy with myself because I always say I don’t want to think back if only I had did one more rally I would have won North Carolina by 500 votes instead of losing it by 200 votes. Right?
Trump’s rhetoric was a far cry from his statements about winning often and winning big. The GOP nominee seems to be admitting that he is losing. Donald Trump’s ego is far too big for him to admit that he is flat out losing the election, but his language is shifting.
What is causing this shift? Somebody must have sat down with Donald and showed him the Electoral College numbers. The simple truth is the race is over in any realistic sense. 272 Electoral College votes are already spoken for, unless the entire polling universe has completely failed to give a somewhat accurate picture of voter preferences.
There is no miracle to be had, those 272 Electoral College votes are secure. The entire battleground race occurs AFTER the initial 272 Electoral College votes are already banked.
So, we are looking at Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa.
While Ohio is tight right now (Pollster.com’s aggregate has Ohio as Hillary +2.3%), and the same is true for North Carolina, I think we will win both states.
But, regardless of who wins Ohio or North Carolina, let’s set the record straight here, because I believe some people, who constantly comment in poll diaries that they are very concerned and nervous, don’t know the exact state of the race, and they don’t realize that we actually CAN afford to lose BOTH Ohio and North Carolina and still have a comfortable Electoral College vote win. Maybe looking at the projections for each state gets rid of some of that anxiety, because one thing emerges crystal clear (barring a catastrophic, earthquake-like, event) when you do: WE HAVE 272 Electoral College votes secure. That is the election right there, folks.
As you can see, the projection sites are pretty much on the same page on where the race stands. NYT, 538, DailyKos, Huffington Post, Predictwise, Princeton Consortium, all show that we are looking very strong all the way down to New Hampshire. All states before New Hampshire are in the 90 percentile at least, up to 100%, with all projectors, except for Wisconsin which is at least at 90% with all but one projection site (Princeton), which has Wisconsin at 87%.
New Hampshire itself, the state that gets us over 272 Electoral College votes in this graph, is also very highly rated as a Democratic win, in the 90 percentile at least with all but 2 projection sites, and those two give NH still stellar 89% and 86% certainties to end up in Democratic hands.
We will get to 272 EVs with states that are all in the 90% or more certainty range (or thereabout) with all projection sites.
Going beyond 272 now we see Florida and its 29 EVs in a very strong position to fall into Democratic hands. 77% certainty with 538 but higher with everybody else, all the way up to 92% (Huffington Post.)
That gets us to 301 EVs.
Next we see Nevada, which also features a very strong Democratic win percentile, ranging from 72% to 83%. Winning Nevada gets us to 307 EVs.
North Carolina comes next, and it is also looking like a relatively safe pickup for us, ranging from 66% (NYT) to 81% (Huffington Post). If we get NC we are now at 322 EVs.
Ohio comes next, and it, too, looks like a pickup for Democrats and Hillary in this election, although Ohio is tighter. Win percentile projections range from 50% (Princeton) to 81% (Huffington Post). DailyKos gives a Democratic win in Ohio a chance of 70%. If we can win Ohio, and its 18 EVs, we’ll be up to 340 EVs.
Iowa might go the other way, but we might pull it out. The projections are mixed on Iowa, some projections give Iowa to Trump, some give it to Hillary (538 and Pew). Should we get Iowa as well, that brings the EV total up to 346.
Now, recently we’ve seen some movement in the polls that appear to have opened up Arizona and Georgia to a possible Democratic pickup. The projection sites aren’t as bullish on these two states as the more recent movement in those two states would suggest, but that may change when a few more polls showing tight races and/or Hillary leads in Arizona and Georgia. As of right now the projection sites show these two states this way:
As we can see, there is some movement in Arizona, which 538 and Princeton have flipped to the Democrats as of now. The Hillary campaign has announced that they will spend $2 Million Dollars in Arizona to try to win the state and with that expand the map.
Should we win Arizona as well, that would get us to 357 EVs.
Georgia is also hotly contested, and this state, which should be safe for Trump, might just go to Hillary. We don’t really see that reflected in the projections as of yet, but we have some recent data that might point in that direction. It is probably still a bit of a long shot, but who knows? Anyway, should we bring Georgia in as well, that would bring us to 373 EVs.
Nebraska has a special district with 1 EV, it is CD2. It is quite possible, from what is known and from what little polling there has been, that we pick up the Nebraska CD2 and capture that 1 EV. That would bring us to 374 EVs.
Getting to 374 EVs is somewhat realistic in this election. There are other states that have recently polled closer than they should (from Trump’s perspective) which are Utah, Alaska, Texas, Missouri, but it is probably too much of an ask to win any of those states in this election.
The most likely scenario, in the end, and in my honest opinion, is that we lose Iowa but win Arizona, that we don’t quite get Georgia but win the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District for a grand total of 352 EVs.
But, either way, we HAVE a secure 272 EVs that is not even really contested. Hillary is not putting money into Virginia, because it is safe, no money is being spent in New Hampshire or Colorado or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania because these states are considered secure by Team Hillary (and the projection sites and poll aggregators confirm that confidence.)
So, when you read “It’s over” or see highly respected poll analysts like Charlie Cook tweet “This race is OVER”, know that that is said because state polls are showing clearly where the EVs are going.
Donald Trump sounded subdued and almost resigned to be losing this election today because he, too, knows, that a stunning miracle has to occur in states like New Hampshire or Pennsylvania or Michigan to turn strong Hillary leads in those states completely on their heads while Trump can’t afford to lose any of Florida, North Carolina, and/or Ohio to have a chance. The combination of those scenarios happening is extremely unlikely. The numbers are obvious, even through the bubble in Trump Towers.
Take joy and comfort from the knowledge that the Presidential race is no longer seriously contested, that the battleground we have left is made up of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, all very good possibilities for a win for us, but none actually needed to get to 270.
But, work hard to GOTV. Every vote counts. Phone bank. Canvass. Talk your neighbors and friends into voting for Hillary and down ticket Democrats.
As Tim Kaine said recently:
“But when the wind’s at your back, it’s time to run faster.”
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