There are only 18 days left until Election Day and all of the opportunities for the candidates to face a large, national audience (the conventions and the presidential debates) are now behind us. There are no more major national levers in the candidates’ control. Barring some sort of additional external force that changes the trajectory — more Trump victims come forward, more Trump tapes are revealed, more real or forged Clinton emails are leaked, or a major national or global event like a terrorist attack occurs — the remaining battles will most likely be state-by-state final outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts.
And the consensus of the forecasters used by the New York Times’ Upshot is that the trajectory is moving away from Donald Trump, who was always behind and is now falling into a deeper and deeper pit.
For the last several months, I’ve been looking at the NYT Upshot every day and capturing the national and state-by-state data they show from several forecasters trying to predict the 2016 presidential race. Right now that includes five data modelers (the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, and The Huffington Post), three knowledgeable experts (the Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball), and PredictWise’s betting markets data, and I aggregate it to get their state-by-state consensus. Every Friday I post this weekly Aggregating the Presidential Aggregators diary. (I also have a weekly Aggregating the Senate Aggregators column every Wednesday.)
The big methodology change this week is that the Upshot has started to break out predictions for Maine and Nebraska by their Congressional District since those two states award Electoral Vote by Congressional District rather than the winner of the state’s popular vote receiving 100% of the state’s Electoral Votes. All of the forecasters are broken out this way except for DailyKos, so DK’s predictions for those states are only included for the two “At Large” Electoral Votes awarded to the winner of the state’s popular vote.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Big Picture
Data modelers’ current predictions of Hillary Clinton’s chances of being elected president in 2016 as of October 21, 2016.
This week, the data modelers’ forecasts for Hillary Clinton have reached an all-time high, averaging that she has a 93.5% chance of being elected President. FiveThirtyEight gives her an 87% chance, PredictWise gives her a 91% chance, the New York Times places it at 93%, The Huffington Post puts it at 95%, DailyKos pegs it at 96%, and the Princeton Election Consortium says she has a 99% chance of being the next President of the United States.
The Electoral College
For the last ten days, the forecasters have put more than 270 Electoral Votes worth of states as Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, even before looking at Lean Democratic or the tossup states.
Forecasters’ 2016 Electoral College predictions since last summer as of October 21, 2016.
Zooming in to just the last two weeks gives us a clearer picture.
Forecasters’ 2016 Electoral College predictions over the last two weeks as of October 21, 2016.
That deep and medium blue, representing Solid and Likely Democratic Electoral Votes, is pushing above the 50% mark, and there’s a lot more blue above that. In the meantime, there’s a lot of volatility in that red.
Let’s see what the actual numbers are doing.
2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MOVEMENT THIS WEEK
| 270 NEEDED TO WIN |
10/15 |
10/16 |
10/17 |
10/18 |
10/19 |
10/20 |
10/21 |
| SOLID DEMOCRATIC |
201 |
201 |
201 |
201 |
211 |
211 |
219 |
| LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
71 |
57 |
71 |
71 |
61 |
61 |
53 |
| LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
50 |
64 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
50 |
50 |
| TOSSUP — DEM |
18 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
19 |
| PURE TOSSUP |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
13 |
12 |
| TOSSUP — REP |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
| LEAN REPUBLICAN |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
16 |
16 |
| LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
16 |
16 |
28 |
30 |
68 |
19 |
77 |
| SOLID REPUBLICAN |
147 |
147 |
135 |
133 |
95 |
144 |
86 |
Normally you’d never see a “1” anywhere, but now that they’re breaking out Maine and Nebraska’s Congressional Districts, it’s possible. The other thing of those: look at how jumpy those Solid and Likely Republican numbers are. At one point, his Solid Republican numbers had risen to 154, helping him hold on to 197 Electoral Votes (his all time high), but no longer.
Let’s roll it up to see how that impacted the race.
2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTIONS
| 270 NEEDED TO WIN |
10/15 |
10/16 |
10/17 |
10/18 |
10/19 |
10/20 |
10/21 |
| DEMOCRATIC |
322 |
322 |
340 |
340 |
340 |
322 |
322 |
| TOSSUP |
26 |
26 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
37 |
37 |
| REPUBLICAN |
190 |
190 |
190 |
190 |
190 |
179 |
179 |
Trump had been at 190, but breaking out Maine and Nebraska’s Congressional Districts shows that the Second Congressional Districts in both states are in play and are in Tossup territory. But on Thursday, at least one other state he had a hold on also shifted into Tossup.
As with last week, that means that Clinton has an 85% chance or better of winning states totaling at least 51% of the Electoral College, and a 65% chance or better of winning states totaling at least 60% of the Electoral College.
Let’s see what’s going on with the individual states.
States That Have Changed Since Last Week
Thirteen states had movement over the course of the week: Alaska, Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. But it really counts as 18 because for Maine and Nebraska, it includes both their At Large forecasts as well as their individual Congressional District forecasts since this week was the first time they were included.
STATES AND DISTRICTS WITH ELECTORAL COLLEGE FORECASTING CHANGES THIS WEEK
| State |
10/15 |
10/16 |
10/17 |
10/18 |
10/19 |
10/20 |
10/21 |
| AK (3) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
| AZ (11) |
Lean R |
Lean R |
Lean R |
Lean R |
Lean R |
TU |
TU |
| IN (11) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
| ME (AL: 2) |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Solid D |
| ME (CD1: 1) |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| ME (CD2: 1) |
TU |
TU |
TU |
TU |
TU |
TU |
TU — D |
| MI (16) |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Solid D |
| MN (10) |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Likely D |
| NE (AL: 2) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| NE (CD1: 1) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| NE (CD2: 1) |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU |
TU |
| NE (CD3: 1) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| NH (4) |
Likely D |
Lean D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
| OH (18) |
TU — D |
TU — D |
Lean D |
Lean D |
Lean D |
TU — D |
TU — D |
| SC (9) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
| TX (38) |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
| VA (13) |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| WI (10) |
Likely D |
Lean D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Let’s cut straight to the biggest bombshell of the week: Arizona went from Leaning Republican straight to Pure Tossup, bypassing Tossup — Republican entirely. As of today, the data modelers’ consensus forecast is that Clinton has a 46% chance of winning the state that since World War II has only twice voted for the Democratic candidate: once in 1948, when they went with Truman, and the second time in 1996 when they went with a different Clinton who was then up for re-election.
Another potential boomlet is Texas, still shown as reasonably strong for Trump as Likely Republican, but several new polls show Clinton within striking distance. Latino voters in the state, whom the Bush family has managed to woo over the years, really don’t like Trump. Go figure. Even if Clinton doesn’t win the state, I wonder if there are some Congressional Districts with only a very narrow Republican majority that could be pushed over the edge with heavy Democratic turnout and discouraged Republicans?
Alaska is another interesting one, a state that has only once voted for a Democrat, in the Johnson wave of 1964 when the Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater, another candidate who was seen as dangerous and the establishment didn’t rally around, though proportionally few came outright against him the way many have come out against Trump.
Obama won Nebraska’s Second Congressional District in 2008, the only time since the passage of the Twelfth Amendment that a state didn’t give 100% of its Electoral Votes to a single candidate other than because of faithless electors. And now it’s considered Pure Tossup, with Clinton having a 48% chance of winning it again. Meanwhile, Maine’s Second Congressional District has never voted differently than the rest of the state, but it is more conservative and for a long time was considered a pick-up opportunity for Trump. But his chances are slipping away, and now Clinton is seen as having a 58% chance of winning that district, too.
Though other states like Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin did a little wobbling, there were no meaningful changes there to cause worry or jubilation.
Tossup States
Here’s where the data modelers currently place Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the battleground states.
Forecasters’ current predictions of a Clinton victory in 2016 battleground states as of October 21, 2016.
And yeah, hard to see, so let’s just look at the closest races:
Forecasters’ current predictions of a Clinton victory in the eight closest 2016 battleground states as of October 21, 2016.
These are just the top eight states. Clinton has a better than 90% chance of winning Colorado and Pennsylvania, a better than 80% chance of winning Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, and a nearly 70% chance of winning Ohio. Even in Iowa, which many were once ready to write off, she now has a 54% chance of winning. And Arizona — Arizona! — she currently has a 48% chance of winning.
We’re into the final stretch. Only 18 more days before Election Day. Just two more of these Friday presidential aggregator updates and two more of the Wednesday Senate updates, though I may do a final forecast right before the election.